HPE三季度业绩超预期并上调展望，但AI服务器利润率压力引发股价下跌

HPE's ( HPE ) third quarter 2026 results featured momentum across all of its business segments and an increase in its outlook, but shares were down 4% during pre-market trading as analysts pointed out a slight moderation of margins. "Management cited +42% y/y normalized order growth, a pipeline running at multiples of backlog, and newly secured multi-year supply agreements as the basis for greater confidence, raising its FY27 revenue growth framework to +14-18% in Cloud & AI and +14-17% in Networking ( vs. +8-12% in each prior )," said J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Cardoso in a Thursday investor note. "That said, investor sentiment will likely be tempered by a guide that embeds a deceleration in Cloud & AI revenue growth alongside margin normalization in FY27, attributed to a more dilutive AI-server mix and a reversion toward more typical traditional server margins." J.P. Morgan retained its Overweight rating and $70 price target on the stock. Meanwhile, Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating and nudged its price target up to $88 from $82. "Given the opportunity with agentic AI, management is committed to procuring supply, and F27 will see higher rev but worse mix (higher mix of AI rev)," said BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan in a note. "While this drives negative GM leverage, by controlling OpEx, HPE is driving positive OM leverage. We see guidance as conservative (server upside from Agentic AI and AMD Helios is excluded from the networking outlook). Lower restructuring, Juniper synergies and networking mix drive solid FCF for F27." BofA increased its full-year 2026 revenue estimate to $46.6B from $45.3B and EPS to $3.83 from $3.47. Citi also retained its Buy rating on HPE and raised its price target to $76 from $74. Finally, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating but inched its price target down to $67 from $69. The financial firm noted that order strength is not the issue, but rather potential supply constraints. "Order strength isn't the issue—across the board (i.e., servers, networking, etc.) HPE saw strong double-digit order growth in the quarter, inclusive of a GW-scale networking deal signed with ORCL, followed by a $3B+ traditional server deal with a major hyperscaler that closed after quarter end," said Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring in a note. "Supply is the issue—in servers and networking. Management made clear that they have signed new supply agreements and have a better ('very solid') line of sight towards supply going forward—which covers their FY26/FY27 guide—so we feel better about meeting or exceeding expectations the next 5 quarters. But for a company that has yet to shake the historical reputation of inconsistent execution, tonight's results don't help when compared to peers and high buyside expectations." Competitor Dell ( DELL ) was down 1% during pre-market trading on Thursday. Cisco ( CSCO ) had inched down 0.3%, and Arista Networks ( ANET ) was relatively static.