花旗美股策略师Chronert称标普500要到8,100点需AI与传统板块同时发力

Reaching Scott Chronert's S&P 500 ( SP500 ) target of 8,100 will require both halves of the market to pull their weight, according to the Citi Research head of U.S. equity strategy. In an interview with CNBC as third-quarter earnings season gets underway, Chronert explained that the index needs sustained performance from AI-influenced stocks—which he argues now comprise just over half of the benchmark—alongside a recovery in the more traditional, macro-driven remainder. "The path there is that we need both parts of the market performing," Chronert said. "We need that AI influence component that we argue is just over half of the index as well as the other half that's going to be to a more traditional macro drummer." For the macro-sensitive portion of the market to regain momentum, Chronert emphasized that some of the current inflation and Federal Reserve hawkishness concerns need to recede. He pointed to the earnings multiple as the key variable for the rest of the year, noting that where the 10-year rate goes—driven largely by inflation and oil prices ( CL1:COM ), ( CO1:COM )—remains "pretty uncertain." Rate-sensitive sectors have already taken a significant hit. Chronert noted that utilities ( XLU ), real estate ( XLRE ), consumer discretionary ( XLY ), and banks ( KBE ), ( KRE ), ( KBWB ) have all declined roughly 10% since late August, setting the stage for potential mean reversion if macro conditions improve. "The mean reversion on that part of the market is what can become very mission critical here in terms of giving the overall index some legs into the end of the year," Chronert said. He added that while the mega-cap growth and AI components appear well-positioned given strong revenue trends from the second quarter, broader participation is essential. "All told, I would say that we need this broadening trade to come back to get to my 8,100 target." S&P 500 ETFs: ( SPY ), ( VOO ), ( IVV ), ( RSP ), ( SSO ), ( UPRO ), ( SH ), ( SDS ), ( SPXU ), ( FXAIX ), ( VFIAX ), ( VFFSX ), and ( SWPPX ).