AI 投入回报焦虑引发科技股抛售与国债避险轮动，Meta 上调 2026 资本开支并披露无投票权 C 类股预案、IBM 预警大客户抵触 AI 预算

Renewed anxiety over the sustainability, mounting costs and commercial payoffs of AI ( AIQ ) ( AIEQ ) pushed investors out of equities, particularly tech stocks ( QQQ ), and into the safety of government debt on Thursday. The defensive rotation triggered broad buying across U.S. Treasuries, driving yields lower across virtually every maturity. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ( US10Y ) tumbled 10 basis points to 5.03% at press time, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield ( US2Y ) dropped nine bps to 4.72%. Shorter- and longer-dated paper saw similar declines, with 5-year notes ( US5Y ) sliding 11 bps to 4.85% and the 30-year bond ( US30Y ) easing seven bps to 5.34%. The flight to bonds comes amid growing signs that the economics of the AI trade are facing strain from both corporate end-users and the hyperscalers ( MSFT ) ( META ) ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) ( AMZN ) ( ORCL ) building the infrastructure. Shares of enterprise software bellwether IBM ( IBM ) retreated 4% despite beating third-quarter earnings estimates, weighed down by subsequent commentary from Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna regarding customer appetite. On an earnings call, Krishna disclosed that large corporations are starting to push back against aggressive AI budgets. "Larger enterprises are becoming a lot more cognizant and a lot more aware of what is the true ROI of all of their AI spend," Krishna warned, noting that clients fear spending will spin "completely out of control with no real return." At the other end of the AI supply chain, Meta Platforms ( META ) underscored the relentless capital demands required to keep pace in the sector, narrowing its 2026 capital expenditure guidance upward to $135B to $145B, from a prior range of $130B to $145B. The heightened cash requirements were further highlighted in Meta's ( META ) quarterly filing, in which a special committee of the board detailed an urgent push to create non-voting Class C common stock for future equity offerings as early as late 2026. The filing revealed that Meta is racing against rivals such as Alphabet ( GOOG ), OpenAI ( OPENAI ), Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) and SpaceX ( SPCX ), which are actively absorbing liquidity in an "increasingly challenging environment for raising capital." META fell 6% and credit risk climbed to an all-time high after increased capex plans stoked worries that tech giants will lean heavily on debt to finance their AI buildout. "The Special Committee considered that, while the Company presently has sufficient capital resources for its current needs, in order to finance its funding needs going forward it would be prudent for the Company to do so before even more companies have absorbed available capital in the market, " the 10-Q filing said. According to the disclosure, raising debt of that magnitude risked impairing Meta’s ( META ) credit ratings, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg refused to back any equity financing that would dilute his voting control.