GlobeNewswire PharmaceuticalsDoubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 23:45:00·⟳ 抓取 23:45:51·⚡ 决策 10-22 23:47:35 +1m44s·5.3 天前
Guerbet公布2026年前三季收入5.738亿欧元并重申全年目标,中国市场持续拖累
这是一则“符合预期+重申目标”与“中国收缩、Q3走弱、自由现金流大幅为负、再融资未落地”并存的混合财报,缺少明确正惊喜;直接标的在巴黎上市,当前信号档案未提供可核验行情,且没有高置信度做多或强空催化。
📄 原文GlobeNewswire Pharmaceuticals↗ 原文
Guerbet : Revenue at 30 September 2026.
Revenue at 30 September 2026 Business in line with Group expectations Revenue at 30 September 2026 of €573.8m, down 1.3…
不做 Guerbet SA(GBT.FR)
常规三季度收入披露整体符合预期并重申目标,但中国区下滑、Q3降幅扩大、全年大幅负自由现金流及再融资不确定性构成对冲;缺少明确预期差和可执行价格依据,风险回报不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Guerbet前三季剔除中国后小幅增长、全年目标获确认,但Q3整体下降3.6%,亚洲/中国继续双位数下滑,且全年自由现金流预计为-5000万至-7000万欧元、再融资仍在谈判。多空因素相互抵消,风险回报不足,不做交易。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-22 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 公告没有给出新的正向盈利惊喜,核心表述是业务符合既有预期并确认全年目标。
- 中国医疗市场重构造成的收入压力仍在持续,再融资条款尚未最终确定,财报净方向偏混合。
主要风险
- 若市场只交易“剔除中国后增长”和目标确认,短线可能反弹,做空缺乏强催化。
- 若再融资条件恶化或Raleigh工厂恢复晚于年底,当前“符合预期”判断可能转为明确利空。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-22 · 影响 weakens
同一公告披露全年自由现金流预计为-5000万至-7000万欧元、继续再融资谈判、Raleigh恢复仍待年底,中国市场处于深度重构,削弱做多edge。
检索:Guerbet refinancing leverage waiver free cash flow Raleigh remediation China VBP 2026 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-22 · 影响 weakens
公告称业务符合集团预期、所有财务目标获确认,剔除中国前三季增长1%,介入放射增长6.6%,并非新的盈利下修或重大负面事件。
检索:Guerbet Q3 2026 revenue in line expectations targets confirmed excluding China growth 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足与基本面混合共同支持AVOID,而非用泛化医药财报经验强行开仓。
方向:未形成可交易方向:同类常规季度收入公告的市场反应高度依赖是否超预期、全年指引是否调整及再融资风险,不适合仅凭本条混合新闻推断。
涨幅量级:缺少经首发锚点核验且与Guerbet或欧洲中小型医疗影像公司同机制、同市场相位对齐的先例,不能据此设定止盈止损。
形态:未发现可验证的反复见光死模式;本条本身也未显示股价反应。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 10,542 字
Revenue at 30 September 2026
Business in line with Group expectations
Revenue at 30 September 2026 of €573.8m, down 1.3% at CER
1
and like-for-like
2
; excluding China, business grew by 1%, with a positive contribution from the three regions (EMEA, Americas and Asia)
In the third quarter, revenue fell by 3.6% at CER and like-for-like, and was stable excluding China
All financial targets confirmed for 2026
Villepinte, 22 October 2026, 5.45 p.m.:
Guerbet (FR0000032526 GBT), a global specialist in contrast agents and solutions for medical imaging, is publishing its revenue for the first nine months of 2026.
At 30 September 2026, Group revenue totalled €573.8 million, down 2.2% on a reported basis compared with the first nine months of 2025. At constant exchange rates (CER)
1
, the decline was 1.3% over the period, with the negative exchange rate effect of €4.8 million confined to the first six months of the year and largely linked to the depreciation of the Japanese yen. As there was a very small scope effect, the change at CER and like-for-like² was also -1.3%. Excluding China, where the healthcare product market is undergoing a major restructuring, Guerbet's revenue would have grown over the period (+1%). In the third quarter alone, revenue at CER and like-for-like was down 3.6%, but was stable excluding China.
