播客嘉宾泛谈中国DUV进展与ASML潜在远期影响，未提供可交易新事实

【播客逐字稿片段 · Invest Like the Best】
单集:Gavin Baker - AI Market Jitters - [Invest Like the Best, EP.485]
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Yeah.

I like, you know, I just I look at what's happening in the stock market and I feel like a foolish optimist >> and then when I talk to people, whether it's people at the labs, whether anyone in this ecosystem, like I'm like bearish relative to essentially everyone, [laughter] which is just a strange state of affairs.

What do you make of the DUV news out of China where I've seen reactions really along a spectrum of like this is the equivalent of like what ASML had in 2001 or something or like no this is actually the first bit of news in a a new story for how we should think about the global supply of cutting edge compute.

I think both could be true.

You know, it's just like um like let's just make an analogy like let's just say a DUV machine was a jet turbine and now like an EUV machine is like a warp drive.

Um you know or what whatever it's going to be, you know, um DUV machine's like a propeller plane.

EUV is like a jet turbine.

Um, but like they didn't have it before and now they allegedly do and that is like a phase transition.

You know, you it's like you've gone from like liquid to solid.

Now that solid that, you know, jet engine, prop plane, whatever is 25 years behind, but still it's important and I don't think should be dismissed.

But I also, you know, it's kind of funny.

You just see this in the stock market.

You know, it's like the stock market massively overreacts and then like if this ever hits ASML's orders, maybe it hits it in 5 years and like the market has forgotten about it, gotten worried about it, forgotten about it, gotten worried about it, forgotten about it multiple times um along the way.

Um so I do think that was probably an overreaction, but we shouldn't dismiss that either.

And if you're China, like this is like really important to you.

Um, and there, you know, there are some reports that like an EV machine had been smuggled into China.

Um, and I mean, what a feat of espionage cuz those things are like giant [laughter] huge.

>> I don't know if that's true.

You know, there's some noise about it, but um, you know, China, they're really, really good.

They're really, really smart.

They work brutally hard and you know they see this as super important for them as a country.

>> Um but are they gonna go from the year 2001 to 2026 or even 200 you know 30?

Are they going to it it because it really is it is >> it's a learning by doing.

>> It's it's a learning by doing and you kind of have to Yeah.

Like you can't >> you can't accelerate the doing.

You can't you can't teleport into the future.

You actually have to go through those learning cycles.

So, is it significant?

Yes.

Did the market overreact?

Probably.