Tikehau 创始人播客长访谈：创业史与私募信贷行业观点，无新增公司事实

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单集:Tikehau: From Second Mortgage to $60 Billion Empire
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When you started Tikehau did people around you just think you were crazy? The FT quoted us ‘The crazy French pair’. Everyone seems to say Europe is in decline. Do you agree with that statement? We started Tikehau, we had €4 million of AUM and then we had ta near-death experience. You’re in your early 30s. And you're kind of fighting against the biggest names on Wall Street. We're not only managing someone else money. We have our own money there. You know, we have a second mortgage on the house. You know. Private credit is exploded. Are you at all worried? Okay. What makes someone in their late 20s leave a safe career and bet everything on themselves? Started in finance in the City of London. I’m in my early 20s. I get to meet my co-founding partner, Antoine Flamarion. I'm a first year analyst. A second year analyst. And then, you know, you do the all-nighters. You know, in these cubicles, you know, for years. And then you you look at what's happening here in the US. You know, the emergence of one would call today. Alternative asset managers. And you go, you know, why don't you give it a try. And when you started Tikehau, did people around you just think you were crazy? Actually, I even think that the FT, you know, at some point, you know, quoted us a crazy French pair, but, you know, that's for the record. But I mean, certainly, you know, we started Tikehau, we had a €4 million of AUM, as you would call today. Right. So it's a lot of money in absolute terms, but in relative term for the business, you know we're in that was very modest. So actually a lot of people you know when I told them I was moving on that we were, you know, going ahead with Antoine, certainly some people thought we were crazy. And was there a point after setting out where you and Antoine thought, actually, this might work? Certainly. You know, what does not kill you make you stronger. We started in 2004. And then very quickly, you know, the ramp up to the, what we call now, the GFC. Right. But effectively, if you if you remember, you know, what was happening back then, you know, this exhibit lands Wall Street and the finance being extremely creative, abundant. You know, all these new new products. And we enter as a firm back then. We have €400 million, I think of AUM you know, when we get into September, October oh eight. Okay. And then we had the new desk experience because, you know, you've got this liquidity squeeze, you've got some names of Wall Street buyers, terms Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, who, you know, we used to work for where we where we met. You know, we don't one who had to be bailed out over the weekend. So having this experience young. I mean as a young professional, but only on in an entrepreneurial journey, I think that was probably the best the best experience looking back, what that could, that could happen to us. And I would add to that, that the people who were working with us back then, maybe the firm is, I don't know, 40 people and most of them are still with us today, almost 20 years later. Can you remember that time around 2008 quite vividly? Almost every single day. I wouldn't say every single hours, but every single day, you know, the, when you hear the story. So September 15th 2008, the Lehman Brothers, you know, day. That's a Monday. And back then you got the Pope in Paris this weekend, and the Pope delivers a massive speech on Saturday morning. And he's kind of, you know, questioning the finance world and all that, you know, in his own, you know, job, if I may say. And so you're like, you know, it's a you're thinking about that over the weekend because there's a lot of stress in the system and, you know, you know, bailed out already a few months before Lehman Brothers that no one saw, you know, going sideways, you know, so quickly. And then, you know, you go to the office on Monday morning and, Lehman Brothers, by the way, was one of our custodians, like, you know, custodian. And so you start the day and basically they're telling you what the assets you were supposed to be having with these custodians are gone because they've used the repo close that, you know, a lot of people discovered at that time, and the mother company here in New York had basically sucked up all the liquidity that they could find around the world. So, yeah, I mean, long answer to tell you, yes, I can remember every single actually hours now. Yeah. Would you say the most stressful period in your entire career? It was certainly stressful. You know, we're in our early 30s. We went all in, you know, as you said, because that's also the model of, you know, we were not only managing someone else money and we hit the wall because there is, you know, once, once in every century, you know, crisis. We have our own money there, you know, like, I mean, we, we have a second mortgage on a house, on a flat, you know, to be able to be in this business. And and we're like, we're not letting that go. You know that easily because people tell us, well, you know, it is what it is, right? And and so, you know, we are in this in this moment where you're fighting every single minute, where you start getting your lawyers, where you start going after some large institutions in Wall Street actually looking backwards, I remember some lawyers telling us, oh, we don't want to work for you because we cannot go against some of these institutions, but you had to fight for what is your, you know, that was the that was