摩根士丹利Codex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 09:38:25时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:02:30·⚡ 决策 07-28 10:03:08 +38s·91.3 天前
摩根士丹利维持日立中性评级并发布一季报预览
这只是卖方财报前预览，维持EW评级且明确认为股价接近公允价值，没有形成新的同向交易催化。
📄 原文摩根士丹利↗ 原文
Hitachi: June Quarter Earnings Preview
Maintain EW rating: Since early April, Hitachi’s share price has underperformed TOPIX by 8% (Exhibit 1), and its valuat…
不做 日立（6501.JP）
财报前卖方预览且维持EW评级，无评级/目标价上调或公司一手新增硬催化；正式财报临近，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-28 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium
关键理由
- 这只是卖方财报前预览，维持EW评级且明确认为股价接近公允价值，没有形成新的同向交易催化。
- 报告虽称FY3/27和FY3/28调整后营业利润预测高于一致预期，但核心是一季报前关注点梳理，正式业绩将于7月29日披露。
- GlobalLogic和Hitachi Vantara预测被下调、纳米科技上调，正负信息混杂，无法在当前时点形成清晰多空边际。
主要风险
- 7月29日正式财报若披露电网订单、利润率或GlobalLogic表现明显超预期，可能形成新的独立交易信号。
- 研究报告来源为付费研报摘要，当前没有一手公司披露或评级/目标价上调来支撑交易。
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,028 字
Hitachi: June Quarter Earnings Preview
Maintain EW rating: Since early April, Hitachi’s share price has underperformed TOPIX by 8% (Exhibit 1), and its valuation multiple has declined (Exhibit 2). In addition to concerns over an earnings slowdown at GlobalLogic due to “AI disruption”, the June Investor Day was not enough to materially boost market confidence in AI-driven growth acceleration. While the risk-reward profile has improved somewhat, we continue to view the shares as close to fair value and maintain our EW rating.
Fine-tuning our earnings forecasts: We make no major changes to our forecasts (Exhibit 3). (1) GlobalLogic: Reflecting AI-driven crowding-out of traditional IT services spending and pricing pressure, we lower our revenue growth forecasts to YoY+5% in FY3/27 (from +6%) and FY3/28 (from +8%) (Exhibit 4) (2Q26 CIO Survey: IT Services Lags Broader Budget Acceleration as AI Continues to Crowd Out Discretionary Spend(July 16, 2026)). (2) Hitachi Vantara: Reflecting higher memory prices, we lower our Adj. OPM forecasts to 3% in FY3/27 (from 4.5%) and 3% in FY3/28 (from 4%) (Exhibit 5). (3) Nanotechnology: We raise our revenue forecasts following higher capex guidance from leading logic and foundry customers. (4) FX assumptions: We revise USD/JPY to 155 (from 150) and EUR/JPY to 180 (from 175). Our Adj. OP forecasts are 2% above consensus for FY3/27 and 5% above for FY3/28.
Hitachi is scheduled to report earnings on July 29: We forecast Apr–Jun (1Q) revenue of ¥2.5tn (YoY+10%), Adj. OP of ¥258.4bn (YoY+22%), and Adj. EBITA of ¥284.6bn (Adj. EBITA margin of 11.4%). Our Adj. OP forecast is 4% above IFIS consensus. We estimate that the impact from the Middle East situation (¥20bn at the Adj. EBITA level) assumed in the company’s 1Q guidance did not materially materialize, resulting in progress ahead of full-year company guidance.
Key points to watch: (1) Power Grids orders (GE Vernova’s Electrification orders were $13.4bn in 1H CY26 (YoY+76%), including $5bn from data centers, roughly double the CY25 full-year level (Stronger for Longer; Raising PT to $1,350 (July 23, 2026)), (2) Hitachi Energy’s Adj. EBITA margin, (3) GlobalLogic’s performance, both stand-alone and including group synergies, (4) Hitachi Vantara’s performance, including demand for its new block storage products and the impact of higher memory prices, and (5) Measurement & Analysis Systems (Hitachi High-Tech), where Jan–Mar orders rose YoY+92% and QoQ+57%.
