BenzingaDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 02:36:55·⟳ 抓取 02:37:38 +43s·⚡ 决策 10-14 02:39:17 +1m39s·13.9 天前
22V Research 的 Jordi Visser 独家访谈：看好美光长期盈利但更偏好光模块与加密货币，存储股当日因长鑫存储(CXMT)新品供应预期下跌
这是一篇个人投资者/分析师的观点专访，不含任何公司层面新增硬事实（无新订单、无指引变动、无确认/否认）。Visser 对美光方向自相混合（长期看多、已小仓买入，但短期更偏好别的板块），未点名任何可买入的光模块个股。当日存储股大跌的真正催化是 SCMP 关于 CXMT 年底推出高密度服务器内存的报道，属于多年期供给宽松叙事，且 MU −5.5%、海力士 −10.1% 已在盘中实时重定价，访谈本身没有提供可执行的预期差。
📄 原文Benzinga↗ 原文
EXCLUSIVE: Micron Is Not Close to Peak Earnings, Jordi Visser Says. But He Prefers Optics and Crypto
Jordi Visser does not think Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is close to its earnings peak. Yet, he would still rathe…
不做 Micron Technology（MU.US）
观点性专访、无新增公司事实且方向混合（长期看多/短期不增配）；当日下跌由 CXMT 供给报道驱动并已盘中反映，无事件级预期差，多空均不成立。
不做 Lumentum Holdings（LITE.US）
仅作为年内已涨156%的板块举例被提及，未获点名、无新增基本面催化，追高无 edge。
不做 Coherent Corp.（COHR.US）
仅作为年内涨51%的板块举例被提及，未获点名、无新增催化，不构成买入理由。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Benzinga 专访是单一分析师的资产配置观点，对美光长期看多但短期不增配、未点名光模块个股，无新增可核验事实；存储股当日下跌由 CXMT 供应报道驱动且已在盘中反映，无事件级交易 edge，故回避。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-13 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
主要风险
- 真正的下行催化是 SCMP 的 CXMT 高密度服务器内存报道；若后续获 CXMT/产业链确认并给出明确量产份额与时间，可能形成对存储板块（MU/SK海力士）更硬的供给端做空逻辑，需另行跟踪，本访谈不构成该证据。
- Visser 长期看多存储、认为盈利峰值尚远，与其短期减配偏好并存，单凭此访谈做空或做多都缺乏一致方向。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
信号内反向证据：CXMT 年底推出高密度服务器内存、新增供应或缓解紧缺，Visser 亦称存储毛利率终将回落；叠加10年期收益率5.22%、AI 泡沫担忧，压制估值，削弱对美光追多理由。
检索:Micron CXMT server memory supply earnings peak bearish guidance memory margin 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
信号内反向证据：美光营收创纪录、毛利率86.8%、远期市盈率仅约5.4倍，Visser 明确称未见盈利顶且已在1000美元下方买入、周期见顶在数年之后，削弱即时做空逻辑。
检索:Micron record revenue 54.23 billion gross margin 86.8% no earnings peak Visser bought below 1000 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:因缺乏可交易的新增事实且方向混合，先例空缺支持回避而非凭感觉入场。
方向:无对齐先例：本条为观点性专访而非可重复的公司事件（财报/订单/政策），历史价格先例不适用于个人评论；真正可研究的同类事件是‘CXMT 等中国厂商新增存储供给→全球存储股反应’，但本信号未提供该事件的一手锚点。
涨幅量级:不足以校准幅度，未用任何数字设定止盈止损。
形态:无可归纳的见光死/高开低走模式。
工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 13 ms
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原文全文
展开原文 · 4,250 字
Jordi Visser does not think Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is close to its earnings peak.
Yet, he would still rather put new money somewhere else.
The head of AI Macro Nexus Research at 22V Research told Benzinga in an exclusive interview on Tuesday that he bought Micron shares over the past three months, as the stock fell below $1,000.
The position is smaller than the one he sold in May. Now, his favorite areas are optics companies and crypto.
Visser Sees No Earnings Peak for Micron
Micron was down 5.5% at $934 on Tuesday afternoon, on track for a fourth straight decline. It trades 23% below its June 25 record close.
In Seoul, SK Hynix Inc. (NASDAQ:SKHY) dropped 10.1% and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF) lost 7.4%.
The pressure came from China.
ChangXin Memory Technologies, known as CXMT, expects to launch a denser server memory product around year-end, the South China Morning Post reported. More supply could ease the shortage behind record memory profits.
"I do not think we are close to an earnings peak for Micron," he said.
He expects a memory cycle to "eventually play out," but not in the next couple of years.
Why Visser Prefers Optics and Crypto
Even so, his Micron position will not be as large as it was six months ago.
"I think there are better places to put money for the next year," Visser said.
"I am focused on the rise of personal/consumer agents now and the beginning of the Vera Rubin data center platform," he added.
Vera Rubin is the next generation of AI data center hardware from Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA).
"This leaves me with optics companies and crypto (financial guardrails for AI commerce) as my favorite areas going forward," Visser said.
