Seeking Alpha 复盘文章：Moderna 癌症疫苗 ESMO 数据公布前股价已大涨，分析师反而转空——无新增基本面事实

Moderna ( MRNA ) has clearly outperformed after announcing an Oct. 24 presentation that will include additional late-stage trial data for its cancer shot developed with Merck ( MRK ), even as analysts have become increasingly bearish on the vaccine maker. Shares of the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech surged more than 170% on Aug. 19 after topline data indicated that the messenger-RNA-based vaccine named intismeran autogene succeeded in a Phase 3 trial named INTerpath-001 for patients with melanoma. The stock has continued its upward trajectory following an announcement in late September that indicated plans to share additional data from INTerpath-001 next week at this year’s European Society for Medical Oncology Congress. With Moderna ( MRNA ) adding nearly 38% since then compared with a 5% decline in the broader biotech sector, analysts have become even more cautious on the company, which has a Neutral rating across all three valuation metrics tracked by Seeking Alpha. “While the positive phase 3 readout materially increases the expected probability of approval of Intismeran in certain melanoma settings, there is still a long way to go before Intismeran is approved in multiple other applications,” SA analyst Beta Sigma Quant wrote with a Sell rating on Moderna ( MRNA ). Based on a DCF calculation, Beta Sigma Quant attributed only $66B incremental value to the initial INTerpath-001 readout, far below the immediate $86B market cap Moderna ( MRNA ) and Merck ( MRK ) added in its wake in August. The Alpha Analyst , meanwhile, issued another Sell recommendation, arguing that the company indicates a fair value of only about $145 per share “due to overextended valuation post-melanoma Phase 3 trial news.” “Current market pricing assumes de-risked oncology pipeline and aggressive outer-year revenue growth, failing to adequately discount execution and commercialization risks,” The Alpha Analyst wrote. However, analyst Thomas Veth added a Strong Buy arguing that if INTerpath-001 data represents “the first real proof of a cancer platform, the upside could be really enormous.” Still, Veth cautioned that MRNA’s current valuation could be very difficult to justify if melanoma success is a one-off incident. On Wall Street, meanwhile, Moderna ( MRNA ) received a rare downgrade in September as Citi cut its rating to Sell from Neutral, noting an “unjustifiable” valuation in the COVID-19 vaccine maker following INTerpath-001 data.