台积电Q3营收净利双创历史新高、Q4指引中值超共识约6%并上调全年增速至约44%，但AI板块宏观去估值致盘前反跌约3%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's ( TSM ) latest quarterly results and outlook provided no indications of a slowdown related to the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, as its most advanced node capacity continues to rise. "Without giving any details, TSMC management sees potential for AI accelerator revenue growth to be above the current guidance of mid- to high-50s CAGR in 2024-2029," said Needham analyst Charles Shi in a Thursday investor note. "To support AI buildout, TSMC said it is now adding four new fabs for N3, including two in Taiwan, one in the U.S. and one in Japan." Needham maintained its Buy rating and increased its price target to $560 from $530. "We expect 2027 is likely a banner year for TSMC in terms of reaching record revenue and sustaining high growth," Shi noted. "We are also raising our CapEx estimates for 2027 and 2028 to $90B and $100B, respectively, to account for additional N3 build-out and potential TX expansion." Nearly every business segment demonstrated solid revenue growth during the third quarter at TSMC. High-performance computing increased 22% quarter over quarter, smartphone revenue climbed 10%, IoT rose 5% and automotive gained 23%. TSMC expects fourth-quarter revenue of $52.3B to $54.3B, which is well above the analysts' consensus of $50.48B. "Management characterized AI demand as extremely robust with no sign of a slowdown and noted that its own diligence (which now includes sending teams to check the progress of U.S. data center build-outs and power supply) continues to indicate demand well above TSMC's ability to supply," said Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson in a note. "Asked about its AI accelerator revenue CAGR (mid to high 50s from 2024 to 2029, a narrow definition that excludes CPUs), management indicated growth will 'probably be higher.'" Wedbush reiterated its Outperform rating on the stock. Susquehanna also retained its Positive rating and increased its price target to $600 from $430 as capacity continues to increase. "N2, annual capacity is expected to more than double in 2027," said Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini in a note. "N3, another Tainan fab (volume production 1H28), on top of the one already scheduled for 1H27. Arizona Fab 2 volume production now begins in 3Q27, slightly ahead of schedule. US expansion is broadening beyond Arizona, with Texas under evaluation. A14: risk production on track for 2027 and volume production for 2028. Early activity is running ahead of N2 at the comparable stage. Advanced packaging: TSM is in production at 5x reticle size and is working toward 9x and 14x." Despite the near-perfect execution by the world's largest foundry, TSMC shares declined about 3% during early trading on Thursday. However, virtually the entire tech sector was down due to an array of investor concerns around AI. During the earnings call, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei indicated there is no sign of a slowdown. "According to management, the feedback is so far so good, and cloud providers are well-prepared," said Seeking Alpha analyst Julia Ostian . "When asked about anything AI-related, like power, memory, and other bottlenecks, Wei said they put all of it into their assessment, and they still see demand higher than supply. I really trust them because they have high accessibility, and they are using it to be sure their business will continue booming and, if not, to be the first ones to know when something is off." Competing foundries were down as well on Thursday as Intel ( INTC ) and GlobalFoundries ( GFS ) both declined about 4%.