Wedbush 财报前瞻称 AXT 三季度 6600 万美元指引仅为“下限”，磷化铟涨价与供应紧缺支撑超预期，但属卖方观点综合、无公司新增事实

AXT ( AXTI ) reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29, and Wedbush Securities believes the magnitude of the company surpassing Wall Street's estimates is contingent on several factors. “As a reminder, AXTI's ~$66M 3Q26 outlook counts only revenue it can ship under export permits already granted (or product that needs none), and management again described it as carrying a 'high degree of confidence,'” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note to clients. “With the guide framed as a floor, we see several intra-quarter data points as supportive, but also believe the size of any beat is now set by capacity and pricing rather than permits or demand.” Bryson has an Outperform rating and a $93 price target on AXT. Delving deeper, Bryson added that intra-quarter data points were still constructive, as Landmark, one of AXT's major customers, reported September sales of NT$540M, up 4% month-over-month and 190% year-over-year. Total third-quarter revenue grew 28% sequentially and 183% year-over-year, Landmark added, citing higher data-center product shipments. Other positives include other players in the indium phosphide space reporting healthy revenue growth, with VPEX and LuxNet reporting increases of 39% and 26% quarter-over-quarter, respectively. Additionally, indium phosphide pricing is still rising, according to Taiwan's Economic Daily News. “We would expect AXTI's contract pricing to lag these market prices, but the direction supports further [gross margin] expansion,” Bryson added. Lastly, customers have said supply is still short, with Lumentum ( LITE ) stating it did a “massive” deal with a Japanese supplier, a separate deal with AXT, and “still, that might not be enough.”