fundamental for us. It was existential. It's crazy. You're in the early 30s. Yeah. It's real. You've got a second mortgage on your property. Yeah. And you're fighting against the biggest names on Wall Street. I think nobody never experienced that. And by the way, to that day, and I don't know, maybe you will be discussing that, but, you know, the period where in when some people say, oh, maybe it's another 2008 and all that effectively, there's one thing we learned. You know, for a fact that you cannot cheat with experience. You know, and experience comes with this type of situation where you you are in the extra ordinary and for you, you know, what you thought was effectively the going concern of your business is all of a sudden being turned upside down and something you've never experienced. And we were surrounded by then by some partners, you know, who had joined us, who were, you know, slightly older than we were. You know, we started our career in the late 90s, and some of them had studied the career and they went through 87. They went through the, you know, from the Black Monday of 87. And even if it was totally different because it was purely a equity market sell off when or it was more credit driven, which was more of background and, and it's a prime and all this good stuff. That's when being surrounded by these type of people who could, you know, tell us not to sit down and relax or to keep calm and carry on, because that was not that simple. But that's where, you know, having these partners, mentors, shareholders, investors surrounding you was very valuable, you know, not to, I would say effectively not to panic because when you are in the unknown, that's where normally you lose the rational. That should be a driving any, any decision you're taking. And to take you back, you've raised, let's say, 4 million large amount of money at the time. Did you ever think that all these years later you could build something so huge? Listen, there was certainly part of the ambition, as I said when we started, we like to use, you know, this anecdote that we started in 2004, we're managing, you know, 4 million and back then Blackstone, you know, the, you know, the best of the breed and who's been for many an example in building the firm then managing 40,000,000,040 billion is a large amount of money. But in the grand scheme of things of where they are today and where the industry is today, it's a fraction, right? I mean, we're at whatever 60 today in dollars term. And so because we're watching this, a very entrepreneurial platform, I think that there is one common theme around, you know, those very large alternative firms that effectively made such a difference over the past 20 years or 40 years is that they've all been built by entrepreneurs. Do still, you know, at the helm of the I mean, they are driving the bus, you know, in in many circumstances. And, you know, we're watching them, you know, we're watching them and we're going it's very inspiring, you know, to a, as you know, young professional and and so there was certainly the ambition, the plan was not to be the biggest or to be. And certainly back then you know, that, you know we couldn't think about that, you know, managing it. But but there was this ambition, I think the drive hopefully a little bit of vision and also being able to adapt because post GFC, Ruffin's change, they change in the US, they change, you know, all the more, you know, in Europe and the whole financial industry that has been, you know, reshuffled some way. You know, they it evolved in a different regulatory environment. And and Europe as a playground is still one that, I believe you can, you can build the next, you know, the next gen of the relevant financial industry players. So I don't know if it was about, you know, if we ever thought we would be there now. But there's always been this constant, you know, a strong ambition. Yeah. On that topic, everyone seems to say Europe is in decline. Do you agree with that statement? Well, I mean, a lot of people say that here in the US, right? Because it's a it's helping the cause. But, you know, if we're being you know, you're sitting in London and I come from Paris, we've got some we've got some operations, you know, across Europe with boots on the ground. You know, everywhere, you know, in Milan, in Madrid, in Amsterdam, in Brussels, in Frankfurt. You need boots on the ground. You need to be connected with the local community, with the entrepreneurs, with the asset owners. And so, regardless of the geopolitical environment we're in, I don't think Europe is going anywhere. But are they some benefits and merits for Europe when it comes to a part of the energy transition that is required because of what we're going through, all the different themes on the pure financing side, on the private credit side, and when you look at the structure of the European market relative to the US market, you know, you've got so much to build. So I think you cannot paint with with a big brush. You know, black or white. You know, the type of the type of situation we might be entering in a world where it's somehow a bit less interconnected, which, by the way, in my view, will lead to maybe some really allocation of some of the large saving pools from the asset owners. And so if you are well positioned there, you can take advantage of that. Be relevant to your client, your investor clients. The companies are invested into the companies you're, you're financing. And that is in our view, you know, you know, a massive opportunity structurally, you know, there. And I would add that that's maybe the slight negative. The public markets in Europe