Mark Yusko称比特币公允价值约10.5万美元，但认为涨势将缓慢持续约一年半

Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko says Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) fair value sits at $105,000, yet he expects the climb there to stay slow rather than explosive.
Why Yusko Thinks Bitcoin Just Flipped Bullish
Yusko told the New Era Finance podcast Tuesday that Bitcoin has shifted from a distribution pattern, where sellers dominate, into an accumulation pattern marked by higher highs and higher lows.
He pointed to a double bottom near $60,000 earlier this year, formed on rising volume, as the first real signal that selling pressure had exhausted itself.
Bitcoin’s bear markets have historically lasted almost exactly 364 days from peak to trough across three prior cycles, Yusko said, a pattern tied to block counts rather than calendar years.
That timeline pointed to early October as a potential final low, and a short pullback into the low $70s played out before the rally resumed.
Why Yusko Calculates Bitcoin’s Fair Value at $105,000
Yusko uses Metcalfe’s Law, which values a network based on its number of users and connections, to estimate Bitcoin’s fair value.
He pegs that figure at roughly $105,000 today, expecting it to grow 7% to 8% annually as adoption increases.
Last October, he estimated fair value sat closer to $85,000 to $90,000 before Bitcoin overshot to $125,000, which he called a predictable byproduct of human psychology rather than a rational move.
He expects price to drift toward fair value over the next year and a half before overshooting again after the 2029 halving, repeating the same boom-bust pattern seen in prior cycles.
Why He Sees This Cycle Moving Slower Than Past Ones
Yusko ties Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to the halving, which cuts miner rewards in half and forces price higher to keep mining profitable. He breaks each cycle into three buyer groups:
- Investors who accumulate below fair value
- Traders who show up once price starts moving
- Leveraged speculators who eventually push price into a parabolic blow-off
Returns shrink naturally as Bitcoin’s market cap grows larger, Yusko argued, calling exponential growth projections mathematically implausible once an asset reaches trillions in value.
Moreover, he estimated Bitcoin could hit $15 trillion in market cap within five to ten years, roughly matching gold’s monetary value, which he puts at half of gold’s total $30 trillion market.
Why Yusko Still Holds Bitcoin as a Long-Term Store of Value
Yusko tied his bullish stance to currency devaluation, noting the U.S. issued $10 trillion in debt over its first 245 years and another $10 trillion in just the last five.
He argued gold and Bitcoin serve as protection against inflation since Bitcoin’s fixed supply mirrors gold’s role as money existing without a corresponding liability.
He said he personally holds Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) STRC preferred shares, which pay a 12% yield, to cover near-term living expenses, while treating Bitcoin and gold as long-term stores of value meant to outlast currency depreciation over decades.
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