Benzinga 借 Kalshi 预测市场盘点 Meta 周三盘后财报看点，本身无新增基本面事实

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the bell, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg under pressure to show returns on the company’s soaring AI spending.
Analysts expect earnings of $5.89 per share on $63.36 billion in revenue, up nearly 24%. The call begins at 4:30 p.m. ET.
On Kalshi, traders expect plenty of AI discussion, but give just a 1% chance of hearing the name of a company supplying Meta with up to $27 billion in computing capacity.
What Kalshi Predicts Meta Will Say
“Muse” leads at 98%, with at least three mentions required.
Meta’s AI agent has attracted 10.9 million downloads and 2.5 million daily users since September, according to Sensor Tower. But its push into online shopping faces resistance: Amazon blocked Muse from purchasing products on its website.
“Cloud” trades at 93%. Meta is buying computing capacity from specialist providers, including Nebius, while building its own infrastructure.
Meta revealed Monday that its Prometheus supercluster in Ohio is operational, with plans to expand toward one million Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs.
“Silicon” sits at 74%. Meta is developing four generations of custom AI chips with Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), aiming to reduce computing costs and reliance on Nvidia.
“Ray-Ban” trades at 70%, versus 36% for “Oakley,” Meta’s newer AI glasses range aimed at athletes.
Both are made by EssilorLuxottica (OTC:ESLOY), which reported Tuesday that wearables revenue grew 20% to €486 million, down from nearly 100% growth the previous quarter.
The figures include Meta’s smart glasses and Nuance hearing devices.
What Kalshi Predicts Meta Will Skip
“Algorithm” trades near 50%, while “Advertising” sits at 40%, despite ads generating $59.4 billion of Meta’s $60.8 billion in second-quarter revenue.
Meta disclosed last week that its new Generative Ads Model improved conversions by 18.9% and click-through rates by 12%. The mention odds reflect the wording of the call, not whether management will discuss its largest business.
“Age Verification” sits at 20%, while “TikTok” trades at 19%.
Meta’s $18 billion settlement with U.S. states imposes tighter age checks and limits on teenage social media use.
The deal ties $5.3 billion of Meta’s payments to TikTok and YouTube adopting similar protections and making matching payments. Meta also expects a $10 billion legal charge this quarter.
“Hyperion” trades at just 17%. Meta’s planned five-gigawatt Louisiana data center faces growing financing concerns, with the Financial Times reporting that bonds linked to the project have fallen below face value.
“Nebius” sits at 1%, despite Meta’s five-year computing agreement with Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS), worth up to $27 billion.
The deal includes $12 billion in dedicated capacity beginning in 2027, plus up to $15 billion in additional purchases. Meta did not name Nebius on its previous earnings call, suggesting management may discuss infrastructure spending without identifying individual suppliers.
Reading the Board
Meta expects to spend $130 billion to $145 billion on capital expenditures this year, with FactSet analysts projecting $196 billion in 2027.
The spending is already eating into cash flow. Meta generated $31.9 billion in operating cash flow last quarter, but just $784 million remained after capital expenditures.
With Muse gaining users and advertising revenue surging, Zuckerberg must convince investors that Meta’s mounting AI spending will pay off.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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