are certainly lagging, you know, the the US market. And that makes even more the case for private for private markets player to be the relevant alternative. Have you heard of this thing. You're maxing Europe. Maxing. No. It means like it's kind of like you know everyone says, you know, Europe is in the line, don't go to Europe. And Europe doesn't produce anything compared to the US. It's like the kind of counterculture to that. So it's like people in Europe online, you know, putting that there in a cafe in Paris, they're doing a hike in Frankfurt. Yeah. It's kind of like pushing back on the narrative that, you know, everything's going bad and it's horrible, but it's quite cool. Yeah. Well, and, you know, I mean, this time of the year, you'd be surprised how many Americans friends are telling me, asking me for some advice as to where they should be going, you know, between Spain, Italy or the French Riviera. So at least we still have that, you know. Do you think that ambition, the ambition that you've shown has come at a price to you? When I look at the, you know, the, the, the journey and where we are in this journey because it's very kind of, you know, to say that, you know, the platform is a is a is where it is today. But for us, it's just, you know, step in this in this journey. And first of all, you cannot do that on your own. Or even we're lucky with two of us without when we started the two of us. But we're surrounded by a team of colleagues, partners. Many of them become friends over the years. As I said earlier. I mean, the very fact that we experienced the situation together, you know, really, that's, that was existential. And today, many of these colleagues, you know, there are running some countries, geographies, some businesses, whilst they were young interns or young professional, you know, back then because that was 20 years ago. So there are some good days, there are some bad days. You know, it's not about, thinking about, you know, our own feelings, but just, you know, keeping your head down and making sure that the firm is best position with the right people. Because every single game, if I may say, you know, it's different and you would not have the same, same configuration. But today, you know, there's no single day where I'm not I'm not coming back home saying that, you know, what we are up building with our team is relevant, that if we can keep on building that, that there is a need. You know, we never want to become a commodity, which could be a risk in some part of the, you know, of the industry. I've never looked back. And I think, you know, we've never looked back and quite, you know, only in a only looking forward because the best is yet to come in the, in the, in the platform. We can we can build and I mean, so I think it's easier today than what he was, you know, 20 years ago. So, when I look at our peers and friends here in the, our friends here in the, in the US and they're, you know, the way they managed to scale, the way they managed to transform, actually, you know, the financial industry, there is a massive opportunity for us right there. It's funny, I always think around the private credit alternatives more broadly in finance. There's so many entrepreneurs, springing up and have sprung up in the past 30 years. A lot of the guys in us seemed to come from Drexel and the extracts of employees of which I've interviewed a ton. Yeah, but it's interesting that Europe has some as well, and it all seems to come from this kind of alternatives world. And I'm sure you've experienced that with meeting these guys and getting to know them. And it's your reference to Drexel is interesting because, you know, in the the early days, you know, we would read, you know, the obviously the barbarians at the gates, but you know, the predators ball, you know, from Michael Lewis and the, you know, the story of Drexel and Mike Milken and who has been so inspiring for so many people here on Wall Street, but even us back then, and we were seeing in Paris in the leverage finance department, and yet we were reading the books about high yield bond. And my dissertation at school was about bonds, which was something that few people knew about. And it's very interesting that you're picking specifically on Drexel because you there's been this group of people, many of them, you know, are running, you know, the largest, the largest organization here. I've been lucky since I moved to the US to attend the Milken Conference, the Milken Global Conference. And as much as you know, Mike, today is in a different phase of his is personal journey and focus. But, you know, you sit there, you listen for one hour. You know, if he's a keynote and you're like, you know, you still have a lot to learn from these people. And and your point about Europe effectively, we were lucky in the, in the late 90s, you know, first at Merrill Lynch, Antoine went to Goldman Sachs, I was at Deutsche Bank. And the group of people we we met over the years. If you had the same evolution into other large institutions, some of them have been, you know, and effectively started and launched, but, nothing to the scale of what Drexel has been in terms of getting together this group of of people which are, you know, I mean, for us, they've been so inspirational about the journey, the entrepreneurial journey, but more fundamentally about the product, about the innovation. Because if if an eye is born today, like it seems like it's a, it's bread and butter, you know, back then, you know, I remember when I saw it on the desk at Merrill Lynch, that was a it was a, you know, something new, you know, which was for the Americans