碳酸锂跌破10万元/吨心理关口，机构转向2027-28过剩预期，但核心暴跌与研报下调已于10月12-15日充分传播

Lithium carbonate prices have fallen below 100,000 yuan (about 19 million won) per metric ton, a level widely regarded as a psychological support threshold. Prices have halved in five months after exceeding 200,000 yuan in May. With prices continuing to decline even during the traditional peak battery production season, major Chinese investment banks and brokerages are warning of a potential supply glut next year and cutting their lithium price forecasts.
An analysis by THE ELEC on Oct. 16 of lithium market forecasts from CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, China International Capital Corp. (CICC) and Goldman Sachs, along with trading activity on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, showed that expectations of increased supply next year are driving prices lower despite relatively firm battery production and raw material demand. The decline reflects anticipated oversupply rather than an existing surplus.
The benchmark January 2027 lithium carbonate futures contract (LC2701) on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange plunged 11.79% on Oct. 12 to close at 104,740 yuan per ton. The contract fell below 100,000 yuan to 99,820 yuan during trading on Oct. 13 and reached a low of 96,860 yuan on Oct. 14, its lowest level since December last year.
CITIC Securities, China's largest state-owned comprehensive investment bank, expects global lithium supply to exceed demand by 38,000 tons next year. It also lowered its fourth-quarter lithium carbonate price forecast to a range of 100,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton. As recently as May, CITIC had projected that prices could reach 250,000 yuan within two to three months, citing supply shortages and growing battery demand. Market sentiment has shifted sharply in five months.
Goldman Sachs also expects lithium supply to expand. It forecasts a global lithium supply deficit of 404,000 tons this year, shifting to a surplus of 444,000 tons in 2028. The bank expects average Chinese lithium carbonate spot prices to fall to around 100,000 yuan per ton in 2027 and 84,000 yuan in 2028.
Expectations of oversupply are driven by expanding mine production in China, Australia and Africa. CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, restarted its environmental impact assessment review process on Oct. 8. The mine had suspended operations over environmental issues, but the resumption of permitting procedures has increased the likelihood of production restarting next year. Major Australian lithium mines, including Bald Hill and Finniss, have also resumed production.
Zimbabwe's government is requiring local lithium producers to meet mineral processing requirements by January 2027. Market participants expect concerns over potential supply disruptions from the measures to ease, allowing more lithium ore to flow into China. Goldman Sachs forecasts global lithium supply will increase 32% next year.
Slowing electric vehicle demand and uncertainty in the energy storage system (ESS) market have also contributed to falling lithium prices, according to market analyses. While ESS has emerged as a new source of battery demand amid slower EV sales growth, the conversion of orders into actual installations has fallen short of expectations.
According to the China Energy Storage Alliance (CNESA), newly installed ESS capacity in China totaled 58.6 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in the first half of this year, down 16% from a year earlier. Even when battery manufacturers secure large ESS supply contracts, delays in investment decisions and facility construction by power developers could leave actual raw material demand below expectations.
Changes to lithium inventory statistics have added to downward price pressure. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), a Chinese commodities research firm, expanded its lithium carbonate inventory survey in September to include traders and battery cell manufacturers. The broader coverage pushed estimated inventories from around 70,000 tons to 169,300 tons. The increase reflected previously uncounted inventories rather than a sudden buildup in physical stocks. The revision raised doubts about earlier forecasts of lithium shortages, prompting investors who had bought futures contracts in anticipation of higher prices to unwind their positions and accelerating the decline.
Bearish positions dominate the lithium carbonate futures market. On Oct. 14, the 20 largest position holders in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2701 contract held 343,486 short contracts, exceeding their 313,482 long contracts by about 30,000. Short positions represent bets on falling prices. The gap between short and long positions widened by 2,164 contracts from the previous session, indicating that investors expecting further declines were adding positions more aggressively than those betting on a recovery. Shanghai Zhongqi Futures, a Chinese futures brokerage, also expects lithium carbonate prices to remain weak.
The sharp decline in lithium prices has weighed on shares of related companies. Tianqi Lithium, a major Chinese lithium producer, fell for four consecutive trading sessions through Oct. 15, losing a cumulative 11.05%. Shares of Ganfeng Lithium were down 36.2% from the start of the year and about 56% from their annual peak on May 6.
The continued share-price declines prompted some investors to demand production cuts from lithium producers. During an investor question-and-answer session on Oct. 16, Tianqi Lithium faced shareholder calls to consider suspending or reducing production. The investor also urged the company to participate in China's "anti-involution" policy aimed at curbing excessive competition.
Tianqi did not directly address whether it would cut output, saying it adjusts production plans according to market demand, customer orders and inventory levels. The company said its vertically integrated production structure, including Australia's Greenbushes mine, helps maintain low costs. It did not provide a specific response on whether falling lithium prices could push it into losses.
Ganfeng Lithium also faced investor calls for production cuts but said it could flexibly adjust spot sales of lithium salt products according to market conditions rather than specifying whether it would change output. The company said futures prices are not directly applied to its lithium salt spot sales and that prices under long-term supply contracts fluctuate less sharply than futures prices. Responding to investor questions about SMM's inventory statistics, Ganfeng said it does not officially provide external data agencies with detailed daily inventory, production and sales figures.
Falling lithium prices are also affecting battery materials and cell prices. According to global market research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode material prices in China fell 7.8% from the previous quarter to 56,000 yuan per ton in the third quarter. Lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM622) cathode material prices declined 16% and 11.2%, respectively. The global lithium-ion battery price index was 6.7% lower at the end of September than at the end of June.
Actual battery production and lithium inventories, however, are showing signals that contrast with oversupply forecasts. SMM data showed China's lithium carbonate inventories stood at 139,517 tons as of Oct. 8, down 9,260 tons from before the holiday period. Chinese battery cell manufacturers' production plans for October were also about 6% higher than the previous month. LFP cathode material output is expected to increase to 625,000 tons this month from 603,200 tons in September.
Fourth-quarter lithium prices are expected to depend on when major mines resume production and how actual battery demand develops. If the environmental review of CATL's Jianxiawo mine is completed this year, concerns about increased supply could intensify. A delay until next year, however, could ease downward pressure on prices.