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🏢 公司NewsroomLRCXCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:05:00·⟳ 抓取 04:05:29 +29s·⚡ 决策 07-30 04:42:07 +36m38s·89.6 天前

Lam Research财报小幅超预期并大幅上修下一季指引,但半导体设备财报先例不支持追高

本次新增利好来自9月季收入指引81.0亿美元、非GAAP EPS 2.15美元,明显高于首轮核实的一致预期约71.1亿美元和1.84美元。

📄 原文LRCX↗ 原文
Lam Research Corporation Reports Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 28, 2026
FREMONT, Calif., July 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Lam Research Corporation (the "Company," "Lam," "Lam Research") today an…
不做 Lam Research(LRCX.US)
虽然指引上修方向明确,但权威aligned先例+3日胜率0%、中位数-2.29%,且盘后已涨逾7%,BUY_AT_OPEN追高期望值不足。
不做 Applied Materials(AMAT.US)
只是半导体设备同业外溢,缺少本事件对AMAT订单或指引的直接增量,且同业财报先例整体偏负。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-29 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-07-29 16:05 ET官方确认/否认Lam Research newsroom一手源原文 ↗
    公司盘后发布6月季财报和9月季指引,披露收入67.22亿美元、非GAAP EPS 1.82美元、下一季收入指引81.0亿美元。
  2. 2026-07-29财经媒体扩散Investor's Business Daily非一手原文 ↗
    媒体确认本次为beat-and-raise,指出9月季指引明显高于华尔街预期。
    市场反应:报道称LRCX盘后上涨逾7%。
  3. 2026-07-29 after market市场反应Investor's Business Daily非一手原文 ↗
    盘后同向跳涨说明市场正在重定价,但结合先例面板,次日追高的期望值不佳。
    市场反应:LRCX盘后涨逾7%。

关键理由

  • 本次新增利好来自9月季收入指引81.0亿美元、非GAAP EPS 2.15美元,明显高于首轮核实的一致预期约71.1亿美元和1.84美元。
  • 但权威先例显示同市场同相位半导体设备财报后表现偏弱:aligned样本+3日胜率0%、中位数-2.29%,+5日胜率0%、中位数-3.18%。
  • LRCX权威快照显示事件前20日已下跌34.39%、近5日连续重挫,当前更像高波动修复窗口而非可用财报追多先验。

主要风险

  • 盘后涨逾7%若直接高开,结合TER、ASMPT等先例中的高开低走特征,追高容易变成财报兑现后的派发。
  • 中国收入占26%,若电话会对中国需求、出口限制或订单可持续性表述转弱,会进一步压低设备链估值。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 event_study · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 invalidates
    同市场同相位aligned样本+3日胜率0%、+5日胜率0%,显著削弱首轮追高做多结论。
    检索:authoritative_event_study aligned semiconductor equipment earnings beat and raise 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
    LRCX事件前20日-34.39%、近5日-16.27%,且波动率接近5%,说明当前价位处在高波动下跌趋势中,开盘追涨容错低。
    检索:authoritative_current_snapshot LRCX last_20d_pct last_5d_ohlc 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
    本次新闻稿披露中国收入占26%,若电话会对出口限制或中国客户订单转弱会削弱多头,但当前发布稿未出现新增负面指引。
    检索:Lam Research China exposure export controls risk July 2026 earnings 原文 ↗

