Gartner预测2030年前80% neocloud将无法独立存续，AI云股盘中集体重挫

Neocloud stocks entered a tailspin on Wednesday after a report by Gartner predicted 80% of neoclouds will cease independent operations by 2030 if AI infrastructure spending continues at its breakneck speed. CoreWeave ( CRWV ) led the collapse, with shares crumbling 15% by noon trading, while Digital Ocean ( DOCN ) receded 14%. Hut 8 ( HUT ) plunged 10%. Nebius ( NBIS ) and IREN ( IREN ) sank 9%, while Cipher Digital ( CIFR ) and Applied Digital ( APLD ) careened down 8.7% "In 2026, AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on AI infrastructure , and are forecast to invest an additional $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030," said Will Sommer , senior director analyst at Gartner on Wednesday. "However, our research indicates that enterprise and consumer AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns on all planned AI capital expenditures during this period." The analysis contends that AI data center owners need to generate a cumulative $8.5T in revenue by 2030 to cover announced capital spending, financing costs, and a 12% return on invested capital, which Gartner assumed as the hurdle rate of investment capital. Unfortunately, AI revenue related to data centers is only forecast to reach $3.6T by 2030. "Because most AI-native providers operate asset-light business models, we predict that less than half of AI revenue will be earned by providers that own significant AI infrastructure," Somner added. These forecasts prompted Gartner to predict that more than 80% of neocloud providers will not survive as independent businesses much beyond 2030. A continued AI infrastructure investment trajectory could leave more than $4T in asset value exposed to write-down risk through 2032. In this scenario, Gartner does not expect the 12% ROIC to be achieved until at least the end of 2032. Under this dire forecast, the large hyperscalers such as Amazon ( AMZN ), Google ( GOOG )( GOOGL ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) are in a better position to survive. This is due to highly diversified and giant revenue streams. Meanwhile, neoclouds must show strong returns on AI-optimized Infrastructure-as-a-Service, or IaaS, platforms to maintain operations. Gartner expects AI-optimized spending will expand from $66B in 2027 to $174B by 2030. "The growth in spending on AI-optimized IaaS will be too low for most AI compute providers to recover their AI investments before the current generation of AI semiconductors is replaced," said Sommer.