摩根士丹利称苹果9月9日“Surprise and Shine”发布会为近十年最重要，预测首款折叠屏iPhone当季出货约650万部、贡献约140亿美元收入，并预计iPhone Pro同款涨价200–500美元

Apple's ( AAPL ) September 9 fall product launch event, "Surprise and Shine," might stand as its most significant in nearly a decade, according to the analysts at Morgan Stanley. "Apple's 'Surprise and Shine' product launch event next Wednesday should follow a very similar format to past years—a 90-minute presentation of Apple's newest device introductions, namely the Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, AirPods 5, iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max, and, most importantly, its first foldable iPhone," said Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Erik Woodring, in an investor report. "However, the event will prove to be anything but ordinary. This is because for the first time in 15 years, Tim Cook will not headline the event; instead, new CEO John Ternus will lead the company into its first major iPhone form factor change in nearly 10 years, unveiling the much-anticipated iPhone Fold (Ultra?), alongside what are likely to be the broadest and most significant, like-for-like iPhone price hikes in company history," he added. If Apple's first foldable phone captures a positive reaction from consumers, it could contribute significantly to revenue for the December quarter. "We currently forecast ~6.5M foldable iPhone shipments in the December quarter, translating to ~$14B of revenue, or 16% of total December quarter iPhone revenue," Woodring noted. "Beyond the near-term financial contribution, it will be worth watching how Apple leverages the larger form factor and whether it delivers use cases that are better on a foldable vs. simply a larger screen—and most importantly, how the device really feels in hand. If consumer reception is strong, we believe the category could ultimately become larger than current supply chain forecasts imply." Another critical point to consider is how consumers will react to price hikes across the new iPhone lineup. Morgan Stanley expects like-for-like iPhone Pro price increases will range from $200 to $500. The financial firm expects the 512GB foldable iPhone will start at $2,399 and the 2TB model will go for $3,199. "With NAND and DRAM costs rising sharply, we continue to expect Apple to raise the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by $200, with potentially larger increases at higher storage tiers," Woodring said. "Based on our memory cost forecasts for Apple, such pricing actions would allow Apple to maintain iPhone gross margins of ~40%, broadly in line with the FY21-FY25 average of 39.9%."