花旗Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 11:08:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 11:11:54·⚡ 决策 07-29 11:12:41 +47s·90.2 天前
花旗上调 Astera Labs 盈利预测并维持买入评级
花旗预计 Astera Labs 9月季度收入和 EPS 分别较市场预期高 3%/9%，并上调 FY2026-FY2028 EPS 预测。
📄 原文花旗↗ 原文
Preview – Investor Focus on Helios and Agentic AI Implications; Remain Buy CITI'S TAKE We remain constructive on ALAB h…
不做 Astera Labs（ALAB.US）
不做：这是财报前卖方预览和目标价上调，缺少公司公告、订单金额或客户侧确认；距离 2026-08-04 财报很近，短线 edge 主要取决于即将披露的实际业绩和指引。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-29 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 花旗预计 Astera Labs 9月季度收入和 EPS 分别较市场预期高 3%/9%，并上调 FY2026-FY2028 EPS 预测。
- 研报核心仍是财报前预览和估值目标调整，未披露新增订单、客户确认或可独立验证的公司级硬催化。
主要风险
- Astera Labs 将于 2026-08-04 盘后披露财报，当前研报观点容易在财报前被预期和仓位提前反映。
- 若财报未验证 Trainium3、Scorpio、CXL/retimer 放量节奏，研报上修可能快速失效。
原文全文
展开原文 · 971 字
Preview – Investor Focus on Helios and Agentic AI Implications; Remain Buy
CITI'S TAKE
We remain constructive on ALAB heading into its Jun-Q results after market close on 8/4. We model Jun-Q revenue/EPS to be mostly in line with guidance but expect a 3%/9% revenue/EPS upside to Sep-Q vs Street. We continue to expect ALAB content’s $/Trainium3 with AMZN to reach $600+ by the end of 2026E (up 5x+ vs Trainium2). Beyond Aries and Scorpio, we incrementally see ALAB as a key beneficiary of both agentic CPUs and memory via CXL. We subsequently revised up our FY2026/FY2027/FY2028E EPS by 5%/15%/24% on a continued retimer demand amid higher AI accelerators expectations, and Taurus and Scorpio ramp (see details in body). We therefore raise our TP to $315 on ~$8 FY2028E EPS and consistent 40x forward PE. Key questions going into earnings are: 1) traction of Scorpio for scale-up and UALINK; 2) ALAB Helios content; and 3) update on TAM amid CXL and retimer. Remain Buy.
CITI'S TAKE
We remain constructive on ALAB heading into its Jun-Q results after market close on 8/4. We model Jun-Q revenue/EPS to be mostly in line with guidance but expect a 3%/9% revenue/EPS upside to Sep-Q vs Street. We continue to expect ALAB content’s $/Trainium3 with AMZN to reach $600+ by the end of 2026E (up 5x+ vs Trainium2). Beyond Aries and Scorpio, we incrementally see ALAB as a key beneficiary of both agentic CPUs and memory via CXL. We subsequently revised up our FY2026/FY2027/FY2028E EPS by 5%/15%/24% on a continued retimer demand amid higher AI accelerators expectations, and Taurus and Scorpio ramp (see details in body). We therefore raise our TP to $315 on ~$8 FY2028E EPS and consistent 40x forward PE. Key questions going into earnings are: 1) traction of Scorpio for scale-up and UALINK; 2) ALAB Helios content; and 3) update on TAM amid CXL and retimer. Remain Buy.
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