SpaceX 强劲财报带动高性能云板块情绪，Polymarket 上 CoreWeave 2028 年底前破产隐含概率单日降 8 个百分点至 14%，多家投行维持看多

Market-implied odds of a CoreWeave ( CRWV ) bankruptcy by the end of 2028 tumbled on Wednesday, a day after Elon Musk's SpaceX ( SPCX ) delivered strong third-quarter results and a major confidence boost to the broader high-performance cloud sector. The implied probability of this prediction-market contract plunged eight percentage points to 14% at the time of writing, according to Polymarket. CoreWeave ( CRWV ), a provider of GPU cloud infrastructure that relies heavily on debt financing to expand its data center footprint, has faced persistent scrutiny from bondholders and market skeptics over leverage and refinancing risks, with its stock down over 50% Y/Y. However, as SpaceX ( SPCX ) posted a 161% Y/Y surge in revenue and reported explosive growth in its compute segments—sending its stock up around 8%—traders appeared to reprice catastrophic downside risk for peer infrastructure plays. It will be interesting to see if the bankruptcy odds continue to fade as earnings season starts heating up. Earlier on Wednesday, Piper Sandler reiterated its preferred rating on CoreWeave ( CRWV ), saying concerns about growing financing concerns in the AI infrastructure sector are overblown. Likewise, after last week's AI selloff, Goldman Sachs upgraded the neocloud company and said the contract economics are likely to be stronger than investors expect. Cantor Fitzgerald and Bank of America also remain bullish.