Seeking Alpha 财报前瞻：菲利普莫里斯(PM)10月21日、奥驰亚(MO)10月29日将公布Q3，仅列一致预期无实际业绩

Tobacco giants Philip Morris ( PM ) and Altria ( MO ) are set to report third-quarter results before the market opens on October 21 and October 29, respectively, with analysts expecting improvements in both earnings and revenue. The consensus EPS estimate for PM is $2.32 , representing a 3.6% Y/Y rise, while the consensus revenue estimate stands at $11.38B, jumping 4.9% Y/Y. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 6 downward moves, while revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 7 downward moves, pointing to a bearish inclination among analysts. However, the firm has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time over the last 2 years, offsetting some fears. For the upcoming quarter, Seeking Alpha analyst Dividend and Value Investor said it would be watching several developments, including progress in the company’s combustible segments. While Philip Morris expects cigarette volumes to decline 2% to 3% for the full year, the analyst brushed aside concerns over the decline, instead expecting market share to remain stable. The analyst also noted that Philip Morris’ oral nicotine pouches, ZYN’s competitive position in the U.S. is under pressure—it sees Q3 and Q4 results as critical for assessing whether ZYN’s competitive position is stabilizing and its contribution to PM's premium valuation. The management’s remarks regarding organic net revenue and operating income growth expectations will also be a key area of interest. For Altria, analyst Vishal Jadaun said he would keep a tab on tax refunds received by the company—which it says will drive up the bottom line, instead of Marlboro’s performance. Wall Street expects the Marlboro maker to report an EPS of $1.51 , rising 4.1% Y/Y, while revenue is seen inching up by 1% to $5.31B. The analyst expects cigarette import/export activity to normalize in Q3 and Q4. However, he said he would focus on smokeable segment OCI growth excluding these effects, adding that growth of around 1.5% would support the bearish thesis regardless of headline EPS. “For the no-smoke area, management said they will launch PLUS 12 mg in Q3. They also said they have new flavors in mind for Q4. In Q2, the shipment count fell 4.2% to 49.9 million cans. I would like to see on! sales lift again. I also want the 8.0% adjusted OCI drop to lessen in the oral line,” Jadaun said. Over the last 3 months, Altria’s EPS estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 4 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 6 downward moves. Over the last 2 years, MO has beaten EPS as well as revenue estimates 75% of the time.