here, you know, it's been a bread and butter for some time. It's funny because sometimes I think finance in finance, we, we have a branding problem because if you think about tech you have the PayPal mafia. So you have this brand of the PayPal mafia. And you know, all these guys end up, you know, Reid Hoffman goes to LinkedIn, you go, you got Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, all these guys and originates from kind of one firm or one kind of time. And then they have such good branding that that kind of label sticks with them throughout their life. You never hear of the Drexel Mafia or the Drexel Gang or. But they recognize each other. Of course, you may not hear that, but you know what what what what what what they've been through. But the one thing I would say, you know, regarding your point about Europe, is there is less a culture of entrepreneurial journey in the finance industry in Europe, very institutional. I mean, you have some great private equity funds, you have some great hedge funds or mutual funds, but there's been less story like you have in the US of entrepreneurial journey of this story, where from chaos to Blackstone, they were studied with $400,000, you know, in 76, 84. You know, respectively, we saw, I mean, the 4 million that I referred to as Tikehau Antoine and I, you know, we had €400,000 that we put in the business because that's what we could do back then and in Europe, because maybe the model is in France. In Germany? Very much so. Less so actually, you know, in Italy or Spain, kind of intuitive. London is more of a obviously, it's a wider playground when it comes to the financial industry, but you've got less of this cultural entrepreneurial story where people can refer to this, the culture you're during the parallel with. But I think it's changing and that's that's a great news. I mean, look at the, on the fintech side on the neo bank, you know, look at the massive successes of revolute, for example, you know, in a, you know, in Europe and the pay at which and when we interact with the people over there, you see the quality of people there. They're in their early 30s, you know, like they were they were maybe at school, I mean, suddenly at school, you know, during the financial crisis we're talking about. And so that's why I believe, you know, people should not bury Europe, you know, to quickly, you know, because you have this wealth of entrepreneurs, a of diverse culture. That's that's the thing that, you know, I think we, we sometimes underestimate in Europe is that it's a diverse culture from a across, you know, across the continent. And when they all end up in London, for example, you know, around this project, you know, you get something more, I think you get something more. And that's why we're getting, you know, still a lot of attention from global investors. It's interesting you brought up the the culture and the culture of Europe and the UK, I think, and in France particularly versus the culture in the US. And I definitely think they had this thing in New Zealand, the tall poppy syndrome. You had this thing. Yeah. The poppies go and then you say, oh what are you doing. Why are you doing that? Kind of like the instant reaction to building something new or even trying something new is criticism. Yeah. So I think, I mean, the UK, it's kind of changing a bit. They still you still kind of see it quite often, but I'm sure it's the same in kind of France and Germany. The culture is slowly changing with the younger generation I think. Absolutely. You know, there are and I'm getting to the point now. You know, I've got my kids all growing. I see them with their friends at school, in university. I mean, yes, there are still some people looking at, you know, they want to join what I mean, Wall Street or, you know, the financial financial industry, but only as a first step to learning and being able to do something already, which was not the case in my generation. I mean, we're the anomaly. I mean, Antoine and I, we are the anomaly of any analyst or associate class we belong to back then. Now, you know, that's that's shifting somehow. And I think people I think people, you know, understand that, you know, it's a it's not a home run all the time. I think that slowly in Europe, the, the notion that, yes, it's okay to fail, which is a big thing here in the US, right? A huge thing that you hear in the university. Any entrepreneurs, you know, would tell us in Europe. And I think we can say in Europe, because that, I guess, is common to all the other countries over there. That was that was less the case. And I think it's getting into it. And I think it's great because and actually, you know, I actually think that that is a consequence if you think about that, it might be a very positive consequence of the GFC that created the very low interest rate environment that we had for 10 or 15 years. That gives access to a lot of cheap or cheaper money. Not to say, you know, free money. And so that has given the opportunity to many entrepreneurs to try at a lesser cost. And maybe that has been a structural feature that has that is fitting this cultural change. That would be a that would be the biggest benefit of, of this past 15 years if that was the case. Yeah. I think it's a decent theory. Yeah. Move on to markets. Private credits exploded, particularly over the past five years. Are you at all worried? Okay, so let's step back. I mean, credit where I started as a young analyst. Credit goes with default in Europe. You have the banks still highly regulated and like you know the US. So for them the constraints on doing business on much higher and the capital