瑞银称Digital Realty二季度经营指标强劲并上调长期FFO预期

Digital Realty Trust: Strong volumes and pricing set the stage for continued double-digit earnings growth
Results included some one-time benefits but we believe underlying trends were still ahead and KPIs were broadly constructive. Bookings of $208M included a new high in the 0-1MW plus interconnect category at $108M. Digital also signed two hyperscale leases in July in Northern Virginia totaling $205M of bookings ($410M including JV partners) and highlighted a growing leasing pipeline, with 1.5GW beginning to become available in 2027-28 (pre-leasing window) amid broader industry supply and compute constraints. Renewal activity was particularly strong, with wholesale deals stepping up 67% on a cash basis, underscoring the opportunity ahead as below-market rents expire (e.g., 2028 renewal vintage expiring at $130/kW versus recent DLR pricing of ~$180/kW). Despite some initial dilution from the Blackstone deal, management raised 2026 FFO/sh guidance by ~1%, or $0.10, and highlighted expectations for double-digit growth over a multi-year horizon (Street at a 10.5% CAGR from 2026-28), with the backlog now at ~30% of in-place data center rent and a growing stream of high-margin fee income. Management downplayed efforts to participate in the broadening wholesale tenant base (neoclouds and AI labs), reiterating its focus on core, investment-grade hyperscale customers.
Updated UBS estimates and outlook
We remain constructive on DLR shares given the hyperscale demand backdrop, execution in the retail business, and tight industry conditions that support the mark-to-market opportunity for data center rents in the coming years. We are increasing estimates based on underlying 2Q results and the updated outlook and now forecast Core FFO/sh of $9.04 in 2027 and $10.03 in 2028 (prior $8.88/$9.84), representing an 11% CAGR.
One-timers help, but underlying 2Q results still ahead
Revenues/EBITDA: Total revenue of $1.92B included ~$200M of promote income, but still came in ~4% ahead of UBSe/Street excluding the fee. Rental and interconnection revenues were 2-3% ahead of Street/UBS estimates, while EBITDA was $978M vs. UBSe $915M/Street $914M.
FFO: Core FFO/sh excluding promote income was $2.13 (UBSe/Street $1.98), up 14% y/y. Results included a ~$27M, or $0.07/sh, benefit from rent recovery associated with an insurance settlement that management indicated was included in the original 2026 outlook, although the timing was uncertain. FX helped by 2c.
Bookings: Total bookings were $208M at DLR's share (UBSe $221M, Street ~$200M) or $307M including JV partners. Hyperscale bookings were led by the Ascenty platform in São Paulo, while 0-1MW bookings totaled $83M, with EMEA posting its highest quarter to date.
Updates to 2026 outlook
Total revenues/EBITDA: Digital guided to $6.85-6.95B of revenue excluding promote income, or a ~$200M underlying increase. Commencements are expected to ramp in 2H, with ~$570M of annualized revenue coming online (we est. some initial contribution from Northern Virginia assets through the Blackstone deal before the assets reach stabilization in 1H27). EBITDA guidance was increased by ~$100M (UBSe $3.82B, prior $3.72B).
Core FFO/sh: Now expected at $8.15-8.20, representing a $0.10 increase at the high end of the range and implying 11% growth versus 10% in 2025. Management indicated FFO/sh should step down in 3Q (UBSe $1.95) due to capital recycling (guidance increased to $1.0-1.5B of asset sales, up ~$500M), seasonally higher utility expenses, repairs and maintenance, and one-time benefits recognized in 2Q.
Development capex: $4.25-4.75B, up ~$750M from prior guidance given recent leasing momentum and development at the new Kansas City site (initial 600MW of grid power in early 2028; a ~$800M leasing opportunity by our ests.).
Renewal: Cash spreads increased 26%, including +67% in the 1MW+ category. Management noted supply-constrained Singapore as a standout contributor and indicated customers were looking to lock in longer lease terms at market rents despite having automatic renewal options. FY26 renewal guidance was increased to 9-11% on a cash basis and 12-14% on a GAAP basis, up from 6.5-8.5% and 9.5-11.5%, respectively.
Valuation: Buy rated
Our price target of $227 is based on 24x EBITDA and 25x ’AFFO/sh on '27-28E (unchanged).