瑞银上调 Amkor Technology 评级至买入并将目标价提高至90美元，但该信息已于7月24日公开传播

We upgrade Amkor from Neutral to Buy and raise our target from US$80 to US$90 factoring a stronger outlook for its advanced packaging business driven off rising server CPU volumes and good support from growth in the base business, tighter capacity and price hikes to pass through inflationary costs. Our prior Neutral rating was predicated on relatively milder exposure to AI ramps vs. peer ASE, high start-up/capex costs ahead of Arizona ramp and already fully priced valuation. We turn more positive factoring Amkor's stronger leverage to a strengthening server CPU market, continued rise of advanced packaging opportunities from the AI cycle and firming utilization/pricing industry wide to support upside to the shares now 30% off June highs at 21x '27 P/E.
Server opportunities expanding for the company
We view the US$1.5bn NVIDIA strategic partnership supporting Amkor's on-going ramp of Vera CPU (we estimate 60% share), GB10 and N1X and future products (likely extending to Rosa). We also see opportunity to pull-in and accelerate 2nd source business for AMD's Venice CPU where demand is upsiding noted by UBS Tim Arcuri's +1.7mn upward revision to 2027 CPU volumes Friday. Factoring the CPU ramps, we now estimate Amkor's advanced packaging business to add US$1.1bn of sales in 2027, growing from from 9% to 19% of sales YoY at accretive 30% GMs vs. 16-18% corporate average. The broader compute business including networking increasingly will drive the business, ramping from 19% of 2025 to 29% of 2027 / 35% of 2029 while comms lowers from 50% to <40% of sales.
Lifting our 2026E growth, reflecting ramp costs into 2027-28
We expect upcoming Q226 sales/margins at the upper half of guidance and lift 2026E growth from +15% YoY to +17% YoY vs. street +14% YoY factoring good share of Vera CPU ramp, auto/industrial cyclical pick-up and single digit price hikes to pass on higher costs. For 2027, we reflect AI strength to revise up sales from the higher base from +18% YoY to +21% YoY driven by full year of NVIDIA Rubin and ramp of AMD CPU. Our 2027 GM/OpM margin improves YoY from 18.0%/9.5% to 18.2%/10.3% with 28% incremental fall-through on the revenue leverage offsetting 100-200bp opex headwind already factored in for Arizona start-up costs. We also raise 2026-27 equipment capex (ex AZ fab costs) from $950mn/$1.1bn to $1.1/$1.35bn and see space freed up transferring SiP from KR to VN to expand advanced packaging to 20k WPM exiting 2027.
Raising estimates and target supported by stronger AI leverage
Factoring structural upside in CPU packaging opportunities, we upgrade from Neutral to Buy and lift 27-28 EPS from US$2.75/US$3.70 to US$3.10/US$4.00, above street $2.47/$2.99 and our price target from US$80 to US$90 based on the same 25x average 27-28E P/E (in-line with ASE target) and supported by 29% '25-30E EPS CAGR.
Q: Can Amkor finally ramp data center packaging and improve its mainstream business?
Yes, at an improving pace. We expect Amkor to grow revenue +17%/21% YoY in 2026/27, above street +11%/+12% YoY ramping advanced packaging projects, from a rebound in mainstream auto/industrial with inventory improving, and additional content in iOS with launch of a foldable model. For the data center, the company has a growing pipeline including Vera CPU, GB10, N1X, Venice CPU, Cobalt CPU, H200 GPU, switch and router, ADAS, and modest oS that should lift this high profile stream from 5% of 2025E to 19% of 2027E sales. EMIB CPU oS outsourcing could also emerge from Intel by 2027-28 as Intel focuses on external foundry customers.
Q: Can Amkor rebound its margins after a steady decline the last decade?
Amkor should reverse a downward trend for its GMs driven by higher SiP business carrying higher material content. SiP increased from US$625mn and 20% of sales in 2014 to US$3.1bn and 46% of sales in 2025 ramping into smartphones and wearables. During that time, material content increased from 37% to 55% of sales to dampen its GMs. We see mix improving as the company shifts to data center, networking and high-end edge compute devices along with growing its test business and lifting pricing as utilization rises. OpM would have a 100-200bp start-up cost headwind ramping AZ in 2027 which would shift to COGs in 2028 before reaching scale in 2029-30.
Q: Will competition from Chinese peers impact Amkor's total addressable market?
Marginally, we view Chinese peers gaining significant share in domestic China but less impactful elsewhere. We believe Amkor's focus on leading-edge technologies has lowered mainstream from 50% of sales in 2015 to <20% in 26. It's also diversified to the US, EU & Japan, with <5% of sales from mainland China & Taiwan, limiting the impact of Chinese competition.
We upgrade Amkor from Neutral to Buy and raise our target from US$80 to US$90 factoring a stronger outlook for its advanced packaging business driven off rising server CPU volumes, tighter capacity and price hikes to pass through inflationary costs. We turn more positive factoring Amkor's stronger leverage to a strengthening server CPU market, rise of advanced packaging from the AI cycle and firming utilization/pricing to support upside to the shares now 30% off the June highs. We lift our price target from US$80 to US$90 based on same 25x average 27-28E P/E (in-line with ASE target) and supported by 29% '25-30E EPS CAGR.
Amkor's focus on advanced technology has allowed it to qualify more AI and CPU projects also ramping faster as hyperscaler capex stays strong to meet rising token demand and cloud backlog. For the broad based business, UBS inventory and distributor trackers along with earnings results indicate a gradually improving business outlook for the mainstream business. Amkor's US fab announcement also was met with strong endorsements by leading partner TSMC and lead customers Apple and NVIDIA and management affirmed adding AMD in June.
Shares have pulled back to 21x/16x our 2027-28, below their recent highs reaching 30x 2027 reflecting concerns on token optimization, lower FCFs at hyperscalers and mild AI exposure for Amkor. We see the stock moving more in favor similar to ASE and maintaining a higher-end valuation vs. peers trading at average 24x 2027 P/E and 19-50x range into its expanding advanced packaging business alongside firming mature business from US$1.51 in 2025 EPS to US$3.10/US$4.00 by 2027-28. We acknowledge risks from AI sentiment swings, execution on projects or cyclical slowdown.