Seeking Alpha 前瞻陶氏化学(DOW)周四Q3财报：EPS预期0.64美元、营收+12%，分析师观点多空分歧，无实质新增催化

When Dow ( DOW ) announces its third-quarter earnings results on Thursday, Wall Street expects the company to post EPS of $0.64, while its revenue is expected to increase more than 12% year-over-year to $11.22B for the quarter. The firm beat Wall Street's second-quarter revenue and earnings estimates as sharply higher polyethylene prices lifted results across its businesses. However, the company pointed to softer demand trends, lower volumes, and higher costs heading into the second half of the year. Wall Street analysts are cautious, rating DOW a Hold . RBC Capital Markets rated the stock Sector Perform while reducing its price target to $29 from $32. RBC Capital Markets analyst Arun Viswanathan highlighted that DOW lowered its Q3 guidance midpoint to approximately $1.55B (within a $1.5–$1.6B range), down approximately $150M from its $1.7B guide in Q2. “The primary driver is weaker-than-expected PE pricing, with an approximately $300M headwind from lower PE vs. the original guide (-10 cpp in July), partly offset by stronger II&I from tighter MDI and higher MEG pricing given oil dynamics (+approximately $100M). DOW also noted stronger-than-expected China production across several chains, particularly in acetyls, which has added global supply pressure,” Viswanathan added. On the other hand, Bank of America Securities upgraded Dow ( DOW ) to Neutral from Underperform, citing improving chemical prices, expectations for more persistent energy inflation, and signs that the company's earnings may be stabilizing. Analyst Matthew DeYoe raised his price objective on Dow ( DOW ) to $31 from $29, representing about 3.6% upside from the stock's latest price of $29.93. The upgrade reflects a more favorable outlook for petrochemical producers amid continued geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Shares of DOW have gained more than 29% so far this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500, which has risen nearly 12.7% over the same period. On average, Seeking Alpha analysts and Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating are bullish, rating DOW a Buy. Seeking Alpha analyst Martin Gonzalez rated the stock a HOLD due to a lack of clear value-generating projects and a focus on operational restructuring over expansion. The analyst highlighted that DOW’s near-term strategy centers on cost-cutting initiatives like the Transform to Outperform program, targeting $2B in annual savings by 2027–2028. “Expansion projects such as Path2Zero lack disclosed financial targets, reinforcing the thesis that DOW is prioritizing defensive measures over growth,” Gonzalez concluded. Over the last two years, DOW has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time. Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions , compared with 11 downward revisions, while its revenue estimates have seen three upward revisions compared with eight downward moves.