摩根士丹利称欣兴二季度毛利率和营业利润超预期并维持增持

Unimicron: 2Q26 GM beat with good cost control; OW
• GM was 24.8% (+680bps q/q, +1,170bps y/y), 270bps above our estimate and 280bps above the Street.
• OP was NT$6,651mn (+141% q/q, +341% y/y), 30% above our estimate and 22% above the Street, for OpM of 15.5% (+810bps q/q, +1,090bps y/y).
• Non-op income was exceptionally high at NT$8,925mn, which could be attributed to gains on financial assets.
• Thus, NP came in at NT$13.1bn (+160% q/q), 238% above our estimate and 153% above the Street, for EPS of NT$8.45.
Capex for 2026 is raised NT$19.7bn, to NT$53.7bn: The purchase order of long-lead time equipment increases NT$17.6bn, to NT$31.7bn.
Management should be able to provide more color on the quarter and outlook during its post-earnings briefing at 2 PM HKT tomorrow.
See our preview.
Key Takeaways
We attribute Unimicron’s sequential margin expansion in 2Q primarily to price increases and higher utilization across both its ABF and BT substrate businesses.
This is consistent with our supply-chain checks, which indicated stronger pricing for ABF and BT substrates during the quarter...
...driven by raw material cost inflation and tightening supply.
The 2Q GM improvement exceeded both our preview and broader buy-side expectations, but was in line with the more bullish investor forecasts.
Stay OW. We continue to prefer Unimicron to NYPCB and Zhen Ding on a 12-month view.
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Unimicron (3037.TW)
Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)
Risks to Downside
n Sudden demand shortfall
n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
n Intensifying competition
n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity
Zhen Ding (4958.TW)
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 10%, a medium-term growth rate of 15% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
n Higher-than-expected F-PCB content increase for iPhones
n Better-than-expected production yield/share allocation for SLP
n Share gains on higher margin F-PCB pieces
Risks to Downside
n Worse-than-expected iPhone sell-through
n Lower-than-expected F-PCB content increase for iPhones
n Worse-than-expected production yield/share allocation for SLP
n Increasing competition from Chinese peers, intensifying pricing pressure
Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW)
Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.3% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
n Better-than-expected ABF and BT demand
n Faster-than-expected pickup in AI and 5G demand
n Stronger-than-expected ASP hike