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 9/10 TER 2026-07-28 Teradyne Q2 2026 EPS/revenue大幅超预期,Q3 EPS和收入指引显著高于一致预期,AI/存储测试需求驱动;次日大幅高开后收回到开盘下方,见光死特征强。 原文 ↗
    测TER在2026-07-28财报后+1交易日反应
    相似度依据:同为美国半导体设备链财报强超预期并给出显著高于一致预期的下一季指引,但TER更偏测试设备且事发日距离当前太近只取到+1日。
  • 相似度 8/10 ASML 2026-07-15 ASML Q2 2026 beat and raise,Q3 sales guide 11.5bn euros vs 8.9bn consensus且FY2026收入指引上修;事件后+1/-1.7%,+3/-4.2%,+5/-0.7%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -1.7% · +2日 -3.7% · +3日 -4.2% · +4日 -0.8% · +5日 -0.7%
    相似度依据:同市场半导体设备龙头、同为beat-and-raise财报催化,但ASML是ADR且产品周期/EUV独占属性不同于LRCX。
  • 相似度 8/10 0522 2026-04-22 ASMPT Q1 2026收入/EPS高于市场共识,bookings显著强于预期,Q2收入指引中点同比+37%且高于共识;事件后+1/+1.5%,+3/+9.0%,+5/+8.1%,但次日高开后低走。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +1.5% · +2日 +8.6% · +3日 +9.0% · +4日 +11.7% · +5日 +8.1%
    相似度依据:跨市场但同为半导体设备/先进封装设备公司,财报与订单/下一季指引均强,机制接近。
  • 相似度 7/10 LRCX 2026-04-22 Lam Research 2026年3月季EPS和收入均高于预期,但下一季指引预期差弱于当前。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -2.6% · +2日 +0.8% · +3日 -2.3% · +4日 -5.4% · +5日 -6.3%
    相似度依据:同一公司同类财报后交易,但上次只是温和beat,本次还包含大幅上修指引。
  • 相似度 7/10 AMAT 2024-11-14 Applied Materials FY2024Q4 beat,但下一季收入指引略低于一致预期、EPS略高;事件后+1/-9.2%,+3/-9.0%,+5/-5.3%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -9.2% · +2日 -8.2% · +3日 -9.0% · +4日 -8.3% · +5日 -5.3%
    相似度依据:同为美国晶圆设备大市值公司财报催化,但该次下一季收入指引略低于一致预期,更像强业绩但指引不够强的反例。
  • 相似度 7/10 0522 2025-07-23 ASMPT 2025中期业绩披露AI带动订单,Q3收入指引中点QoQ+8.9%、YoY+10.8%;事件后+1/+11.3%,+3/+9.1%,+5/+5.9%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +11.3% · +2日 +12.0% · +3日 +9.1% · +4日 +9.9% · +5日 +5.9%
    相似度依据:跨市场同设备链,AI订单和下一季收入指引改善与LRCX强指引逻辑相近,但规模和流动性低于LRCX。
  • 相似度 6/10 LRCX 2025-07-30 Lam Research 2025年Q4 EPS和收入均超预期。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -4.3% · +2日 -2.7% · +3日 -0.7% · +4日 -2.4% · +5日 -3.2%
    相似度依据:同一公司年度同相位财报,但历史预期和AI设备周期位置不同。
  • 相似度 6/10 ASML 2026-04-15 ASML Q1 2026 EPS/revenue beat但Q2 sales outlook低于一致预期;事件后+1/-4.8%,+3/-0.4%,+5/-2.6%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -4.8% · +2日 -1.5% · +3日 -0.4% · +4日 -1.5% · +5日 -2.6%
    相似度依据:同市场同产业链财报催化,但下一季销售展望低于一致预期,用于校准半导体设备财报兑现后走弱风险。
  • 相似度 5/10 TSM 2026-07-16 TSMC Q2 2026强劲业绩并上调展望,同时提高资本开支;事件后+1/-2.8%,+3/+3.6%,+5/+1.4%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -2.8% · +2日 -1.8% · +3日 +3.6% · +4日 +2.8% · +5日 +1.4%
    相似度依据:不是设备商,但同AI半导体资本开支链条且是设备需求端核心客户,可验证强业绩/上修展望在半导体链上的方向性。

