The Elec EnglishDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 11:37:44(首尔 12:37)时区推断·⟳ 抓取 11:44:13·⚡ 决策 10-19 11:46:28 +2m15s·8.3 天前
Sensor Tower数据复盘：Netmarble《SOL: Enchant》累计收入约1200亿韩元，Com2uS《Zeus》首30日470亿韩元，NCSoft《Lineage M》仍居韩国MMORPG首位
这是一篇基于Sensor Tower截至9月数据的行业复盘，涉及流水多为上线后累计或首30日表现，NCSoft三季度数字还来自5月券商预测；没有公司新披露、盈利指引调整或明确预期差，短线风险收益不足。
📄 原文The Elec English↗ 原文
Netmarble’s SOL: Enchant Hits 120 Billion Won, Com2uS’ Zeus 47 Billion
Netmarble’s SOL: Enchant is estimated to have generated 120 billion won in South Korean mobile game revenue since its l…
不做 Netmarble（251270.KQ）
约1200亿韩元是《SOL: Enchant》6月中旬上线至9月的累计第三方流水估算，非新增公告或指引；缺少分成后利润、买量成本与预期差，风险收益不足。
不做 Com2uS（078340.KQ）
《Zeus》首30日470亿韩元流水属于既有新品表现复盘，未提供官方收入确认、利润率或上调指引，不能据此开新多。
不做 NCSoft（036570.KS）
《Lineage M》维持第一主要验证老游戏韧性，三季度1020亿韩元为5月券商预测而非新增事实；竞品强势也使方向并非单纯利好。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
三款韩国手游的流水排名确认了新品表现和老牌MMORPG韧性，但数据截至9月且已随运营期逐步消化；文章没有新增公司指引或利润弹性，故不做多空交易。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-16 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
主要风险
- 第三方Sensor Tower流水为估算口径，不等同于公司确认收入或利润，且未扣除营销、渠道分成和税率影响。
- Netmarble与Com2uS新品的强势可能继续，但报道缺少当前持仓预期和最新股价反应，无法确认预期差。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
信号原文未包含公司上调指引、利润超预期或10月流水加速；仅凭累计流水估算不能确认市场预期差。
检索:Netmarble Com2uS NCSoft SOL Enchant Zeus Lineage M guidance revenue estimate October 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-16 · 影响 weakens
数据窗口截至9月或首30日，已在产品上线后较长时间内形成，并非突发畅销榜登顶或新订单；继续追多缺少新鲜边际。
检索:SOL Enchant Zeus God of Arrogance South Korea revenue Sensor Tower ranking September 2026 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:因缺少新增事实和可执行edge，先例检索不改变AVOID结论。
方向:无可用于交易方向的高相似、同市场、同相位先例；本条也不是新披露的业绩或指引事件。
涨幅量级:未用外部先例校准涨跌幅，因为累计流水复盘缺少明确事件锚和预期差。
形态:媒体在游戏上线后引用第三方流水榜通常更偏基本面验证，能否上涨取决于是否超预期及公司指引，本文未提供这些条件。
工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 11 ms
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原文全文
展开原文 · 2,293 字
Netmarble’s SOL: Enchant is estimated to have generated 120 billion won in South Korean mobile game revenue since its launch, while Com2uS’ Zeus: God of Arrogance earned 47 billion won in its first 30 days. Despite the success of new releases, NC’s Lineage M is expected to remain the top-grossing mobile MMORPG in South Korea this year.
According to mobile market research firm Sensor Tower on Oct. 16, SOL: Enchant ranked second in cumulative revenue among mobile massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) in South Korea through September. It ranked sixth among all mobile games. Released on June 18, the game recorded the highest cumulative revenue among new mobile games launched in South Korea this year.
SOL: Enchant is an MMORPG developed by Alt9 and published by Netmarble. It introduced a “Divine Authority System” that allows players to participate in server operations and content unlocking, along with a feature that enables characters to progress even when players are offline.
Com2uS’ Zeus: God of Arrogance posted strong initial sales. Developed by AButton and published by Com2uS, the game features a world based on Greek mythology, large-scale battles and automated character progression.
Existing hit games also maintained strong performance. NC’s Lineage M retained its position as South Korea’s highest-grossing mobile MMORPG by cumulative revenue this year despite competition from major new releases. Nine years after its 2017 launch, the game continues to generate the most revenue in the country’s MMORPG market.
NC reported Lineage M revenue of 112.8 billion won in the first quarter and 117.3 billion won in the second, bringing first-half revenue to 230.1 billion won. Including Hanwha Investment & Securities’ May forecast of 102 billion won for the third quarter, cumulative revenue through September would reach 332.1 billion won.
The Sensor Tower figures are also significant because they provide insight into revenue from individual games that publishers do not disclose. NC is the only company among the three to report revenue for major titles, including Lineage M, in its earnings releases. Netmarble and Com2uS, by contrast, discuss the earnings contributions of major games without disclosing specific revenue figures for individual titles.
According to mobile market research firm Sensor Tower on Oct. 16, SOL: Enchant ranked second in cumulative revenue among mobile massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) in South Korea through September. It ranked sixth among all mobile games. Released on June 18, the game recorded the highest cumulative revenue among new mobile games launched in South Korea this year.
SOL: Enchant is an MMORPG developed by Alt9 and published by Netmarble. It introduced a “Divine Authority System” that allows players to participate in server operations and content unlocking, along with a feature that enables characters to progress even when players are offline.
Com2uS’ Zeus: God of Arrogance posted strong initial sales. Developed by AButton and published by Com2uS, the game features a world based on Greek mythology, large-scale battles and automated character progression.
Existing hit games also maintained strong performance. NC’s Lineage M retained its position as South Korea’s highest-grossing mobile MMORPG by cumulative revenue this year despite competition from major new releases. Nine years after its 2017 launch, the game continues to generate the most revenue in the country’s MMORPG market.
NC reported Lineage M revenue of 112.8 billion won in the first quarter and 117.3 billion won in the second, bringing first-half revenue to 230.1 billion won. Including Hanwha Investment & Securities’ May forecast of 102 billion won for the third quarter, cumulative revenue through September would reach 332.1 billion won.
The Sensor Tower figures are also significant because they provide insight into revenue from individual games that publishers do not disclose. NC is the only company among the three to report revenue for major titles, including Lineage M, in its earnings releases. Netmarble and Com2uS, by contrast, discuss the earnings contributions of major games without disclosing specific revenue figures for individual titles.
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