market as we said that are probably not as efficient as there are in the US. And so you were left with these people who did not qualify for one or the other. That's why, you know, there is this massive opportunity for private credit in Europe. So that's for the structural aspect. Now, when people start questioning the cycle and have they been too much money, going to to a wrong place might be for some, when you are the last and the marginal dollar coming that you raise a lot of money very successfully. And by the way, that you're managing that through some open ended funds. Evergreen. Because now we cannot say semi liquid anymore. But, you know, excuse me, but that's, you know, rule number one of asset liability matching. Right. So so there were some features for people to get a little bit, you know, into trouble. And so I don't think there's any systemic risk that's a personal belief. So this one if I may say is a healthy reminder that with credit comes default and with credit comes cycles. And they are, you know, extremely tied to interest rates. Interest rates are movement. We think at Tikehau, that being not only a highly invested in our own businesses, we're not prevent us from doing, you know some some bad deals. But normally we'll give you a double pair of eyes on the underwriting that you are you are doing. And again, not being forced in deploying for the sake of deploying and being still being a an asset picker, you know, an asset. You know, being in the asset selection more than being just a broker, you know, that is printing a printing paper. There is this massive difference, once again, which is structural between the US and Europe. And right now, I think the opportunities for direct lending in Europe, primary lending in Europe. And I think that the opportunity in the US is about secondary private debt. It will be about providing liquidity to some people who may be overweight as a consequence of the cycle. And so when you're able to to balance both markets, remaining very disciplined in their underwriting, you, you you can whether these various, these various moments in the cycle. I often wonder about like, you know, the press interest around private credit potentially if you combine that with new entrants in terms of asset owners buying up more private credit than they have done historically, but also the retail, retail wealth, let's say. So you have these kind of two compounding things together, which is creating, I guess, more noise. That's my personal theory. And I think and I think you're right, you know, it's creating more attention. I mean, remember, I mean, it started we used to be called shadow banking. When was that? Like 15 years ago. Shadow banking. Yeah. On the on the back of the GFC. And I'm not a native English speaker, but shadow banking doesn't sound very rosy, right? I mean, like, so you know, I haven't heard about shadow banking for a long time and quite the contrary, it became very institutional in the US, obviously. I mean, in Europe where you had a number of, large institutions getting there, you know, promoting the asset managers to be an alternative source to a to credit. And, and let's be honest, you know, we're in this situation where we've got this mega cycles of CapEx requirement globally for for various reasons. I mean, here in the US, if I sketch it to meet, it's about all the digitalization and all these data centers investment. I will not debate whether or not there will be some misallocation of capital. But right here, right now, there is this massive opportunity and we see all the capital going there. Europe benefits from that too. But we've got two other massive opportunities that I referred to that I mentioned earlier, the energy transition, because people woke up to the fact that you cannot be 100% dependent to a fossil fuel. So deep, deep, once in a lifetime CapEx opportunity, investment opportunity that cannot be provided only by the by. Bye bye bye public money. Because public money, you know, in many places, you know, the states are not the most creditworthy creditworthy investors right now. So private capital has a massive opportunity there. And then, you know, defense I mean, obviously that's unfortunately very topical. But this whole macro geopolitical change as open, this, reality that money has to come from somewhere. It will be part of that public. But as I said, you know, you cannot keep, you know, printing public public money and digging the deficit. And that will come from a from the private, from the private allocators and from the asset owners. And that's the good news, by the way. I mean Europe and Asia and the Middle East. They are large asset owners. I mean the retail investors. You're talking about retail. They are savers, you know, and and they become very mindful to how the money should be used. Right. And they're like, no, I'm not sure that my money should be buying some tenure treasuries, you know, as a saver. You know, in my, in my pension. In terms of AI infrastructure, when you put them up against the trends you just mentioned or priorities, I guess, how would you where would you rank kind of AI infrastructure and everything kind of downstream of that in your priorities for the next, say, 3 or 5 years. So there are top priorities, and actually it's not for the next 3 or 5 years. It's for the past five years, we've been heavily involved in financing, financing, data center development. So as as lenders, you know, we had some shareholders effectively putting the equity a euro, a pound. And we were providing the debt. And the past five years there's been a very interesting, cycle, you know, to be effectively