花旗Codex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 02:03:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 02:15:58·⚡ 决策 07-29 02:18:11 +2m13s·90.7 天前
花旗上调緯穎目标价至9500元并看好Trainium 3、Helios与TPU项目贡献
花旗将緯穎2026/27/28年盈利预测上调6%/33%/30%，核心依据是普通服务器需求、AWS Trainium 3量产、AMD Helios与2027年Google TPU潜在项目。
📄 原文花旗↗ 原文
Wiwynn (6669.TW): More drivers in sight; Buy
Looking into the coming quarters, we see multiple drivers including 1) sustained regular server demand in 2H26, 2) ramp…
不做 緯穎（6669.TW）
研报上修方向利多但不是公司级新订单，且6669.TW近5日已涨22.63%、距52周高点仅2.3%，财报前预期已充分交易；当前不追高，等财报或公司订单确认后再由新信号判断。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 花旗发布緯穎研报，上调目标价至NT$9500并维持买入，明确把Trainium 3、Helios和Google TPU贡献纳入2026-2028年预测。市场反应:台股当时为2026-07-29盘前，尚未连续交易；但6669.TW截至2026-07-27近5日已涨22.63%。
- AWS Trainium与Blackwell交付、AI数据中心capex扩张的产业链逻辑此前已在内部KB被讨论，说明研报核心叙事并非完全低扩散。
- 2026-07-29 02:15 TW市场反应price_snapshot非一手6669.TW最新可用收盘价为NT$5745，近5日+22.63%、近20日+25.44%，距52周高点仅-2.3%，存在明显提前交易风险。市场反应:近5日走势为+6.7%、+10.0%、-0.5%、+4.8%、+0.3%。
关键理由
- 花旗将緯穎2026/27/28年盈利预测上调6%/33%/30%，核心依据是普通服务器需求、AWS Trainium 3量产、AMD Helios与2027年Google TPU潜在项目。
- 内部KB显示AWS Trainium与Google TPU需求链条确有行业级支撑，但本条仍是卖方研报上修，不是公司公告的新订单或正式中标。
- 緯穎近5日已涨22.63%、近20日涨25.44%，距离52周高点仅2.3%，本次研报到达前AI服务器链预期已明显重定价。
主要风险
- 研报上修落在8月7日财报前，若财报未确认Trainium 3量产节奏或TPU份额，容易出现预期兑现后的回落。
- stock_quote未能取得可下单所需的实时交易报价；已有price_snapshot只能支持price-in判断，不足以输出ENTER。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-09 · 影响 weakens
内部KB已有AWS、Google TPU与AI数据中心capex相关讨论，削弱本条研报作为低扩散新催化的边际新鲜度。
检索:Wiwynn Citi target NT$9500 Trainium 3 TPU Helios 2026 2027 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
stock_quote未取得实时价，price_snapshot显示近5日已大涨22.63%、近20日涨25.44%，追高性价比不足。
检索:6669.TW
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(7 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,096 字
Looking into the coming quarters, we see multiple drivers including 1) sustained regular server demand in 2H26, 2) ramp-up of AWS Trainium 3 from 3Q26 onward, and 3) AMD’s Helios likely from end-2026 onward. We also see Wiwynn enjoying a good chance to secure TPU project in 2027 and thus factor in the contribution in 2027/28E. We remain constructive on the AI trend despite the market’s recent concerns over the sustainability of CSPs’ capex. Thus, we factor in a lower PE multiple for our new TP of NT$9,500 (18x 2027E EPS) vs previous NT$8,000 (20x 2027E EPS). Reiterate our Buy rating.
2Q26 preview: better-than-expected regular server
We expect regular server to be the key contributor to its 2Q26 results with still limited shipments of AWS Trainium 3 server. Given higher regular server mix and change in accounting method (i.e., memory no longer recognized in Sales/COGS), we now expect a better 2Q26E GM profile of 8.3% vs 7.6% in 1Q26.
Trainium 3 starting to ramp
As per our check, we started to see initial shipments of Trainium 3 in June. From 3Q26 onward, we expect the AI ASIC server would enter into mass production, resulting in QoQ sales growth in 3Q/4Q26E. To note that, Trainium 3 would see a version of liquid-cooling solution, which would carry higher ASP. We expect the rising penetration of liquid-cooling solution to be a key driver to Trainium 3’s ASP.
AMD’s Helios and Google’s TPU to come
Based on our check, AMD’s Helios would likely ramp from 4Q26E at the earliest. We think contribution from AMD would be more meaningful in 2027E. For Google TPU, we now see Wiwynn enjoying a good chance to secure the project in 2027. We currently factor in contribution from TPU from 2027E onward with market share of around 10%.
Earnings/TP raise; reiterate Buy
We raise our 2026E/27E/28E earnings by 6%/33%/30% to factor in stronger regular server, ramp of Trainum 3 and contribution of TPU. We raise our TP to NT$9,500 (18x 2027E EPS) from previous NT$8,000 (20x 2027E EPS). We lower our PE multiple given recent cautious sentiment in the AI industry. Reiterate our Buy rating.
2Q26 preview: better-than-expected regular server
We expect regular server to be the key contributor to its 2Q26 results with still limited shipments of AWS Trainium 3 server. Given higher regular server mix and change in accounting method (i.e., memory no longer recognized in Sales/COGS), we now expect a better 2Q26E GM profile of 8.3% vs 7.6% in 1Q26.
Trainium 3 starting to ramp
As per our check, we started to see initial shipments of Trainium 3 in June. From 3Q26 onward, we expect the AI ASIC server would enter into mass production, resulting in QoQ sales growth in 3Q/4Q26E. To note that, Trainium 3 would see a version of liquid-cooling solution, which would carry higher ASP. We expect the rising penetration of liquid-cooling solution to be a key driver to Trainium 3’s ASP.
AMD’s Helios and Google’s TPU to come
Based on our check, AMD’s Helios would likely ramp from 4Q26E at the earliest. We think contribution from AMD would be more meaningful in 2027E. For Google TPU, we now see Wiwynn enjoying a good chance to secure the project in 2027. We currently factor in contribution from TPU from 2027E onward with market share of around 10%.
Earnings/TP raise; reiterate Buy
We raise our 2026E/27E/28E earnings by 6%/33%/30% to factor in stronger regular server, ramp of Trainum 3 and contribution of TPU. We raise our TP to NT$9,500 (18x 2027E EPS) from previous NT$8,000 (20x 2027E EPS). We lower our PE multiple given recent cautious sentiment in the AI industry. Reiterate our Buy rating.
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