Michael Burry 再次公开看空 Palantir，质疑估值、SaaS属性、应收账款、股权激励与治理费用

“Big Short” investor Michael Burry has renewed his bearish view on Palantir ( PLTR ), criticizing the company’s valuation, business model, accounting, stock-based compensation, and CEO Alex Karp’s aircraft-related expenses, among other things. Palantir’s ( PLTR ) AI-driven rally has pushed its market capitalization to about $432.36B, but Burry argued that the company’s growth story masks several warning signs. “Palantir is back in the stratosphere,” he said in a now unavailable post on X. “The facts have not changed.” Business Model and Valuation Burry described Palantir as more like a consulting business than a software company. “Palantir is a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand,” he said on X, adding that even if the corporate AI spending cycle lasts several more years, “the fall will be just as epic, or more so.” He also warned that Palantir’s valuation could eventually fall below $100B. Consulting vs. SaaS Burry questioned Palantir’s software classification based on its deferred-revenue profile. He said the company’s pattern more closely resembles consulting firm Accenture ( ACN ) than subscription-software companies such as Salesforce ( CRM ) and ServiceNow ( NOW ), calling the comparison the “kidney punch” to Palantir’s software narrative. He highlighted Palantir’s deferred revenue-to-revenue ratio of about 32%, compared with roughly 31% for Accenture and between 80% and 207% for the SaaS companies he cited. “Palantir is just not what it claims to be,” Burry said. Accounts Receivable Burry also pointed to Palantir’s rising accounts receivable as another concern. Receivables increased to $1.49B as of June 30 from $1.04B at the end of 2025. One customer accounted for 27% of receivables, even though no customer represented more than 10% of revenue. Stock Compensation and Taxes Burry also criticized Palantir’s stock-based compensation and related tax benefits. The company reported about $1.6B in pretax GAAP income in 2025 but paid no federal cash taxes after using net operating loss carryforwards. Federal NOLs rose to $9B from $5.5B, which Burry largely linked to deductions related to stock compensation. “Shareholders are funding employee compensation through dilution,” he said. “The government is subsidizing Palantir through gargantuan tax shields.” He also pointed to Palantir’s cancellation of a $1B buyback authorization after repurchasing roughly $75M of stock in 2025. Karp’s Private Aircraft Spending Burry separately criticized spending related to CEO Alex Karp’s personally owned aircraft. Palantir reported $17.2M in related expenses in 2025, up from $7.7M a year earlier. Burry dubbed the expense the “$17.2 million mile-high club” and described the spending as “profligate” and “egregious.”