美国9月CPI超预期、核心通胀走阔，市场已重定价10月加息概率至54%且股债金即时下挫

On Tuesday, the script for the Federal Reserve’s October meeting looked settled. Policymakers would hold rates, wait for more data and let the midterm elections pass.
On Wednesday morning, a hotter-than-expected September consumer price index rewrote it.
Traders now see a 54% chance that the Fed raises rates at its Oct. 28 meeting.
A day earlier the chance was 20.7%, and a week ago it was 24.1%, according to 30-day fed funds futures tracked by CME FedWatch tool.
The economists reacting to the report are warning about more than one meeting.
They are talking about debasement. That is the relentless loss of the dollar’s purchasing power when a central bank lets inflation run.
The September CPI Report Beat Forecasts Where It Matters
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% in September after 0.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. That matched forecasts.
The annual rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, above the 3.6% economists expected.
Gasoline did much of the work.
Pump prices rose 9.1% in the month and accounted for more than half of the overall increase. The energy index gained 5.2%.
However, the number that moved markets was core inflation.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in September against a 0.2% forecast.
The annual core rate rose to 2.6% from 2.4%, above the 2.5% consensus.
The gains were spread widely.
Recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care and apparel all rose in the month, according to the BLS.
Why Economists Are Talking About Debasement
The debasement argument works in steps.
Prices rise faster than the Fed’s 2% target. If the central bank holds rates anyway, real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation) fall.
Savers then earn less, in real terms, for holding dollars. Some of that money moves into assets that cannot be printed, such as gold and other precious metals.
Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, put it bluntly on X.
"Not a good CPI number," Brooks wrote. He noted that a spike in wireless services had driven last month’s core reading, which gave the Fed "a reasonable excuse" to pause.
"But today’s reading puts an October hike back on the table. If the Fed doesn’t hike, debasement wins."
In a second post, Brooks pointed to the political calendar. The odds of a hike would be higher, he wrote, if the October meeting were not "right before the midterms." The elections take place on Nov. 3.
"If the Fed doesn’t hike, it’ll be a big catalyst for gold and precious metals to take off," Brooks added.
Inflation Is No Longer Just an Energy Story
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said the report shows price pressures moving beyond fuel.
"Inflation pressures are broadening beyond energy and are now filtering into other categories, including apparel and autos," Roach said.
He noted that new and used vehicle prices have now risen for three straight months, reversing the trend from earlier this year.
"As the Middle East conflict continues, inflation pressures are becoming more widespread across other categories," he added.
Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, pointed to an unusual source of pressure: technology.
Core prices rose with "widespread gains, including in sectors like computers and smartphones, as price pressures related to the AI building spillover to consumer goods," she said.
Oxford Economics expects a hike this month.
"The larger than expected increase in the core CPI in September increases the odds that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its meeting later this month, which is our forecast," Vanden Houten said.
Bond Traders Moved First
Treasury yields rose across the curve on Wednesday.
The two-year yield, the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy, climbed 10 basis points to 4.90%.
The 10-year yield rose about 7 basis points to 5.29%. That is still below the 5.34% it touched earlier this month, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year yield added 4 basis points to 5.60%.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, gained 0.5% to 102.73.
Gold – as tracked by SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – fell 1.5% to about $4,100 an ounce, and silver dropped 3.7% to $56.95.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) slipped 0.2% to around $82,870.
The S&P 500 – tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – sunk 0.7%, minutes after the open in New York.
Image: Shutterstock
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.