拉姆研究FY27 Q1营收EPS双超纪录、2027 WFE预览超2000亿美元，但供应链压制指引+中国占比将显著回落，夜盘扩大下跌8.6%

Earnings Call Insights: Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 2027 Management view "In the September quarter, Lam again delivered record revenue and profitability, gross margin, operating margin and EPS all reached new highs with operating margin topping 40% for the first time." (President, CEO & Director Timothy Archer) "Our preliminary 2027 WFE outlook is for more than $200 billion of spending with percentage growth led by DRAM, followed by leading-edge foundry/logic and NAND." (President, CEO & Director Archer) "As we move into calendar year 2027, we see clean room space availability and supply chain constraints for certain components continuing to limit chip makers and equipment companies' ability to fully meet end demand." (President, CEO & Director Archer) On NAND and AI storage tiering, management tied a potential mix shift to higher capacity needs: "Converting from TLC to SLC class devices reduces bits per device by roughly 3x" and "for each percentage point mix shift of NAND bits to SLC class devices, approximately 2% more installed wafer capacity will be needed to support the same bit demand." (President, CEO & Director Archer) On advanced patterning, management highlighted tool traction and a raised long-term revenue target: "Aether solutions are already ramping in HBM high-volume manufacturing" and "we now expect cumulative Aether-related revenue to reach approximately $2.5 billion by the end of the decade, roughly $1 billion above our prior expectations." (President, CEO & Director Archer) On services, management raised the cadence of growth expectations into next year: "We are set to exit calendar year 2026 with solid momentum with annual revenue expected to grow more than 30% year-over-year" and "we expect CSBG momentum to continue in calendar year 2027 with revenue growing over 15% year-over-year." (President, CEO & Director Archer) "September quarter revenue was $8.22 billion" and "for the September quarter, diluted earnings per share were a record at $2.20." (Executive VP & CFO Douglas Bettinger) Outlook "We're expecting revenue of $8.6 billion, plus or minus $400 million" and "earnings per share of $2.33, plus or minus $0.15." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) "This revenue guide would have been a bit higher, if not for some near-term supply chain constraints that we are actively managing." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) Versus the prior quarter’s setup, the company moved from discussing 2026 WFE "in the low $150 billion range" (Q4 2026 call) to, in the current call, "for calendar year 2026, we expect WFE in the mid-$150 billion range." (President, CEO & Director Archer) Financial results "September quarter revenue was $8.22 billion, which was up 22% sequentially and up 54% from the same period in 2025." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) "The deferred revenue balance at quarter end was $2.66 billion" and "the Customer Support Business Group generated a fourth consecutive quarter of record revenues at nearly $2.5 billion." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) "China contributed 35% of revenue" and "in the December quarter, we expect China will represent a significantly lower percentage of our total revenue compared with the September quarter." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) Profitability and spending posture: "The September quarter came in at an all-time record of 52.4%" gross margin, "operating margin for the September quarter was another record at 40.2%," and "operating expenses for the ... quarter were $1 billion" as Lam "investing incremental resources to support growing programs like Akara, Halo, panel form factors and Dextro." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) Cash generation and capital return: "The September quarter was also a record for our free cash flow, coming in at $3.24 billion," and "we allocated approximately $1 billion to share repurchases, and we paid $325 million in dividends." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) Q&A Timothy Arcuri, UBS: asked whether supply constraints implied a ~$300M-$400M headwind and whether shipments return in March; Executive VP & CFO Bettinger: "I'm not going to put a specific number on it" and "to the extent that it's something we would have shipped in December because of timing, we will ship that in the March quarter." Timothy Arcuri, UBS: asked about DRAM road maps and market reaction to 3D DRAM vs. 4F squared; President, CEO & Director Archer: "as all device architectures go 3D, etch and deposition intensity rises" and "if really, we're making a leap right from 6F squared to 3D DRAM, then etch and dep intensity is going to rise even faster." Melissa Weathers, Deutsche Bank: asked what Lam is doing to relieve supply bottlenecks and whether co-investments are possible; Executive VP & CFO Bettinger: "if we needed to make some level of investments, we'd be open to that" while adding "a lot of our suppliers are well capitalized." President, CEO & Director Archer added, "this is nothing like" COVID-era shortages. Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan, TD Cowen: asked if December has episodic revenues; Executive VP & CFO Bettinger: "there's nothing unique or one-off" and reiterated guidance would have been "a little bit higher" without constraints. Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan, TD Cowen: asked to quantify China down in December; Executive VP & CFO Bettinger: "I expect it in December will be meaningfully down" and said the decline is "driven by the domestic customers in China." Srinivas Pajjuri, RBC: asked what drives continued outgrowth vs. WFE; President, CEO & Director Archer: "it's driven by the increase in deposition and etch intensity across all devices" and pointed to "advanced packaging" and NAND tiering as key themes. Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein: asked for unconstrained 2027 WFE; Executive VP & CFO Bettinger: "I'm not going to put a number on what the unconstrained demand would be" but said "It would be higher." He also clarified NAND conversions: "you need to buy new equipment also," and on contributions, "Both were meaningful contributors." Sentiment analysis Analysts: slightly negative to pressing around constraints and China concentration, pushing for quantification (e.g., "Is it fair to say this is costing you like $300 million to $400 million" and "can you quantify that?"). Management: slightly positive and controlled, repeatedly declining precise quantification while reaffirming execution (e.g., "I'm not going to put a specific number on it" and "I have every expectation we'll effectively manage this"). Versus last quarter, management provided more explicit long-range markers (e.g., "more than $200 billion" 2027 WFE and Aether to "approximately $2.5 billion") while still resisting “unconstrained” sizing; analyst pressure on quantification remained consistent. Quarter-over-quarter comparison The current call added a preliminary 2027 spending marker: "more than $200 billion" WFE (current) versus the prior call’s stance: "too soon for us to put quantification around what '27 is going to be" (previous). The current call introduced a more specific supply constraint impact on near-term guidance: "This revenue guide would have been a bit higher" absent constraints (current), while the previous call emphasized readiness and expediting across the supply chain without citing near-term constraint effects on guidance. China mix messaging flipped sequentially: the previous call said "China declined, as we expected it would" to 26% (previous), while the current call reported "China contributed 35%" and then guided it "significantly lower" next quarter (current). Risks and concerns Supply chain and capacity: "clean room space availability and supply chain constraints for certain components" were cited as limiting the industry’s ability to meet demand, with Lam stating, "We are actively working with our suppliers to accelerate their capacity expansion plans." (President, CEO & Director Archer) Near-term shipment timing risk embedded in guidance: "to the extent that it's something we would have shipped in December because of timing, we will ship that in the March quarter." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) Geographic mix volatility: "In the December quarter, we expect China will represent a significantly lower percentage" than September, with the decline "driven by the domestic customers in China." (Executive VP & CFO Bettinger) Final takeaway Management described a September quarter with record revenue and profitability, paired with December guidance that it said would have been higher absent near-term supply constraints. Leadership emphasized AI-driven demand across DRAM, foundry/logic, NAND, and advanced packaging, introduced a preliminary view for "more than $200 billion" of 2027 WFE spending, and raised its long-range Aether revenue target to "approximately $2.5 billion" by decade end. Executives also flagged mix volatility—particularly China stepping down from 35% of revenue—and framed supply chain and cleanroom availability as the key near-term limiters, while reiterating confidence in shipment recovery timing into the March quarter. Read the full Earnings Call Transcript