摩根士丹利维持 Navitas 低配并下调目标价，但财报指引利好与设计定点缺失相互抵消

Progress on the Navitas 2.0 transformation is clear and running ~one quarter ahead of plan; what remains elusive is the formal design-win evidence. JunQ beat at the high end of guidance and was broadly in-line with MSe/Street. SepQ guide of $13.5mn (+28% q/q at midpoint) is ahead of prior MSe, marking the first quarter of y/y revenue growth. Mobile and low-end consumer is on track to be insignificant by year-end, with AI infrastructure - defined as AI data centers+grid/energy - expected to exceed ⅓ of Q4 revenue. Near-term revenue is SiC-heavy in traditional AC/DC PSU designs, and the 800V sidecar opportunity - while real - is not expected to ramp meaningfully until 1H27, which raises the question of whether competitors have already secured the early sockets. The larger GaN step-up remains contingent on later 800V-class architectures, customer qualification, and production allocation, which is dependent on potential changes to Kyber.
While we acknowledge strength in the direction of travel for Navitas, the stock is pricing in a 2027 outcome that record book-to-bill and backlog commentary alone cannot de-risk. We lower our multiple modestly from 50x to 40x to reflect greater duration risk, which brings our PT down from $13.70 to $12.60 and remain UW.
What we learned from the call/callback/release:
1.) (+) Navitas 2.0 running ahead of plan as AI infrastructure mix building faster than expected. High-power markets grew more than 50% y/y in JunQ, with both GaN and SiC contributing to sequential growth and particular SiC acceleration. Mobile exit is tracking ~one quarter ahead of schedule, and AI infrastructure is expected to exceed one-third of Q4 revenue. Record book-to-bill and backlog extending beyond 2026 are constructive, and mgmt described the organizational restructuring as substantially complete with focus now shifting to execution and profitability.
2.) (=) 800V transition is multi-step; pre-800V SiC ramp is the near-term driver, GaN step-up remains 2027+. Mgmt articulated four inflection points, with Inflection 1 (higher-power AC/DC PSUs, SiC replacing silicon) already ramping in 2H26. The 800V sidecar (Inflection 2) is expected in 1H27, with native 800V compute trays (Inflection 3, GaN-critical) ramping through 2027 and accelerating in late 2027/early 2028. Mgmt emphasized the transition happens in multiple steps and that Navitas is not dependent on one NVIDIA platform, one GPU vendor, or one hyperscaler. We find the framework credible but note that formal design-win evidence remains absent and power customers typically dual- or triple-source.
3.) (-) Competitive intensity remains an overhang. Competition from peers remains fierce across both SiC and GaN, and no formal design wins have been announced to confirm Navitas' positioning ahead of the 2027 ramp. Separately, the MagnaChip GeneSiC licensing deal and ongoing Wolfspeed and Renesas litigation introduce additional variables that are challenging to quantify.
Our estimates remain largely unchanged, though we lower our multiple given valuations overall under pressure around the power semi theme.
Key Takeaways
JunQ rev beat vs Street/MSe; SepQ guide beat ($13.5mn vs $11.4/$11.1mn MSe/Street).
Mobile declining as planned; AI Infra expected to exceed ⅓ of revenue by 4Q.
Duration risk for highest-value sockets in 800V remains; no design wins announced yet.
Result Details:
• Details on the June quarter: Revenue of $10.5mn was up 22.5% q/q and down 27.3% y/y, above MSe/Street of $10.0mn/$10.0mn. Non-GAAP GM/EPS of 39.5%/($0.04) were also in-line with MSe 39.3%/($0.04) and Street of 38.8%/($0.04).
• September quarter guide: The company guided to revenue of $13.5mn at the midpoint, up 28.2% q/q and up 33.5% y/y, well above MSe and Street of $11.4mn/$11.1mn. Non-GAAP GM guide of 39.7% at the midpoint was broadly in-line with MSe/Street of 39.6%/39.2%.
• Changes to our estimates: Our FY26-FY27 estimates come up slightly driven by increased revenue guide. Our FY26 estimates come up from $43.1mn/($0.15) to $47.6mn/($0.15) and our FY27 estimates come up from $65.5mn/($0.15) to $68.2mn/($0.10).
• Changes to our PT: We lower our multiple from 50x to 40x CY27 revenue to reflect duration risk, though still at a premium to reflect the potential growth opportunity. Applied to our updated CY27 revenue estimate of $68.2mn, our PT moves from $13.70 to $12.60.