瑞银复盘英特尔业绩上修与供应紧张，提示CPU与先进封装供应链受益

UBS Tech Views: Intel supply chain implications - upside from CPU and packaging
Intel results: strong demand upside amid tight supply. Intel’s stock rose 4% after hours and is up 154% YTD vs. the SOX up 68% YTD, with the incremental lift driven by upside to both Q326 guidance and positive tone for 2026 into following years from strong agentic AI for CPU workloads and improving tone on manufacturing execution. For more details and implications directly for Intel, see the report (link) from UBS covering analyst Tim Arcuri. Below are metrics and implications for the Asia tech supply chain along with Summary Figures.
Q226 sales and margins above led by data center and client PC pricing/pull-ins. Q226 sales grew 19% QoQ and up 25% YoY to US$16.1bn, above street US$14.4bn with Non GAAP GMs 40.4%, above street 39%. Data center led +24% QoQ/+59% YoY to US$6.3bn, above street US$5.5bn while client increased +15% QoQ/+13% YoY to US$8.9bn, above street US$8.1bn due to higher prices for the increase to pass on higher cost and continued pull-ins amid price inflation. External foundry remained small at US$293mn while the foundry segment grew +6% QoQ/+31% YoY to US$5.8bn, above street US$5.7bn on the higher production levels and improving yields, narrowing the operating loss by US $350mn to US$2.1bn.
Q326 guided above on stronger server demand despite supply constraints. Q326 was guided above to a US$15.8-$16.8bn range, +1.1% QoQ/+19.4% YoY at the midpoint, above prior street US$15.1bn, supported by improving server CPU demand and sustained AI infrastructure spending. While wafer output and 18A yields are trending ahead of plan, supply remains constrained across wafers, memory and substrates, with supply growth expected to be skewed toward late-Q3 and Q4, particularly for servers. While PC demand is expected to remain sub-seasonal in 2H26 and down low-double digits for full-year 2026 due to memory cost and availability constraints, improving supply, a stronger product portfolio, and edge-AI deployments should provide partial offsets. GMs was guided to 42%, above street 41%, supported by improving yields and operational execution.
Server CPU outlook improved further on AI-driven demand. Management highlighted improving outlook for server CPU demand, forecasting strong double-digit industry unit growth this year and next, with momentum extending into 2028, supported by agentic AI and inference workloads. The commentary aligns with AMD's recent TAM expansion, which projects the server CPU market to exceed US$200bn by 2030, with AMD management noting CPU demand could move closer to parity with GPUs over time as AI infrastructure scales (link).
Foundry and advanced packaging momentum continues to build. Intel Foundry revenue increased 6% QoQ to US$5.8bn, driven by higher fab volumes as 18A output exceeded targets by ~25% and grew more than 50% QoQ. Management highlighted that 18A yields continue to run ahead of expectations, with 18A-P entering risk production during the quarter. Manufacturing efficiencies also continue to improve, with Panther Lake costs reduced by ~50% YTD and targeted to decline a further ~20% by year-end. Looking ahead, Intel completed 14A PDK 0.5 and remains on track for PDK 0.9 in October, supporting increasingly active customer engagements and higher confidence in future foundry opportunities with target to start high volume production in 2028. For advanced packaging, customer interest in EMIB-T remains strong, with a growing backlog and yields/reliability meeting targets ahead of customer ramps in 2027.