摩根大通Q3罕见盈利不及预期，Dimon警示高利率长期化或拖累消费信贷

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned that an "aggressive extended rate cycle" could eventually weaken consumer credit, even as the U.S. consumer remains resilient and spending continues to grow.
Dimon Says Higher Rates Could Eventually Pressure Consumers
JPMorgan executives said the strength of the labor market has helped keep consumers healthy, with debit and credit card spending rising 10% year over year during the quarter.
But Dimon and CFO Jeremy Barnum cautioned that sustained restrictive monetary policy could eventually bring higher unemployment and weaker consumer credit.
Barnum said consumers have remained healthy largely because of a strong labor market, but noted that an extended period of restrictive monetary policy would eventually have consequences.
“The consumer is currently very healthy, primarily because of a healthy labor market,” Barnum said.
“But if the central bank needs things to cool off, and that involves an aggressive extended rate cycle, almost by definition, that’s going to involve higher unemployment, which will produce weaker consumer credit results.”
Dimon also pointed to growing leverage and increasingly aggressive credit terms as areas where JPMorgan is becoming more cautious.
“We are tightening up a little bit on credit,” Dimon said. “I think some of the credit terms have gotten a little bit loose.”
He cited weaker covenants, higher leverage and more aggressive financing structures as areas the bank does not need to chase.
“We just do not feel you have to chase that kind of stuff anymore,” he said.
Dimon believes that the bank remains willing to support clients even as markets become more volatile, but does not intend to ignore emerging risks.
“The bond volatility, the market, the fear is not going to change what we do. We serve clients through thick or thin,” Dimon said.
Dimon Warns Inflation And Asset Prices Remain Key Risks
In his comments following JPMorgan’s latest quarterly results, Dimon pointed to several forces that could challenge the U.S. economy despite its current resilience.
“The U.S. economy continued to be fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending,” Dimon said. “However, large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface.”
Dimon stopped short of predicting a specific downturn or market event, emphasizing that JPMorgan’s approach is to remain prepared for different scenarios.
“These forces may be manageable, but we remain prepared for a wide range of outcomes,” he said.
That caution extended to the possibility of a sharp rise in longer-term interest rates. During the earnings call, Dimon was asked how resilient the economy could be if the 10-year Treasury yield reached 6% and the Federal Reserve resumed raising rates.
“I think you have to… we always prepare for all different events. That is not the same as predicting them,” he said.
Dimon said a 6% 10-year yield could emerge for very different reasons, including strong demand for capital and productivity gains or, alternatively, persistent inflation.
"They could happen for good reason, which is a lot of demand for capital, a lot of productivity, and things are fine,” he said. “They could happen for bad reasons, in sticky inflation around the world."
He added that the move could also be driven by developments outside the U.S.
“I have always thought there is a higher chance than other people. I still kind of think that, but that is not a prediction. That is just think of that as cautious preparation,” Dimon said.
JPM Posts a Rare Profit Miss
JPMorgan reported a rare profit miss, with net income of $15.3 billion or $5.57 per share on revenue of $50.91 billion. Data from Benzinga Pro shows that Wall Street expected earnings per share (EPS) of $5.94 on revenue of $51.26 billion.
The investment bank reported that it continued to see strong customer activity. JPMorgan added more than 650,000 net new checking accounts during the quarter and maintained its top position in U.S. retail deposits for the sixth consecutive year.
For Dimon, the strong current performance does not eliminate the need for caution. JPMorgan’s strategy, he said, is to continue investing in its franchise and maintaining the capacity to support customers through changing economic conditions.
“Hopefully we’ll enjoy this good environment for a while,” Dimon said. “We just don’t know when it’s going to stop."
Price Action: JPMorgan shares were up 0.21% to $332.26 in Wednesday’s pre-market trade, after closing 0.86% lower on Tuesday at $331.43.
Benzinga Edge Rankings show weak price trends for JPMorgan in the short and medium terms, but strong in the long term.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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