摩根士丹利Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 09:33:13时区推断·⟳ 抓取 09:46:42·⚡ 决策 07-28 09:47:53 +1m11s·91.3 天前
Cadence二季度业绩小幅超预期并上调全年收入和EPS指引
Cadence官方披露Q2收入15.84亿美元、非GAAP EPS 2.11美元，均小幅高于市场预期，并将FY26收入指引上调至约63亿美元、非GAAP EPS中点8.10美元。
📄 原文摩根士丹利↗ 原文
Another Solid Print: Cadence Design Systems Inc | North America
First Take: CDNS gave another solid print with a small beat and raise as previewed. Early traction with agents has been…
不做 Cadence Design Systems（CDNS.US）
排期内财报只是小幅beat-and-raise，盘后已有约4.6%同向反应，开盘追多缺少足够预期差和未price-in edge。
不做 Synopsys（SNPS.US）
Cadence财报只提供EDA行业需求验证，Synopsys未被直接点名且只是同行beta映射，不构成可执行的单名催化。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Cadence正式发布2026年二季度财报，披露收入、EPS、81亿美元积压订单并上调全年收入和EPS指引。
- 媒体报道Cadence业绩超预期并上调全年指引，同时提到盘后股价上涨约4.6%，说明市场已开始重定价。市场反应:CDNS盘后约+4.6%。
关键理由
- Cadence官方披露Q2收入15.84亿美元、非GAAP EPS 2.11美元，均小幅高于市场预期，并将FY26收入指引上调至约63亿美元、非GAAP EPS中点8.10美元。
- 积压订单达到81亿美元，IP、核心EDA和硬件业务均保持双位数增长，说明AI芯片设计需求仍强。
- 但这是排期内财报披露，研究正文也称为“small beat and raise”，盘后已有约4%级别同向反应，短线追高的预期差不足。
主要风险
- 财报类事件通常在披露前已有预期，正式披露后容易高开低走，尤其本次只是小幅beat-and-raise。
- Cadence仍受中美技术管制和中国区收入暴露影响，后续政策风险可能压制估值扩张。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
公开报道提到CDNS盘后已上涨约4.6%，且中国贡献约15%收入、仍有技术管制相关风险；这些不推翻利好方向，但削弱追高性价比。
检索:Cadence Q2 2026 earnings after hours stock reaction China exposure export controls 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,050 字
First Take: CDNS gave another solid print with a small beat and raise as previewed.
Early traction with agents has been described as "strong", saw a record backlog and
Q3 earnings were guided c.5% better than CCS. Growth across all segments was
notable, especially in IP. Hardware had another record quarter with 12 customers
added and relations at hyperscalers deepened. Raises FY guide growth of 19% yy ($6.3bn) and EPS of $8.10 (Street at $7.95).
Key Takeaways
Q2 was a solid beat on margins again (45.5% vs street at 45.0%) and EPS ($2.11 vs
$2.05 expected); sales were also marginally better than expected at $1.584bn.
Bookings were also stronger than expected, with record backlog at $8.1bn, (Q1
was $8.0bn).
Raises FY26 sales guide ahead of street again at $6.30bn (prior $6.18bn) confirms 19% up yy (MS/e $6.22bn), nudges up non-GAAP OP margins to 44.25%.
As such, the company lifts EPS guide for FY26 at $8.10 (street/MSe at $7.95)
Core EDA grew a notable +18% yy, whilst IP rose 40% (Q1: +22% yy) and SD&A
was up 37% yy (including Hexagon).
Early traction with agents has been described as "strong", saw a record backlog and
Q3 earnings were guided c.5% better than CCS. Growth across all segments was
notable, especially in IP. Hardware had another record quarter with 12 customers
added and relations at hyperscalers deepened. Raises FY guide growth of 19% yy ($6.3bn) and EPS of $8.10 (Street at $7.95).
Key Takeaways
Q2 was a solid beat on margins again (45.5% vs street at 45.0%) and EPS ($2.11 vs
$2.05 expected); sales were also marginally better than expected at $1.584bn.
Bookings were also stronger than expected, with record backlog at $8.1bn, (Q1
was $8.0bn).
Raises FY26 sales guide ahead of street again at $6.30bn (prior $6.18bn) confirms 19% up yy (MS/e $6.22bn), nudges up non-GAAP OP margins to 44.25%.
As such, the company lifts EPS guide for FY26 at $8.10 (street/MSe at $7.95)
Core EDA grew a notable +18% yy, whilst IP rose 40% (Q1: +22% yy) and SD&A
was up 37% yy (including Hexagon).
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