Optics companies make the lasers and fiber links that move data inside AI data centers. Visser did not name individual stocks.
Among optical component makers, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) and Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) are up 156% and 51% this year.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) traded near $83,100, down 5% in 2026.
Why Record Profits Earn a Low Multiple
Micron reported record revenue of $54.23 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter, nearly five times the level of a year earlier.
Yet the stock trades at about 5.4 times the earnings analysts expect for fiscal 2027, according to TradingView consensus data. The S&P 500 trades at 19.1 times, according to FactSet.
A low forward price-to-earnings multiple means investors doubt the profits will last.
Visser gave three reasons.
"Because memory has historically been cyclical, investors do expect that memory companies are going to hit that cyclical earnings peak soon," he said.
The second reason is the wider market. The S&P 500’s multiple was 22.2 in January.
Visser said that compression carries "a risk built in that some companies have a terminal value issue from AI competition." Terminal value is what investors assume a business will be worth many years from now.
The third is interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield trades at 5.22%, after touching a 24-year high of 5.36% last week.
"With rates rising there is a growing fear that an AI bubble could pop," Visser said.
"All of this is about the uncertainty of where AI will be in the coming years," he added. "I expect this pressure to remain."
Memory Demand Has No Cliff, but Margins Will Fall
Visser compared memory to oil.
"We will need massive amounts for a long time," he said. "That does not mean that supply won’t catch up with demand."
"We need more oil every year and supply and demand is close to balance," he added.
In his view, an AI-driven advance, such as more efficient models, will eventually close the gap between memory supply and demand.
"I don’t think there is a cliff where memory demand drops but margins will certainly drop at some point," Visser said.
Micron’s gross margin, the share of revenue left after production costs, reached 86.8% last quarter.
His caution extends beyond memory.
"I have a very negative view on all public companies by 2030 based on AI impacting future certainty of all businesses regardless of what you do," he said.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
Yet, he would still rather put new money somewhere else.
The head of AI Macro Nexus Research at 22V Research told Benzinga in an exclusive interview on Tuesday that he bought Micron shares over the past three months, as the stock fell below $1,000.
The position is smaller than the one he sold in May. Now, his favorite areas are optics companies and crypto.
Visser Sees No Earnings Peak for Micron
Micron was down 5.5% at $934 on Tuesday afternoon, on track for a fourth straight decline. It trades 23% below its June 25 record close.
In Seoul, SK Hynix Inc. (NASDAQ:SKHY) dropped 10.1% and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF) lost 7.4%.
The pressure came from China.
ChangXin Memory Technologies, known as CXMT, expects to launch a denser server memory product around year-end, the South China Morning Post reported. More supply could ease the shortage behind record memory profits.
"I do not think we are close to an earnings peak for Micron," he said.
He expects a memory cycle to "eventually play out," but not in the next couple of years.
Why Visser Prefers Optics and Crypto
Even so, his Micron position will not be as large as it was six months ago.
"I think there are better places to put money for the next year," Visser said.
"I am focused on the rise of personal/consumer agents now and the beginning of the Vera Rubin data center platform," he added.
Vera Rubin is the next generation of AI data center hardware from Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA).
"This leaves me with optics companies and crypto (financial guardrails for AI commerce) as my favorite areas going forward," Visser said.
Optics companies make the lasers and fiber links that move data inside AI data centers. Visser did not name individual stocks.
Among optical component makers, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) and Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) are up 156% and 51% this year.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) traded near $83,100, down 5% in 2026.
Why Record Profits Earn a Low Multiple
Micron reported record revenue of $54.23 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter, nearly five times the level of a year earlier.
Yet the stock trades at about 5.4 times the earnings analysts expect for fiscal 2027, according to TradingView consensus data. The S&P 500 trades at 19.1 times, according to FactSet.
A low forward price-to-earnings multiple means investors doubt the profits will last.
Visser gave three reasons.
"Because memory has historically been cyclical, investors do expect that memory companies are going to hit that cyclical earnings peak soon," he said.
The second reason is the wider market. The S&P 500’s multiple was 22.2 in January.
Visser said that compression carries "a risk built in that some companies have a terminal value issue from AI competition." Terminal value is what investors assume a business will be worth many years from now.
The third is interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield trades at 5.22%, after touching a 24-year high of 5.36% last week.
"With rates rising there is a growing fear that an AI bubble could pop," Visser said.
"All of this is about the uncertainty of where AI will be in the coming years," he added. "I expect this pressure to remain."
Memory Demand Has No Cliff, but Margins Will Fall
Visser compared memory to oil.
"We will need massive amounts for a long time," he said. "That does not mean that supply won’t catch up with demand."
"We need more oil every year and supply and demand is close to balance," he added.
In his view, an AI-driven advance, such as more efficient models, will eventually close the gap between memory supply and demand.
"I don’t think there is a cliff where memory demand drops but margins will certainly drop at some point," Visser said.
Micron’s gross margin, the share of revenue left after production costs, reached 86.8% last quarter.
His caution extends beyond memory.
"I have a very negative view on all public companies by 2030 based on AI impacting future certainty of all businesses regardless of what you do," he said.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
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