involved there. Then we came to the view that there was a lot of money chasing some assets and that the, you know, the pricing, the, the underwriting, and the payback that we could get from such an investment on a relative basis, we thought that we could, you know, make better investment elsewhere. So and it's not once again, it's not it's not mutually exclusive, but it always comes down to supply demand. So very high priority. But at the right return at the right risk adjusted returns. And we like the situation at Tikehau where there is the supply domain imbalance, because that's where you can make effectively a difference in this part of the cycle that you're going to be invested, invested into. So you've been in the kind of the investing game, let's say 30 years ish. Getting close to that. Yeah. Thanks for. Coming after it. Yeah. Yeah. So you've got a good understanding. You've worked in the bullpen, you've started your own company, you've hired people for decades. You've got a good understanding, I think, of what makes a good investor. So how much of a investing do you think is analysis and how much do you think is kind of gut instinct? I think it was the latter. We you know, I think there's been a lot of instinct, a lot of conviction, which obviously does not prevent you from doing the work. But that's how you, you know, we developed and now that you've got a much bigger platform to your point about having hired, you know, and, you know, talent that I mean, I like to say that today, if I was sending my resume to my firm, I would probably didn't get I wouldn't get an interview. Right. And so when I look at the people we have today, you know, out of firms, of course you need to have this Elliott investing, you know, approach. You know, that you are that that that you mentioned. But we're always encouraging our teammates, our colleagues and possibly the most junior 123 Main Street smart not to follow the herd, to be constrained to be to think out of the box, you know, constantly to, you know, to remain a little bit maverick. You know, I guess, you know, in the approach because we really want them not to take something for granted to, challenge any, given of the market, quote unquote. You know, the one thing I hate when people say, oh, the new market standards, I'm like, you're here to break the standards. If you're only here to tell me what the market standards are, you know, we're going to average down everything we're doing, you know, because that's the sell side. You know, the banks, you know, the process that that's what makes the market. So always try to to play on the on the elf you know effectively. So let's say 20 years from now, 20, 25, 30 years from now, what do you want. What would you like Tikehau to become? What would it look like in an ideal world? Okay, so 20 years from now, maybe not 30, but 20 years from now I'll be 70 and 20 will be 73. And when we when we look at, you know, some of the people who pioneered this industry and one now in the late 70s and are still very much on the pitch, you know, every day, you know, you would send an email to, to to some of these founders, they would reply within five minutes when, when you know, you, you would have an average VP in the same organization. You will take three days or maybe not even reply to this email. So, you know, keeping this space and this drive and this and for that you need, you need you need the organization, as I said, to remain relevant and to remain culturally aligned on what we are trying to what we are trying to achieve, which is one of the biggest challenges that most of organizations like ours, you know, are facing. You know, when you go from 2 to 20 to 200 to 2000 people, how do you make sure that you keep the same, the same approach so that that's one that's on the intangible, you know, making sure that the firm remains, keep this little hedge in terms of, you know, getting out of your comfort zone. And it's not for everybody, you know, like, don't get me wrong, some people, you know, and that's fine. I mean, we're not for everybody. But if you can find these people, you know, who are, well, that, you know, hustlers, you know, a competitors, then, you know, then you're in good shape. You need to keep what you just mentioned about having a little bit of this instinct, you know, and, obviously hard worker and smart, etc. at the time of AI, I think it would be even even more fun because the all nighters that we used to put in investment banking and now, you know, we still be putting just to put together some, some financing model or some some credit covenant comps. You know, I've been doing that for four years. I don't know if, you know, Wall Street will be a 50% less a a young analyst or not. But as far as we are concerned, as a firm, I keep telling my my team we're not going to be reducing by 50% of the workforce, but I want you to be at least four times more productive because all these, you know, hours that are spent or well spent into putting the technical work that normally, normally will be, will be taken care of. And so then you'd be, you'd be able to, you know, to flourish in this, you know, in the interpersonal skills, in free up your game, free up your game because that aspect will be taken care of. So, the organization that way I like to look like now, you know, in terms of growth of numbers, it's a, you know, a lot of our, us friends have shown that, you know, I'm not saying that sky's the limit, but, you see where they are today. So even if 20 years is a long time, away the past 20, I've gone pretty fast. So, we should buckle up. Matthew, thank you so much for joining me. Thank you. Joe.