瑞银Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 13:59:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 14:43:24·⚡ 决策 07-28 14:44:49 +1m25s·91.1 天前
瑞银据泰达电二季度低于预期毛利率下修台达电利润率预期
瑞银报告的新增点是把泰达电二季度GM/OpM低于预期外推到台达电二季度毛利率可能弱于原先预估，但台达电正式二季度财报与法说将在7月30日披露。
📄 原文瑞银↗ 原文
Fast Take Delta Electronics
Delta's Thai subsidiary (65% owned/35% of sales): Q2 sales light as expected but GM/OpM below Our Take Delta Thailand w…
不做 台达电（2308.TW）
不做：泰达电二季度利润率低于预期的基础事实7月24日已披露，台达电已连续下跌且7月28日跌停；当前只是财报前卖方读出，台股已收盘且无可执行同向空头边界，等待7月30日正式财报新信号。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 泰达电已发布2026年二季度财报、MD&A和相关公告，瑞银报告所引用的泰达电利润率基础事实并非7月28日首次出现。
- 瑞银将泰达电二季度GM/OpM低于UBSe解读为台达电二季度毛利率可能更软，同时预计下半年随涨价和三季度销售反弹改善。
- 台股7月28日盘中重挫逾2000点，台达电跌停至1580元，说明负面定价已与大盘风险一起释放，盘后再做同向交易窗口不佳。市场反应:台达电（2308.TW）从前收1755元跌停至1580元。
关键理由
- 瑞银报告的新增点是把泰达电二季度GM/OpM低于预期外推到台达电二季度毛利率可能弱于原先预估，但台达电正式二季度财报与法说将在7月30日披露。
- 泰达电二季度财报与MD&A已在7月24日由公司/泰国交易所披露，台达电7月24日和7月27日已连续下跌，7月28日又在台股大跌中跌停，边际新鲜度不足。
- 该信号偏负面但不是台达电自身正式下修指引，且台股当日已收盘并出现跌停，无法给出可执行的同向新空头交易。
主要风险
- 若7月30日台达电正式财报确认毛利率明显低于市场预期，仍可能触发新一轮盈利修正；需由财报新信号重判。
- 7月28日台股系统性急跌与个股基本面利空混在一起，单靠本报告难以区分剩余alpha。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
瑞银报告自身同时预计下半年受3%-5%涨价和三季度销售反弹改善，削弱把读出直接外推成可执行空头的确定性。
检索:Delta Electronics Taiwan Q2 2026 earnings July 30 2026 price hikes 3Q sales rebound 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
台达电已在7月28日跌停，且台股已收盘；即便方向偏空，也缺少可执行、未消化的做空窗口。
检索:台達電 2308 2026 7月28日 跌停 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,368 字
Delta's Thai subsidiary (65% owned/35% of sales): Q2 sales light as expected but GM/OpM below
Our Take
Delta Thailand weaker GM/OpM 26.8%/11.3% (200/60bp below UBSe) signals softer Q2 Delta GMs. We previewed Delta Taiwan GM -100bp QoQ but could be even softer on component price hikes/expedites. We expect 2H better w/3-5% price hikes & 3Q sales rebound.
Company Description
Delta Electronics provides computer switching power supply solutions, as well as video display and electronics components, for computers, smartphones, telecom and industrial products. Founded in 1971, the firm has production bases in Taiwan, China, Thailand and India. In 2023, its power electronics, infrastructure and automation segments contributed 62%, 25% and 13% of revenue, respectively.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We base our price target on PE multiple valuation.
Delta's businesses include SPS and components for a variety of end-applications, video displays and data networking subsystem and system products. Any changes in these end-markets could affect our forecasts for Delta. Investment risk could increase/decrease on any deviation from our expectations for end-market demand and competition.
Downside risks for Delta include: severe supply chain constraints; weaker-than-expected PC/server demand; a slower-than-expected IA recovery; and a slower ramp of 5G in 2022.
Our Take
Delta Thailand weaker GM/OpM 26.8%/11.3% (200/60bp below UBSe) signals softer Q2 Delta GMs. We previewed Delta Taiwan GM -100bp QoQ but could be even softer on component price hikes/expedites. We expect 2H better w/3-5% price hikes & 3Q sales rebound.
Company Description
Delta Electronics provides computer switching power supply solutions, as well as video display and electronics components, for computers, smartphones, telecom and industrial products. Founded in 1971, the firm has production bases in Taiwan, China, Thailand and India. In 2023, its power electronics, infrastructure and automation segments contributed 62%, 25% and 13% of revenue, respectively.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We base our price target on PE multiple valuation.
Delta's businesses include SPS and components for a variety of end-applications, video displays and data networking subsystem and system products. Any changes in these end-markets could affect our forecasts for Delta. Investment risk could increase/decrease on any deviation from our expectations for end-market demand and competition.
Downside risks for Delta include: severe supply chain constraints; weaker-than-expected PC/server demand; a slower-than-expected IA recovery; and a slower ramp of 5G in 2022.
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