高盛调仓暖通空调股：升特灵TT至买入、下调LII与CARR至中性，重申江森自控JCI买入

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday upgraded Trane Technologies ( TT ) to Buy from Neutral while downgrading Lennox International ( LII ) and Carrier Global ( CARR ) to Neutral from Buy, citing a widening divide between commercial and residential heating, ventilation and air conditioning markets. The investment bank also reiterated its Buy rating on Johnson Controls International ( JCI ), which remains on its Americas Conviction Buy list. Goldman expects suppliers of large-scale commercial and industrial HVAC systems to continue outperforming residential equipment manufacturers over the next 12 months. The rating changes reflect diverging demand trends across the HVAC industry, with investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers supporting orders for commercial cooling systems. Meanwhile, residential HVAC manufacturers face sluggish housing activity, affordability pressures and intensifying competition that could limit their ability to raise prices. For investors, Goldman sees stronger earnings growth potential among commercial equipment suppliers even after their substantial stock-market gains. Commercial HVAC stocks extend lead The performance gap between the two segments has widened considerably over the past year. Johnson Controls shares have gained about 47%, while Lennox has fallen 33%, illustrating the contrasting investor sentiment toward commercial and residential HVAC suppliers. Goldman expects that divergence to persist, partly because its fiscal 2027 earnings forecasts for Johnson Controls and Trane exceed Wall Street consensus estimates. The firm's projections for Johnson Controls are 6% above consensus, while its estimates for Trane are 4% higher. By comparison, Goldman's fiscal 2027 estimates for Lennox and Carrier are 4% and 3% below consensus, respectively. Those differences suggest greater potential for upward earnings revisions among commercial HVAC manufacturers and downward revisions among their residential counterparts. Residential HVAC faces pricing, demand pressures Goldman warned that competitive conditions in the residential HVAC market may be undergoing a structural shift, with manufacturers facing greater difficulty implementing price increases. The industry also continues to contend with weak demand as elevated housing costs and limited home sales discourage spending on heating and cooling equipment. Inventory levels have largely returned to normal following disruptions associated with the industry's transition to new refrigerants in 2024 and 2025, according to Goldman. However, that normalization has not translated into a meaningful recovery in underlying demand. The combination of increased competition, limited pricing power and subdued housing activity could weigh on earnings growth for Lennox and Carrier, supporting Goldman's decision to lower its ratings on both companies. AI infrastructure spending The outlook for commercial HVAC remains considerably stronger, driven partly by the construction of data centers and other infrastructure needed to support artificial intelligence workloads. Goldman noted that backlogs at Johnson Controls and Trane have increased by approximately 50% on average this year, reflecting sustained demand for large-scale cooling and related equipment. The bank expects orders to remain robust despite those growing backlogs. One reason is that longer-cycle components of the AI and data center infrastructure supply chain, including power generation equipment, are already securing orders for delivery beyond 2030. That extended investment horizon suggests demand for commercial cooling infrastructure could remain elevated beyond the current construction cycle, providing Johnson Controls and Trane with greater revenue visibility. Goldman's rating changes underscore its preference for HVAC manufacturers with exposure to commercial infrastructure spending over companies more dependent on residential replacement demand and housing-market conditions.