Geographical breakdown of consolidated revenue (IFRS)
In € millions
Q3
9 months
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
Sales in EMEA
86.2
86.0
-0.2%
-0.4%
255.8
259.0
+1.3%
+1.0%
Sales in the Americas
58.8
61.6
+4.9%
+0.2%
176.5
178.5
+1.1%
+0.9%
Sales in Asia
53.7
46.9
-12.7%
-13.0%
152.4
134.7
-11.6%
-7.9%
Total like-for-like
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.6%
584.7
572.2
-2.1%
-1.3%
Out-of-scope activities*
0.0
0.0
-
-
1.8
1.6
-
-
Total
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.7%
586.5
573.8
-2.2%
-1.3%
*
sales of components and finished products related to the urology business (sold in July 2024)
In
EMEA
, revenue came to €259.0 million at 30 September 2026, up 1.0% at CER and like-for-like, impacted by a continuous recovery in activity in France and a decrease in indirect sales (distributors). Revenue in the third quarter was virtually stable (-0.4%) despite a difficult comparison base (+10.2% in the third quarter of 2025).
In the
Americas
, sales reached €178.5 million at end-September, up 0.9% at CER and like-for-like. After a sharp recovery in the second quarter (+4.8%), the third quarter was stable (+0.2%) amid a continued normalisation at the Raleigh industrial site, where a return to normative batch release levels is still expected at the end of the financial year.
In
Asia
, revenue amounted to €134.7 million for the first nine months, down 7.9% at CER and like-for-like, of which -13.0% in the third quarter alone. This decline is attributable to the ongoing contraction in sales in China, where the policy to sharply reduce healthcare spending is leading to a profound recomposition of the market, linked to a gradual elimination of intermediaries (CSO business model) and a more widespread use of volume-based tenders (VBP business model).
Breakdown of consolidated revenue by activity (IFRS)
In € millions
Q3
9 months
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
Diagnostic Imaging
174.0
166.9
-4.0%
-5.7%
508.0
492.1
-3.1%
-2.5%
MRI
65.0
62.0
-4.7%
-5.8%
192.5
185.8
-3.5%
-2.7%
X-ray
108.9
105.0
-3.6%
-5.6%
315.4
306.3
-2.9%
-2.4%
Interventional Radiology
24.8
27.7
+11.7%
+10.7%
76.7
80.0
+4.4%
+6.6%
Total like-for-like
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.6%
584.7
572.2
-2.1%
-1.3%
Out-of-scope activities*
0.0
0.0
-
-
1.8
1.6
-
-
Total
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.7%
586.5
573.8
-2.2%
-1.3%
*
sales of components and finished products related to the urology business (sold in July 2024)
By business, revenue in
Diagnostic Imaging
came to €492.1 million in the first nine months, down 2.5% at CER and like-for-like, including a 5.7% decline in the third quarter alone.
Sales of the
IRM
division amounted to €185.8 million, down 2.7% at CER and like-for-like. The decline in the third quarter (-5.8%) was due entirely to the contraction in sales to third parties, linked to the planned slowdown in subcontracting activities at Gadopiclenol, which will take place, as expected, in two stages: end-2026 for Fill & Finish and end-2028 at the earliest for the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API). Meanwhile, sales of Elucirem™ remained very dynamic over the period.
Revenue in the
X-ray
division came to €306.3 million, down 2.4% at CER and like-for-like (-5.6% in the third quarter). The favourable price effect over the period was not enough to offset the fall in volumes of Optiray
®
and Xenetix
®
, largely due to the contraction of sales in China.
Revenue in
Interventional Radiology
came to €80.0 million in the first nine months, up 6.6% at CER and on a like-for-like basis. Growth accelerated in the third quarter (+10.7%), still driven by momentum in sales of Lipiodol
®
in the vascular embolization market.
2026: full-year financial targets confirmed
At the end of the third quarter, in line with the Group’s expectations, Guerbet reiterated all of its financial targets. For 2026, the Group’s targets are:
Revenue
stable or showing a slight decrease at CER and on a like-for-like basis.
Restated EBITDA margin rate
3
of around 8%, including around €35 million related to the costs of the remediation plan at the Raleigh site.
Strongly negative
free cash flow
of between -€50 million and -€70 million, due to the expected decrease in restated EBITDA, the increase in the CAPEX plan and non-recurring restructuring costs linked to the Group’s transformation plan, including in particular the redundancy plan in France.