原文全文

展开原文 · 7,999 字
FREMONT, Calif., July 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Lam Research Corporation (the "Company," "Lam," "Lam Research") today announced financial results for the quarter ended June 28, 2026 (the "June 2026 quarter").
Highlights for the June 2026 quarter were as follows:
- Revenue of $6.72 billion.
- U.S. GAAP gross margin as a percent of revenue of 51.7%, U.S. GAAP operating margin as a percent of revenue of 37.4%, and U.S. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.81.
- Non-GAAP gross margin as a percent of revenue of 52.0%, non-GAAP operating margin as a percent of revenue of 38.4%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.82.
Key Financial Data for the Quarters Ended | ||||||
U.S. GAAP | ||||||
June 2026 | March 2026 | Change Q/Q | ||||
Revenue | $ 6,722,238 | $ 5,841,488 | +15.1 % | |||
Gross margin | 51.7 % | 49.8 % | + 190 bps | |||
Operating margin | 37.4 % | 35.0 % | + 240 bps | |||
Diluted EPS | $ 1.81 | $ 1.45 | +24.8 % | |||
Non-GAAP | ||||||
June 2026 | March 2026 | Change Q/Q | ||||
Revenue | $ 6,722,238 | $ 5,841,488 | +15.1 % | |||
Gross margin | 52.0 % | 49.9 % | + 210 bps | |||
Operating margin | 38.4 % | 35.0 % | + 340 bps | |||
Diluted EPS | $ 1.82 | $ 1.47 | +23.8 % |
U.S. GAAP Financial Results
For the June 2026 quarter, revenue was $6.72 billion, gross margin was $3.48 billion, or 51.7% of revenue, operating expenses were $965.3 million, operating margin was 37.4% of revenue, and net income was $2.28 billion, or $1.81 per diluted share on a U.S. GAAP basis. This compares to revenue of $5.84 billion, gross margin of $2.91 billion, or 49.8% of revenue, operating expenses of $863.5 million, operating margin of 35.0% of revenue, and net income of $1.83 billion, or $1.45 per diluted share, for the quarter ended March 29, 2026 (the "March 2026 quarter").
Non-GAAP Financial Results
For the June 2026 quarter, non-GAAP gross margin was $3.50 billion, or 52.0% of revenue, non-GAAP operating expenses were $916.4 million, non-GAAP operating margin was 38.4% of revenue, and non-GAAP net income was $2.28 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share. This compares to non-GAAP gross margin of $2.91 billion, or 49.9% of revenue, non-GAAP operating expenses of $866.2 million, non-GAAP operating margin of 35.0% of revenue, and non-GAAP net income of $1.85 billion, or $1.47 per diluted share, for the March 2026 quarter.
"Lam delivered record revenue, operating margin and earnings per share in the June quarter as AI-driven demand continues to reshape the semiconductor industry," said Tim Archer, Lam Research's President and Chief Executive Officer. "Our strategic investments and technology leadership are helping customers accelerate through rising manufacturing complexity, positioning Lam for a third consecutive year of outperformance in 2026."
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Results
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash balances increased to $5.60 billion at the end of the June 2026 quarter compared to $4.77 billion at the end of the March 2026 quarter. The increase was primarily driven by cash generated from operating activities, partially offset by cash deployed for capital return activities during the quarter.
Deferred revenue at the end of the June 2026 quarter increased to $2.43 billion compared to $2.22 billion as of the end of the March 2026 quarter. Lam's deferred revenue balance does not include shipments to customers in Japan, to whom title does not transfer until customer acceptance. Shipments to customers in Japan are classified as inventory at cost until the time of acceptance. The estimated future revenue from shipments to customers in Japan was approximately $490.2 million as of June 28, 2026 and $434.3 million as of March 29, 2026.
Revenue
The geographic distribution of revenue during the June 2026 quarter is shown in the following table:
Region | Revenue |
Taiwan | 27 % |
China | 26 % |
Korea | 20 % |
Japan | 9 % |
United States | 9 % |
Southeast Asia | 5 % |
Europe | 4 % |
The following table presents revenue disaggregated between systems and customer support-related revenue:
Three Months Ended | |||||
June 28, | March 29, | June 29, | |||
(In thousands) | |||||
Systems revenue | $ 4,249,848 | $ 3,730,582 | $ 3,437,625 | ||
Customer support-related revenue and other | 2,472,390 | 2,110,906 | 1,733,768 | ||
$ 6,722,238 | $ 5,841,488 | $ 5,171,393 | |||
Systems revenue includes sales of new leading-edge equipment in deposition, etch and other wafer fabrication markets.
Customer support-related revenue includes sales of customer service, spares, upgrades, and non-leading-edge equipment from our Reliant® product line.
Outlook
For the quarter ended September 27, 2026, Lam is providing the following guidance:
U.S. GAAP | Reconciling | Non-GAAP | ||||||||
Revenue | $8.10 Billion | +/- | $400 Million | — | $8.10 Billion | +/- | $400 Million | |||
Gross margin | 52.0 % | +/- | 1 % | $ 2.7 | Million | 52.0 % | +/- | 1 % | ||
Operating margin | 39.5 % | +/- | 1 % | $ 3.0 | Million | 39.5 % | +/- | 1 % | ||
Net income per diluted share | $2.15 | +/- | $0.15 | $ 3.3 | Million | $2.15 | +/- | $0.15 | ||
Diluted share count | 1.255 Billion | — | 1.255 Billion |
The information provided above is only an estimate of what the Company believes is realizable as of the date of this release and does not incorporate the potential impact of any business combinations, asset acquisitions, divestitures, restructuring, balance sheet valuation adjustments, financing arrangements, other investments, or other items that may be completed or realized after the date of this release, except as described below. U.S. GAAP to non-GAAP reconciling items provided include only those items that are known and can be estimated as of the date of this release. Actual results will vary from this model and the variations may be material. Reconciling items included above are as follows:
- Gross margin - amortization related to intangible assets acquired through business combinations, $2.7 million.
- Operating margin - amortization related to intangible assets acquired through business combinations, $3.0 million.
- Net income per diluted share - amortization related to intangible assets acquired though business combinations, $3.0 million; amortization of debt discounts, $0.5 million; and associated tax benefit for non-GAAP items ($0.2 million); totaling $3.3 million.
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Results
In addition to U.S. GAAP results, this press release also contains non-GAAP financial results. The Company's non-GAAP results for both the June 2026 and March 2026 quarters exclude amortization related to intangible assets acquired through business combinations, the effects of elective deferred compensation-related assets and liabilities, amortization of note discounts, workforce optimization charges, and the net income tax effect of non-GAAP items.
Management uses non-GAAP gross margin, operating expense, operating income, operating margin, net income, and net income per diluted share to evaluate the Company's operating and financial results. The Company believes the presentation of non-GAAP results is useful to investors for analyzing business trends and comparing performance to prior periods, along with enhancing investors' ability to view the Company's results from management's perspective. Tables presenting reconciliations of non-GAAP results to U.S. GAAP results are included at the end of this press release and on the Company's website at https://investor.lamresearch.com.
Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Statements made in this press release that are not of historical fact are forward-looking statements and are subject to the safe harbor provisions created by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements relate to, but are not limited to: our outlook and guidance for future financial results, including revenue, gross margin, operating margin, net income per diluted share, and diluted share count; the effect of AI-driven demand on the semiconductor industry; the rising

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