The Elec周末复盘Meta三季报：营收超预期但AI资本开支致自由现金流转负，股价已两日重挫

Meta shares plunged despite strong third-quarter earnings as massive capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) raised concerns about mounting financial pressure.
Meta shares fell more than 7% on Oct. 22 local time. Despite revenue growth that exceeded market expectations, concerns about deteriorating cash flow from large-scale AI infrastructure expansion weighed on the stock.
Meta shares closed approximately 0.47% higher in regular trading on the day of its earnings announcement, supported by expectations of strong results. Its fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $73 billion to $76 billion also exceeded forecasts, initially sending shares up more than 3% to 4% in after-hours trading and above $717. However, the stock reversed course sharply during the earnings conference call as continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure and the resulting cash flow pressures came into focus.
Meta reported record third-quarter revenue of $64.6 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. Strong performance in its core digital advertising business helped revenue comfortably exceed the market forecast of $63.37 billion. Advertising impressions increased 10%, while the average price per ad rose 14%.
However, rapidly rising capital expenditure (CAPEX) weighed on the results. Meta’s third-quarter capital spending reached $34.91 billion, exceeding the $32.79 billion in cash generated from operating activities and resulting in negative free cash flow (FCF) of $2.12 billion. This meant the company spent more on AI data centers and infrastructure than it generated in operating cash.
Management’s commitment to further investment added to market concerns. Meta raised the lower end of its annual capital expenditure forecast from $130 billion to $135 billion and increased the upper end to $145 billion.
Meanwhile, one-time expenses of $9.89 billion, including settlements related to lawsuits involving teenage mental health, contributed to a 37% decline in quarterly operating profit to $13 billion. Excluding legal expenses, Meta’s third-quarter operating profit increased 11%.
The premium on five-year credit default swaps (CDS) insuring Meta’s debt against default surged to a record 114.79 basis points. The increase reflected changing perceptions of Meta’s financial position on Wall Street and in credit markets. Bloomberg reported that investors were concerned about rising financing costs associated with large-scale borrowing.
Reuters also reported that Meta’s plan to introduce nonvoting Class C shares to finance AI investment had heightened investor concerns. Meta plans to distribute one Class C share for each existing Class A or Class B share and subsequently use the new shares to raise capital. The market views the move as an attempt to secure external funding while preserving CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s control over the company.