Benzinga复盘：泛林集团(LRCX)九连跌创1984年上市以来最长连跌，但无新增基本面催化

One of the most consistent winner of the AI capital-spending cycle has just done something it never managed in four decades as a public company: fall for nine sessions in a row.
Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:LRCX) has closed lower every day since Oct. 5, shedding 21.7% over the stretch.
Going back to its May 1984 listing, the stock had never strung together more than eight consecutive declines. The old record ended on Sept. 28, 2015, in the wake of that summer’s China-driven selloff.
It is not alone.
KLA Corp. (NASDAQ:KLAC) is also down nine straight, off 16.3%, tying its own record from January 2008.
Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) has fallen eight sessions in a row, down 21.3%, its longest slide since September 2018.
The entire wafer-fab equipment complex is being sold as one trade.
Wall Street, however, has not changed its view. Twenty-one of the 22 analysts tracked by Benzinga rate LRCX stock a Buy. The average price target of $346 implies 26.3% upside from Thursday’s $274.12.
Why Chip Equipment Stocks Are Selling Off
The selling goes beyond Lam. It has hit the companies that build the machines used to make chips.
On Tuesday, Applied Materials Inc. fell 7% on its investor day, its sixth straight loss.
The company declined to give a forecast for wafer fab equipment spending, which is the money chipmakers spend on tools to build and upgrade factories.
As a result, investors lost a benchmark for the industry’s growth plans.
The pressure continued on Thursday. Applied Materials dropped another 4.9% and KLA Corp. slid 3.4%.
The pullback also follows a large rally. Lam closed at a record $433.33 on June 30. It now trades 37% below that peak, but it is still up 60% this year.
Why Analysts Are Not Blinking
Morgan Stanley’s Shane Brett lifted his target to $385 from $367 on Oct. 5, writing: "The SPE industry has blown past demand (cleanroom) and supply (supply chain) constraints, as we expect the WFE run-rate to surpass $200bn (+60% y/y) in the DecQ."
"LAM is set to be the fastest grower for the 3rd year in a row," Brett added. "We’re more confident than ever on the durability of LAM’s leading logic share gain."
B. Riley Securities lifted its target to $390 from $350 on Oct. 1.
Not every move was higher, though. UBS trimmed its target to $425 from $435 on Sept. 1, and Mizuho cut to $365 from $370 on Aug. 25.
UBS’s Timothy Arcuri, who holds a Buy rating and $425 target, said to expect a "very strong" report on Oct. 21 and "even more robust" guidance.
"This earnings season for the semicap group (much like last quarter) will be likely less about quarterly numbers, but rather more about capacity expansions and margins trajectory," he wrote.
Earnings On Oct. 21 Are The Next Test For Lam Research Stock
Lam reports September-quarter results on Oct. 21, with a conference call at 5 p.m. ET.
The company guided for $8.1 billion in revenue, more than 20% above the record $6.72 billion it reported for the June quarter.
It also guided for adjusted earnings of about $2.15 per share at the midpoint, compared with a record $1.82 in the June quarter.
For now, the two signals point in different directions. The stock has fallen for nine sessions, a first in its 42-year history. Analysts still see upside of more than 25%.
The streak shows that buyers have stepped away from the stock. It does not, by itself, show that the business has weakened.
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