美国银行重申看好TE Connectivity，但核心业绩与收购信息已在数日前披露

TE Connectivity (TE) delivered a strong F3Q and beat Street ests for F4Q. However, shares were weak after the print as the company maintained its guidance for DDN/AI revenues ($3bn+ for F27). AI revs likely grew $100mn q/q in F3Q (in-line with expectations) and we expect another q/q growth for F4Q. AI revs are now more than 70% of overall DDN revs. F4Q guide implies incremental $90mn rev growth q/q. We model Industrial up $174mn q/q & Transport down $75mn q/q (includes total FX impact of around -$50mn). In F3Q, TE saw record orders in both segments ($5.69bn, + 27% y/y, +7% q/q, with Industrial orders +36% y/y, 9% q/q, and Transport orders +19% y/y, and 5% q/q). Reiterate Buy as we expect strong earnings momentum (solid DD EPS growth) and the multiple to rerate higher based on both Industrial growth & solid l-t content growth in Transportation.
Commercial vehicle orders strong
Transport OM grew +90bps y/y to 21% (vs. our expected 21.5%). Margins are showing resiliency in a tough market. Global auto production is expected to be slightly down y/y. In F3Q TE’s China auto business grew 6% while China production was down 2% as exports out of China remained strong. TE’s Europe business had 4pts of outperformance while its North American business underperformed (due to lower vol of higher content EVs). Commercial Transport revs grew 18% y/y (organic) in F3Q and TE saw improving cycle trends and benefited from new program wins and electrification of trucks in Asia.
Astrodyne acquisition enhances the power portfolio
TE announced its intention to acquire Astrodyne TDI for $1.4bn. The acquisition, which is expected to close by end of CY26, will be included in the ACL end market. 40% of Astrodyne’s revenue is in power filtering. The company also has some custom power solutions for the semicap, defense, and medical markets. Astrodyne has annual sales of more than $250mn. Mgmt. expects to realize operational synergies (cost and tax).
Adjusting estimates; PO stays at $290
We adjust our F26 rev/EPS estimates to $19.8bn/$11.42, from $19.6bn/$11.26. Our PO remains at $290 on 23x (unchanged) C27E EPS of $12.87 (prior $12.57).