MYFW周评复述Moderna与Merck癌症疫苗III期阳性，未形成新增交易催化

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended the week lower, weighed down by rising interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, spurred by renewed concerns about the national debt and recent debt issuance by AI hyperscalers. Higher oil prices and attendant inflation concerns also put upward pressure on yields.

As is often the case, Wall Street will ignore something obvious until it chooses not to. Higher interest rates are the most recent example. Despite long-term rates rising over the course of July, Wall Street seemed to pay little attention. Of late, however, higher rates seem to be creating some angst, fueled in part by recent headlines announcing the national debt had surpassed $40 trillion.

In an effort to lower long-term rates, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Wednesday that the Treasury would increase its buyback of 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion. Though the number itself was rather insignificant compared to the $3.5–$4.5 trillion of 20- and 30-year Treasuries outstanding, the messaging that the Treasury is willing to take action was far more important. Though rates declined on the news, they rebounded to prior levels the following day, suggesting investors doubt the Treasury’s ability to single-handedly control the long end of the yield curve.

This week, all eyes will be on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, as the Fed convenes its annual Economic Policy Symposium. Previous Fed Chairs have used the gathering to make notable policy announcements. Current Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made clear his aversion to providing forward guidance. However, given the market’s current concerns about higher rates and inflation, failure by Warsh to provide any insight into how he expects the Fed to lower inflation could be met with increased market volatility, indicating doubt or concern about Warsh’s willingness to raise rates to combat inflation.

Economic Commentary

According to S&P Global, manufacturing and service sector activity continued to expand in the first half of August, with service sector growth accelerating to its fastest pace since December 2024. Though manufacturing expanded at its slowest pace in 13 months, the two sectors combined enjoyed their strongest growth since April 2022. In a positive sign for both employment and future growth, jobs were added at the fastest pace since the start of 2025, while business growth expectations reached a nine-month high.

Housing data continued to exhibit its inherent volatility as housing starts fell 12.4% in July after jumping 19.7% in June. Compared to a year ago, starts were down 13.5%. Single-family starts declined 9.9% in July to their lowest level since November 2022, highlighting the continued challenges facing the housing market.

Pending home sales, which measure homes under contract that have not yet sold, fell 2.3% to their lowest level since the start of the year and remained 30% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on activity.

On Note

Biotech company Moderna (ticker: MRNA) announced positive results from a Phase 3 trial of a cancer vaccine developed in conjunction with Merck (ticker: MRK). Unlike more traditional treatments, such as chemotherapy and immunotherapy, the vaccine is personalized to target the specific mutations unique to each patient’s cancer. Though further work needs to be done, the vaccine could help usher in an era of personalized cancer treatments.

Market Indices (As of 08/21/2026)

S&P 500
-1.4%

Small Caps
-1.7%

Intl. Developed
-0.6%

Intl. Emerging
1.2%

Commodities
3.8%

U.S. Bond Market
-0.1%

10-Year Treas. Yield
4.74%

U.S. Dollar
-0.9%

WTI Oil ($/bl)
$87

Gold ($/oz)
$4,662

The Week Ahead

Core PCE Inflation

2Q26 GDP

New Home Sales

Durable Goods Orders

Personal Income & Spending

Consumer Sentiment

Initial Jobless Claims