Key points to watch in the earnings announcement include Power Grids orders and margins, the performance of GlobalLogic, Hitachi Vantara, and Measurement & Analysis Systems.
AlphaSignals Earnings Preview
• We forecast FY3/27 1Q (Apr–Jun) Adj. OP of ¥258.4bn (vs. consensus of ¥249.7bn).
• We believe any impact from Middle East tensions in Apr–Jun was within the company's assumptions, limiting the likelihood of any major surprises.
• Key focus areas are Power Grids orders and margins, GlobalLogic, Hitachi Vantara, and Measurement & Analysis Systems.
Maintain EW rating: Since early April, Hitachi’s share price has underperformed TOPIX by 8% (Exhibit 1), and its valuation multiple has declined (Exhibit 2). In addition to concerns over an earnings slowdown at GlobalLogic due to “AI disruption”, the June Investor Day was not enough to materially boost market confidence in AI-driven growth acceleration. While the risk-reward profile has improved somewhat, we continue to view the shares as close to fair value and maintain our EW rating.
Fine-tuning our earnings forecasts: We make no major changes to our forecasts (Exhibit 3). (1) GlobalLogic: Reflecting AI-driven crowding-out of traditional IT services spending and pricing pressure, we lower our revenue growth forecasts to YoY+5% in FY3/27 (from +6%) and FY3/28 (from +8%) (Exhibit 4) (2Q26 CIO Survey: IT Services Lags Broader Budget Acceleration as AI Continues to Crowd Out Discretionary Spend(July 16, 2026)). (2) Hitachi Vantara: Reflecting higher memory prices, we lower our Adj. OPM forecasts to 3% in FY3/27 (from 4.5%) and 3% in FY3/28 (from 4%) (Exhibit 5). (3) Nanotechnology: We raise our revenue forecasts following higher capex guidance from leading logic and foundry customers. (4) FX assumptions: We revise USD/JPY to 155 (from 150) and EUR/JPY to 180 (from 175). Our Adj. OP forecasts are 2% above consensus for FY3/27 and 5% above for FY3/28.
Hitachi is scheduled to report earnings on July 29: We forecast Apr–Jun (1Q) revenue of ¥2.5tn (YoY+10%), Adj. OP of ¥258.4bn (YoY+22%), and Adj. EBITA of ¥284.6bn (Adj. EBITA margin of 11.4%). Our Adj. OP forecast is 4% above IFIS consensus. We estimate that the impact from the Middle East situation (¥20bn at the Adj. EBITA level) assumed in the company’s 1Q guidance did not materially materialize, resulting in progress ahead of full-year company guidance.
Key points to watch: (1) Power Grids orders (GE Vernova’s Electrification orders were $13.4bn in 1H CY26 (YoY+76%), including $5bn from data centers, roughly double the CY25 full-year level (Stronger for Longer; Raising PT to $1,350 (July 23, 2026)), (2) Hitachi Energy’s Adj. EBITA margin, (3) GlobalLogic’s performance, both stand-alone and including group synergies, (4) Hitachi Vantara’s performance, including demand for its new block storage products and the impact of higher memory prices, and (5) Measurement & Analysis Systems (Hitachi High-Tech), where Jan–Mar orders rose YoY+92% and QoQ+57%.
Key points to watch in the earnings announcement include Power Grids orders and margins, the performance of GlobalLogic, Hitachi Vantara, and Measurement & Analysis Systems.
AlphaSignals Earnings Preview
• We forecast FY3/27 1Q (Apr–Jun) Adj. OP of ¥258.4bn (vs. consensus of ¥249.7bn).
• We believe any impact from Middle East tensions in Apr–Jun was within the company's assumptions, limiting the likelihood of any major surprises.
• Key focus areas are Power Grids orders and margins, GlobalLogic, Hitachi Vantara, and Measurement & Analysis Systems.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。