Continuation of discussions with financial partners
Guerbet is continuing its discussions with its financial partners on its refinancing, as mentioned in its recent communications.
As a reminder, the Group has secured waivers from its financial partners relating to the leverage ratio tested at 30 June 2026, 31 December 2026 and 30 June 2027.
Next event:
2026 annual sales
February 4, 2027 after market close
About Guerbet
At Guerbet, we build lasting relationships so that we enable people to live better. That is our purpose. We are a global leader in medical imaging, offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products, medical devices, and digital and AI solutions for diagnostic and interventional imaging. As pioneers in contrast products for 100 years, with 2,746 employees worldwide, we continuously innovate and devote 10% of our revenue to Research and Development in four centers in France and the United States. Guerbet (GBT) is listed in Compartment B of Euronext Paris and generated revenue of €786 million in 2025. For more information, please visit www.guerbet.com.
Forward-looking statements
Certain information contained in this press release is not historical data but constitutes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on estimates, forecasts and assumptions including, without limitation, assumptions regarding the Group’s current and future strategy and the economic environment in which the Group
operates. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may result in a significant difference between the Group’s actual performance and results and those presented explicitly or implicitly in these forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are only valid as of the date of this press release and the Group expressly disclaims any obligation or commitment to issue an update or revision of the forward-looking statements contained in this press release to reflect changes in the assumptions, events, conditions or circumstances on which such forward-looking statements are based. Forward-looking statements contained in this press release are for illustrative purposes only. Forward-looking statements and information are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of the Group.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties inherent in research and development, future clinical data and analyses, including post-marketing analyses, decisions by regulatory authorities, such as the Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency, whether or not to approve, and when, the application for a drug, process or biological product for one of these candidate products, as well as their labeling decisions and other factors that may affect the availability or commercial potential of these candidate products. A detailed description of the risks and uncertainties related to the Group’s activities can be found in chapter 4.8 “Risk factors” of the Group’s Universal Registration Document registered by the AMF under number D.25-0220 on April 3, 2025, available on the Group’s website (
www.guerbet.com
).
Glossary
EBITDA
: EBITDA is defined as operating income plus net depreciation, amortization, impairment and provisions for risks.
Free cash flow (FCF)
: Free cash flow is defined as the change in net debt from one year to the next.
Net financial debt
: Net financial debt is defined as the sum of current and non-current borrowings less cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities.
Like-for-like basis
: Like-for-like basis refers to the scope excluding the urology and Accurate businesses, sold in July 2024 and January 2025 respectively.
At constant exchange rates
: At constant exchange rates means the impact of exchange rates is eliminated by recalculating sales for the period based on the exchange rates used for the previous year.
1 Constant exchange rates: the exchange rate impact was eliminated by recalculating sales for the period on the basis of the exchange rates used for the previous financial year.
2
Excluding sales in 2026 of components and finished products related to the urology business (sold in July 2024) and sales in 2025 of microcatheters.
3
Restated EBITDA excludes non-recurring expenses related to restructuring
Contacts:
Guerbet
Jérôme Estampes, Chief Financial Officer +33 (0)1 45915000 /
jerome.estampes@guerbet.com
Christine Allard, SVP Public Affairs and Corporate Communications +33 6 30115782 /
christine.allard@guerbet.com
Seitosei.Actifin
Marianne Py, Financial Communication +33 6 85527693
/ marianne.py@seitosei-actifin.com
Jennifer Jullia, Press +33 6 02084549 / jennifer.jullia@seitosei-actifin.com
Attachment
CP GBT CA T3 EN
Business in line with Group expectations
Revenue at 30 September 2026 of €573.8m, down 1.3% at CER
1
and like-for-like
2
; excluding China, business grew by 1%, with a positive contribution from the three regions (EMEA, Americas and Asia)
In the third quarter, revenue fell by 3.6% at CER and like-for-like, and was stable excluding China
All financial targets confirmed for 2026
Villepinte, 22 October 2026, 5.45 p.m.:
Guerbet (FR0000032526 GBT), a global specialist in contrast agents and solutions for medical imaging, is publishing its revenue for the first nine months of 2026.
