IBM Q3业绩超预期但维持2026全年营收指引，盘前跌约5%，市场担忧Q4显著减速

IBM ( IBM ) shares fell about 5% before the bell Thursday following a Q3 beat , with Wall Street weighing the rebound in its software business versus growth next year. IBM kept its 2026 forecast for revenue growth of 4% to 5% at constant currency and said free cash flow should rise by more than $1B from last year. Keeping the full-year revenue guide after a beat implies a weaker fourth quarter, as per Wall Street analysts. "Despite 3Q revenue growth accelerating to 6% at constant currency, management held its ‘26 revenue outlook at 4-5% and kept the low end as its base case. That base case implies a meaningful 4Q deceleration," Susquehanna analyst James Friedman said. Software revenue grew 9% in constant currency in the third quarter, accelerating from 5% in the previous quarter. Transaction Processing, which includes software for IBM's mainframe systems, grew 10% after customers completed about two-thirds of the large deals that had slipped from the second quarter. Red Hat revenue rose 11%, while the Data segment grew 20%. CEO Arvind Krishna said the quarter included both deferred second-quarter purchases and a normal third-quarter buying cycle. "I would be candid and tell you, I don't expect double-digit performance in TP to keep going, but I would expect to see now more normalized performance, especially going into next year and perhaps a moderation from 3Q going into the fourth quarter," Krishna said. "We believe the key question is whether software can sustain the rebound and near double-digit growth in CY27, which requires broader execution in organic Automation and Data," Morgan Stanley analysts said. Jefferies raised its price target by $10 to $280, while Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $240 from $238, maintaining Equal-weight rating. Susquehanna bumped its price target to $256 from $235 and said "We remain Neutral rated primarily due to IBM’s slower growth relative to the S&P."