摩根士丹利Codex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05:28:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 05:42:25·⚡ 决策 07-29 05:43:56 +1m31s·90.4 天前
Celestica二季度业绩和指引上修对智邦形成AI交换机需求读透
Celestica官方二季度收入47.0亿美元、调整后EPS 2.54美元并上修2026收入目标至205亿美元，验证800G、1.6T网络交换机和AI/ML算力需求仍强。
📄 原文摩根士丹利↗ 原文
Accton Technology Corporation: Read-across from Celestica's 2Q26 Results
Positive implications from Celestica's optimistic comments on the network switch and overall AI demand in 2026-27 and b…
不做 智邦（2345.TW）
不做：方向正面但不是智邦新增订单或上修，Celestica官方财报已在台股7月28日开盘前公开并经过一整天交易，本条券商读透的剩余edge不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Celestica发布二季度业绩并上修2026收入和EPS指引，这是本次读透的原始事实。
- 2026-07-28市场反应台湾市场交易时段非一手Celestica财报发布时间折合台湾时间为7月28日清晨，智邦已在7月28日台股交易时段有机会反映该信息。
- 摩根士丹利发布对智邦的读透纪要，观点正面但未提供智邦新增订单或上修数据。
关键理由
- Celestica官方二季度收入47.0亿美元、调整后EPS 2.54美元并上修2026收入目标至205亿美元，验证800G、1.6T网络交换机和AI/ML算力需求仍强。
- 智邦（2345.TW）自身披露网络应用设备和交换机是核心收入来源，并已布局51.2T、800G与102T/1.6T下一代交换机，读透方向与主营业务匹配。
- 但Celestica业绩在2026-07-27美股盘后已发布，台湾市场已在2026-07-28完整交易过一轮，本条摩根士丹利纪要只是二次解读，短线新鲜度不足。
主要风险
- 智邦（2345.TW）2026年已大幅上涨且估值较高，8月6日附近还有财报，读透利好容易被财报预期和前期AI交换机叙事吸收。
- Celestica同业强指引不等于智邦新增订单确认，未披露智邦自身客户、金额或出货上修。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
核心事实在Celestica官方财报已公开，台湾市场已交易过一轮，削弱次日再追智邦的边际新鲜度。
检索:Accton 2345 Celestica 2Q26 read across price in earnings July 2026 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,066 字
Accton Technology Corporation: Read-across from Celestica's 2Q26 Results
Positive implications from Celestica's optimistic comments on the network switch and overall AI demand in 2026-27 and beyond.
Celestica (CLS.N, NC, US$318.24) 2Q26 results:
• 2Q26 revenue of US$4,699mn (+16% QoQ/+62% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin of 8.2%, a record high, and non-GAAP EPS of US$2.54 (+18% QoQ/+83% YoY).
° Surpassed high end of guidance and 7%/10% above consensus for revenue/earnings, respectively.
° Drivers: Stronger CCS revenue (81% of the mix in 2Q26), including communications (networking) and enterprise (server+storage) growth of 62% and 167% YoY, respectively, vs. guidance 50% and 130% YoY.
• 3Q26 revenue guided at US$5,250-5,550mn (+15% QoQ/+69% YoY at the midpoint) vs. consensus at US$4,999mn and 2026 revenue target raised to US$20.5bn for revenue (+65% YoY vs. prior US$19bn).
° Drivers: Strong demand for network switches (ramps of 800G and initial shipments of 1.6T) and AI/ML compute as well as improved storage orders.
• 2027 revenue guided to grow over 65% YoY, off the high base this year.
° Drivers: Network switch (growing 800G, more 1.6T, AMD Helios scale up switch) and AI/ML compute (next-generation platform from its largest customer and customize rack for OpenAI).
• Other comments
° Samples for its CPO project will come out in 1H27 with mass production in 2H27.
° Component supply still tight, but guidance has taken that into consideration.
Our view:
• We see positive implications from Celestica's comments on the increasing demand from 800G switches and the ramp of 1.6T, on top of the continuous strength from 400G, extending into 2027.
• Component supply tightness remains an issue, but that could put big players, e.g., Accton and Celestica, better positioned to fulfill orders.
• We stay constructive on Accton, as it will continue to benefit from the secular growth in network switches amid increasing data traffic, spec upgrades, and a wider customer base as well as the AI accelerator modules on the initiatives for compute diversity.
Positive implications from Celestica's optimistic comments on the network switch and overall AI demand in 2026-27 and beyond.
Celestica (CLS.N, NC, US$318.24) 2Q26 results:
• 2Q26 revenue of US$4,699mn (+16% QoQ/+62% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin of 8.2%, a record high, and non-GAAP EPS of US$2.54 (+18% QoQ/+83% YoY).
° Surpassed high end of guidance and 7%/10% above consensus for revenue/earnings, respectively.
° Drivers: Stronger CCS revenue (81% of the mix in 2Q26), including communications (networking) and enterprise (server+storage) growth of 62% and 167% YoY, respectively, vs. guidance 50% and 130% YoY.
• 3Q26 revenue guided at US$5,250-5,550mn (+15% QoQ/+69% YoY at the midpoint) vs. consensus at US$4,999mn and 2026 revenue target raised to US$20.5bn for revenue (+65% YoY vs. prior US$19bn).
° Drivers: Strong demand for network switches (ramps of 800G and initial shipments of 1.6T) and AI/ML compute as well as improved storage orders.
• 2027 revenue guided to grow over 65% YoY, off the high base this year.
° Drivers: Network switch (growing 800G, more 1.6T, AMD Helios scale up switch) and AI/ML compute (next-generation platform from its largest customer and customize rack for OpenAI).
• Other comments
° Samples for its CPO project will come out in 1H27 with mass production in 2H27.
° Component supply still tight, but guidance has taken that into consideration.
Our view:
• We see positive implications from Celestica's comments on the increasing demand from 800G switches and the ramp of 1.6T, on top of the continuous strength from 400G, extending into 2027.
• Component supply tightness remains an issue, but that could put big players, e.g., Accton and Celestica, better positioned to fulfill orders.
• We stay constructive on Accton, as it will continue to benefit from the secular growth in network switches amid increasing data traffic, spec upgrades, and a wider customer base as well as the AI accelerator modules on the initiatives for compute diversity.
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