At 30 September 2026, Group revenue totalled €573.8 million, down 2.2% on a reported basis compared with the first nine months of 2025. At constant exchange rates (CER)
1
, the decline was 1.3% over the period, with the negative exchange rate effect of €4.8 million confined to the first six months of the year and largely linked to the depreciation of the Japanese yen. As there was a very small scope effect, the change at CER and like-for-like² was also -1.3%. Excluding China, where the healthcare product market is undergoing a major restructuring, Guerbet's revenue would have grown over the period (+1%). In the third quarter alone, revenue at CER and like-for-like was down 3.6%, but was stable excluding China.
Geographical breakdown of consolidated revenue (IFRS)
In € millions
Q3
9 months
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
Sales in EMEA
86.2
86.0
-0.2%
-0.4%
255.8
259.0
+1.3%
+1.0%
Sales in the Americas
58.8
61.6
+4.9%
+0.2%
176.5
178.5
+1.1%
+0.9%
Sales in Asia
53.7
46.9
-12.7%
-13.0%
152.4
134.7
-11.6%
-7.9%
Total like-for-like
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.6%
584.7
572.2
-2.1%
-1.3%
Out-of-scope activities*
0.0
0.0
-
-
1.8
1.6
-
-
Total
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.7%
586.5
573.8
-2.2%
-1.3%
*
sales of components and finished products related to the urology business (sold in July 2024)
In
EMEA
, revenue came to €259.0 million at 30 September 2026, up 1.0% at CER and like-for-like, impacted by a continuous recovery in activity in France and a decrease in indirect sales (distributors). Revenue in the third quarter was virtually stable (-0.4%) despite a difficult comparison base (+10.2% in the third quarter of 2025).
In the
Americas
, sales reached €178.5 million at end-September, up 0.9% at CER and like-for-like. After a sharp recovery in the second quarter (+4.8%), the third quarter was stable (+0.2%) amid a continued normalisation at the Raleigh industrial site, where a return to normative batch release levels is still expected at the end of the financial year.
In
Asia
, revenue amounted to €134.7 million for the first nine months, down 7.9% at CER and like-for-like, of which -13.0% in the third quarter alone. This decline is attributable to the ongoing contraction in sales in China, where the policy to sharply reduce healthcare spending is leading to a profound recomposition of the market, linked to a gradual elimination of intermediaries (CSO business model) and a more widespread use of volume-based tenders (VBP business model).
Breakdown of consolidated revenue by activity (IFRS)
In € millions
Q3
9 months
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
2025
2026
% change
% chg. at CER
Diagnostic Imaging
174.0
166.9
-4.0%
-5.7%
508.0
492.1
-3.1%
-2.5%
MRI
65.0
62.0
-4.7%
-5.8%
192.5
185.8
-3.5%
-2.7%
X-ray
108.9
105.0
-3.6%
-5.6%
315.4
306.3
-2.9%
-2.4%
Interventional Radiology
24.8
27.7
+11.7%
+10.7%
76.7
80.0
+4.4%
+6.6%
Total like-for-like
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.6%
584.7
572.2
-2.1%
-1.3%
Out-of-scope activities*
0.0
0.0
-
-
1.8
1.6
-
-
Total
198.7
194.6
-2.1%
-3.7%
586.5
573.8
-2.2%
-1.3%
*
sales of components and finished products related to the urology business (sold in July 2024)
By business, revenue in
Diagnostic Imaging
came to €492.1 million in the first nine months, down 2.5% at CER and like-for-like, including a 5.7% decline in the third quarter alone.
Sales of the
IRM
division amounted to €185.8 million, down 2.7% at CER and like-for-like. The decline in the third quarter (-5.8%) was due entirely to the contraction in sales to third parties, linked to the planned slowdown in subcontracting activities at Gadopiclenol, which will take place, as expected, in two stages: end-2026 for Fill & Finish and end-2028 at the earliest for the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API). Meanwhile, sales of Elucirem™ remained very dynamic over the period.
Revenue in the
X-ray
division came to €306.3 million, down 2.4% at CER and like-for-like (-5.6% in the third quarter). The favourable price effect over the period was not enough to offset the fall in volumes of Optiray
®
and Xenetix
®
, largely due to the contraction of sales in China.
Revenue in
Interventional Radiology
came to €80.0 million in the first nine months, up 6.6% at CER and on a like-for-like basis. Growth accelerated in the third quarter (+10.7%), still driven by momentum in sales of Lipiodol
®
in the vascular embolization market.
