Seeking AlphaQwen · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:NO▲ 赚 +0.20% · 已结算把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:27:47(美东 10:27)·⟳ 抓取 22:27:55 +8s·⚡ 决策 09-03 22:33:01 +5m06s·54.2 天前
Nscale与Figure AI签署$35亿多年期GPU算力协议,Aker ASA持有Nscale 22.8%股权为最直接上市受益标的
Aker ASA持有Nscale 22.8%股权,Nscale为其第二大资产。$3.5-6B合同使Nscale收入积压增加10-18%,加上获得Figure股权的期权价值,对Aker NAV有3-5%的潜在增厚。消息刚发布,奥斯陆市场仅剩余3分钟且当日仅涨1%,大概率未充分定价。
📄 原文Seeking Alpha↗ 原文
Nscale inks multi-year deal with Figure to provide cloud compute powered by Nvidia GPUs
Nscale, an AI cloud platform, has signed a multi-year agreement with the robotics maker Figure to provide it with Nvidi…
▲ 赚 +0.20%入场 09-04 开盘 @1,610 → 离场 09-07 开盘 @1,620
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑做多Aker:Nscale $35亿新合同增厚其第二大资产,消息未及定价,次日开盘补涨
怎么买 开盘买入 不高于昨收 +4%(超上限不成交)
怎么卖 止盈 +4%(半仓)/+8%(清仓) · 止损 -4% · 时间止损 5日
不做 英伟达(NVDA.US)
超大市值($4T+)软催化:$3.5-6B多年期合同占年收入<2%、占市值<0.15%,不改变收入/利润预期,无短线交易价值
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 AKER.NO Aker ASA
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 AKER.NO Aker ASA
| 收益状态 | +0.20% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-09-04 · 开盘 · @1610 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-09-07 · 开盘 · @1620 |
| 毛收益 | +0.62% |
| 成本 | +0.42% |
| 净收益 | +0.20% |
| 计入收益 | +0.20% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-09-04 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-28 03:52
研究档案
结论摘要
Nscale与Figure签署$35亿多年期GPU算力协议→Nscale收入积压从~$34B增加10-18%并获得Figure股权→Aker ASA持有Nscale 22.8%为其第二大资产→Aker NAV潜在增厚3-5%→消息发布时奥斯陆市场即将收盘且仅涨1%,次日开盘存在定价空间。风险在于股价已处52周高位且20日涨23%,交易为增量而非变革性。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-03 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
关键理由
- Aker持有Nscale 22.8%股权(NOK 32B,占GAV 26%),$3.5-6B新合同使Nscale积压增加10-18%,Aker NAV潜在增厚3-5%
- Nscale获得Figure股权,若人形机器人赛道估值提升,Aker间接获得高弹性期权敞口
- 消息发布时奥斯陆市场仅剩3分钟,当日仅+1%,次日开盘存在补涨定价窗口
主要风险
- 股价已处52周高位且20日累涨23%,存在动量回撤和拥挤度风险
- 合同为多年期且部署始于2027H2,收入确认遥远;Figure尚未商业化,存在履约和信用风险
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-05-08 · 影响 weakens
Q1报告显示股价对NAV折价28%(当时股价1070 vs NAV 1478),当前股价1606已超过Q1 NAV,说明市场已给予溢价。但Q2 NAV可能已增长。未发现重大负面信息。
检索:Aker ASA Nscale risk negative NAV discount 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 none
NVDA Rubin平台CY2027E收入$130-280B,$3.5-6B仅占1-4%。黄仁勋GTC2026确认Blackwell+Rubin累计至2027年至少$1T。该合同对NVDA不具重大性。
检索:NVDA Vera Rubin demand materiality megacap
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足导致降低置信度至5,仓位降至probe
方向:无高相似先例;控股公司组合公司签署大额合同的先例极为稀缺
涨幅量级:无法用先例校准幅度,仅基于NAV增厚逻辑估算3-5%
形态:无见光死/高开低走证据
工具执行结果 · 成功 9 · 降级 2 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,309 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`figure robotics nscale compute partnership $3.5b | nscale figure ai gpu deal | nscale vera rubin 100000 gpu agreement`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 72.0/72 小时、7277 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 464 ms
{ - direct_instrument_candidates 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 710 ms
{ - direct_instrument_candidates 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 659 ms
{ - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 3,421 ms
{ - query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 455 ms
{"result": "modeling_kb 命中 8 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 本次命中证据最新 2026-03-18 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 5 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [A] Blackwell + Rubin 官方可见度(累计至 CY26 末) · 表1:分型号 GPU 出货/产出量(百万颗 GPU,日历年) · CY2027E = ≥$1T(官方;Rubin Ultra/Groq不含) 百万颗 ⟨预测⟩[1][2][3]\n 依据: 黄仁勋 - kb_fetch_document 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,425 ms
{ - stock_quote 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 3,643 ms
{ - search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 446 ms
{"result": "search_case_library「AKER.OL」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 1 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 1 条;ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ AKER.OL:相关历史决策 1 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n【对所查标的真 ENTER 过的:0 条 —— 相关案例里没有该标的自己的 ENTER 腿】\n【最近 1 条其它决策(多为「不做」,用来看这票最近在被什么消息刷屏)】\n• 2026-07-05 UTC 不做 — Schneider Electric Agree - market_clock 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 263 ms
无法识别 market;可给美股/US、港股/HK 等市场名或代码 - kb_search 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 9,492 ms
{
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,323 字
Nscale, an AI cloud platform, has signed a multi-year agreement with the robotics maker Figure to provide it with Nvidia's ( NVDA ) Vera Rubin platform with the potential to reach up to 100,000 GPUs, the companies announced today. The initial deal is valued at $3.5B with the potential to scale up to more than $6B. Nscale plans to begin deploying GPUs at its data center in Barstow, Texas, during the second half of 2027. As part of the agreement, Nscale will become a shareholder of Figure and the robotics company's preferred compute provider. What's more, Nscale will explore the potential to use Figure's humanoid robots to scale its supply chain. "Humanoid robots extend physical AI into the world designed for people—opening a major new industry," said Nvidia CEO and founder Jensen Huang. " Nscale and Figure have activated the robotics flywheel: training Figure's models on Nvidia Vera Rubin through Nscale's AI cloud, validating them in Nvidia Isaac Sim, and deploying them on Nvidia GPUs in Figure's robots. This is the physical AI flywheel that will accelerate the path from models to robots in the world." Nvidia has emerged as a key investor in both the British-based Nscale and the San Jose, California-based robotics firm Figure AI, which was founded in 2022. "To bring humanoid robots to every home in the world, we are largely constrained by data and compute," said Figure founder and CEO Brett Adcock. "Our AI model, Helix, becomes more capable the same way every learned system does: with more data and compute. Today we're excited to partner with Nscale to bring the compute required to make this vision a reality." Figure's latest robot, Figure 03, has been engineered to work in households, with the capability to navigate stairs, tight corners, and shifting layouts. It is not yet available for sale to the general public. The Figure 03 robot made an appearance at the White House earlier this year with First Lady Melania Trump during a technology summit. It is rumored to have a potential sale price of $20,000 to $25,000 when it becomes generally available. Its primary competitor will likely be Tesla's ( TSLA ) Optimus robot, which is also not yet available to the general public. It is expected to have a price tag of $20,000 to $30,000, with Tesla targeting general availability by late 2027.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。