Berenberg首次覆盖太空板块并给予Rocket Lab、AST SpaceMobile、Planet Labs、HawkEye 360买入评级

Berenberg late Tuesday launched coverage of the U.S. and European space sector with a bullish view of an industry it expects to grow from more than $500 billion in 2025 to over $1 trillion by 2030. In a report published on September 1, analyst Michael Filatov argued that falling launch costs, rising military budgets and demand for sovereign space infrastructure are creating a larger investable market. The bank initiated Rocket Lab ( RKLB ), AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS ), Planet Labs ( PL ) and HawkEye 360 ( HAWK ) with Buy ratings, while assigning Avio a Hold rating. The bank’s central thesis is that the steep decline in the cost of reaching orbit has made satellite constellations and other space-based services commercially viable. Berenberg estimates that reusable rockets have reduced the cost of carrying a kilogram into low Earth orbit from about $54,000 during the Space Shuttle era to less than $1,000 on SpaceX’s Falcon 9. That decline helped annual payload deployments rise from 135 in 2010 to 4,605 in 2025, according to the report. The amount of mass placed in orbit increased almost ninefold between 2015 and 2025. Defense budgets provide near-term demand Although commercial services account for most of the wider space economy, Berenberg identified defense and national sovereignty as its most dependable near-term growth drivers. Global military space spending reached an estimated $74 billion in 2025. The proposed US Space Force budget for fiscal 2027 stands at $71.2 billion, while the European Union’s proposed 2028-2034 budget includes €131 billion for defense, security and space, the report said. Governments increasingly view dependence on foreign launch vehicles, satellite communications and observation networks as a national-security vulnerability. This is encouraging them to fund domestic or allied suppliers even when cheaper alternatives may be available elsewhere. Berenberg said that dynamic supports launch providers as well as companies operating communications and intelligence constellations. Every company covered in the report has some exposure to defense demand. Rocket Lab emerges as preferred alternative to SpaceX Berenberg described launch capacity as the industry’s principal bottleneck and Rocket Lab ( RKLB ) as the most credible Western alternative to SpaceX ( SPCX ). Rocket Lab’s Electron is already the second-most-active launch vehicle globally, according to the report. Its larger Neutron rocket, which is being developed to serve the market between small launchers and SpaceX’s Falcon 9, could extend the company into higher-value missions. The bank also highlighted Rocket Lab’s satellite-components business and its expected combination with Iridium, saying the latter would add scarce communications spectrum, recurring cash flow and exposure to defense, aviation, and maritime customers. Those ambitions carry significant execution risk. Neutron has not yet reached orbit, while further delays or a failed launch could undermine Berenberg’s forecasts. SpaceX could also use its scale to compress prices in Neutron’s intended market. Satellite connectivity and data attract Buy ratings Berenberg named direct-to-device communications as one of the sector’s most promising commercial markets. Its preferred exposure is AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS ), which is developing satellites intended to deliver broadband directly to ordinary mobile phones. The company has partnerships with more than 60 mobile-network operators covering approximately three billion potential subscribers, including agreements with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone, the report said. Berenberg views access to carriers’ low-band spectrum as a particularly important competitive advantage. However, AST SpaceMobile still needs to deploy and operate a large constellation. The program is capital-intensive, has experienced delays and remains exposed to regulatory, launch and financing risks. In Earth observation, the bank favors Planet Labs. The company images the world’s landmass daily and has accumulated an archive covering almost a decade. Berenberg argued that artificial intelligence could increase the archive’s value by making satellite data easier to search and turning imagery into products such as crop forecasts, damage assessments and intelligence alerts. Planet achieved its first full year of adjusted earnings and free-cash-flow profitability in fiscal 2026, according to the report. Its risks include heavy government-customer concentration, long sovereign procurement cycles and high expectations already reflected in its valuation. HawkEye 360 ( HAWK ) offers a different form of orbital intelligence by locating and analyzing radio-frequency emissions. Berenberg said its accumulated signal library and relationships with government customers make the business harder to replicate than conventional satellite imaging. The company is also replacing older satellites with systems that Berenberg estimates can capture about 80% as many signals at roughly one-quarter of the cost. Procurement delays, competition and a large increase in tradeable shares following lock-up expirations remain potential headwinds. Avio held back by investment cycle Berenberg initiated Italian rocket-propulsion specialist Avio ( AVVSY )( AVVOF ) at Hold despite seeing strong demand for solid rocket motors in Europe and the United States. Avio occupies sole-source positions on Europe’s Ariane 6 and Vega C programs, while defense propulsion is expected to rise from about 15% of its revenue mix in 2025 to approximately 30% by 2030. The bank nevertheless expects spending on new US manufacturing capacity to constrain profitability until production reaches scale around 2029. Its €33 target offered only limited upside from the €29.42 reference price used in the report. Valuations leave little room for failure Berenberg cautioned that the expansion of the space economy will not necessarily produce strong shareholder returns across the sector. The largest risk is that progress in reusable heavy-lift rockets stalls before launch costs fall far enough to support speculative markets such as orbital data centers and large-scale space manufacturing. Overinvestment could also produce the same pattern seen in the railway and telecommunications industries: rapidly expanding use accompanied by weak returns on capital. Other threats include launch accidents, orbital debris, spectrum disputes, changing government budgets and tighter financing conditions for companies that remain unprofitable and capital-intensive. The report’s stock recommendations therefore favour either scarce launch capacity or differentiated constellations and data that cannot easily be replicated. In Berenberg’s view, launch providers hold pricing power today, but over the longer term, the greatest value may migrate to connectivity, intelligence and other services delivered from orbit. Berenberg set price targets of $83 for Rocket Lab ( RKLB ), $92 for AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS ), $25 for Planet Labs ( PL ) and $24 for HawkEye ( HAWK ) 360. Its target for Avio ( AVVSY )( AVVOF ) is €33. The targets implied upside ranging from about 27% for Rocket Lab and Planet Labs to roughly 56% for AST SpaceMobile, based on the reference prices in the report.