2026: full-year financial targets confirmed
At the end of the third quarter, in line with the Group’s expectations, Guerbet reiterated all of its financial targets. For 2026, the Group’s targets are:
Revenue
stable or showing a slight decrease at CER and on a like-for-like basis.
Restated EBITDA margin rate
3
of around 8%, including around €35 million related to the costs of the remediation plan at the Raleigh site.
Strongly negative
free cash flow
of between -€50 million and -€70 million, due to the expected decrease in restated EBITDA, the increase in the CAPEX plan and non-recurring restructuring costs linked to the Group’s transformation plan, including in particular the redundancy plan in France.
Continuation of discussions with financial partners
Guerbet is continuing its discussions with its financial partners on its refinancing, as mentioned in its recent communications.
As a reminder, the Group has secured waivers from its financial partners relating to the leverage ratio tested at 30 June 2026, 31 December 2026 and 30 June 2027.
Next event:
2026 annual sales
February 4, 2027 after market close
About Guerbet
At Guerbet, we build lasting relationships so that we enable people to live better. That is our purpose. We are a global leader in medical imaging, offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products, medical devices, and digital and AI solutions for diagnostic and interventional imaging. As pioneers in contrast products for 100 years, with 2,746 employees worldwide, we continuously innovate and devote 10% of our revenue to Research and Development in four centers in France and the United States. Guerbet (GBT) is listed in Compartment B of Euronext Paris and generated revenue of €786 million in 2025. For more information, please visit www.guerbet.com.
Forward-looking statements
Certain information contained in this press release is not historical data but constitutes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on estimates, forecasts and assumptions including, without limitation, assumptions regarding the Group’s current and future strategy and the economic environment in which the Group
operates. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may result in a significant difference between the Group’s actual performance and results and those presented explicitly or implicitly in these forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are only valid as of the date of this press release and the Group expressly disclaims any obligation or commitment to issue an update or revision of the forward-looking statements contained in this press release to reflect changes in the assumptions, events, conditions or circumstances on which such forward-looking statements are based. Forward-looking statements contained in this press release are for illustrative purposes only. Forward-looking statements and information are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of the Group.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties inherent in research and development, future clinical data and analyses, including post-marketing analyses, decisions by regulatory authorities, such as the Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency, whether or not to approve, and when, the application for a drug, process or biological product for one of these candidate products, as well as their labeling decisions and other factors that may affect the availability or commercial potential of these candidate products. A detailed description of the risks and uncertainties related to the Group’s activities can be found in chapter 4.8 “Risk factors” of the Group’s Universal Registration Document registered by the AMF under number D.25-0220 on April 3, 2025, available on the Group’s website (
www.guerbet.com
).
Glossary
EBITDA
: EBITDA is defined as operating income plus net depreciation, amortization, impairment and provisions for risks.
Free cash flow (FCF)
: Free cash flow is defined as the change in net debt from one year to the next.
Net financial debt
: Net financial debt is defined as the sum of current and non-current borrowings less cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities.
Like-for-like basis
: Like-for-like basis refers to the scope excluding the urology and Accurate businesses, sold in July 2024 and January 2025 respectively.
At constant exchange rates
: At constant exchange rates means the impact of exchange rates is eliminated by recalculating sales for the period based on the exchange rates used for the previous year.
1 Constant exchange rates: the exchange rate impact was eliminated by recalculating sales for the period on the basis of the exchange rates used for the previous financial year.
2
Excluding sales in 2026 of components and finished products related to the urology business (sold in July 2024) and sales in 2025 of microcatheters.
3
Restated EBITDA excludes non-recurring expenses related to restructuring
Contacts:
Guerbet
Jérôme Estampes, Chief Financial Officer +33 (0)1 45915000 /
jerome.estampes@guerbet.com
Christine Allard, SVP Public Affairs and Corporate Communications +33 6 30115782 /
christine.allard@guerbet.com
Seitosei.Actifin
Marianne Py, Financial Communication +33 6 85527693
/ marianne.py@seitosei-actifin.com
Jennifer Jullia, Press +33 6 02084549 / jennifer.jullia@seitosei-actifin.com
Attachment
CP GBT CA T3 EN
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d391b81f01· 2026-10-22 23:47 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包658c0c1e2ba5当前