KLA财报后上调WFE展望至低1500亿美元区间，但市场反应为负

KLA reported modest “beat and raise” results. Management lifted wafer fab equipment (WFE) to the low-$150B range from the prior ~$140B view, implying mid-20% growth. The company highlighted improving visibility into 2027 demand, supported by ongoing capacity expansions, new fab construction projects, and accelerating customer investment activity. KLA expects roughly 20% second-half growth. Gross margins for CY26 move to ~62.5% or 50bps higher and guided flat Q/Q for the Sep-Q. We adjust our FY26/27/28 EPS 2%/7%/1% and maintain Buy/TP of $290 using 38x P/E vs prior 40x multiple on revised 2028 earnings power to reflect lower market multiples.
CY27/28 Growth Outlook
Management does not agree with the view that KLA will undergrow WFE in CY26, noting current guidance implies semi PC growth faster than the low-20% company growth. Supply constraints limited shipments in 1H26, but those constraints are easing, supporting a stronger 2H26. Looking into CY27, management expressed higher confidence given less supply constraints, broader leading-edge investments, new node ramps, greenfield DRAM and some NAND investments, and ongoing advanced packaging expansion. Management also emphasized that KLA is demonstrating stronger performance late in node ramps and during conventional memory upgrade cycles than it historically would have.
RPO/Backlog Visibility
Total backlog increased roughly 60% versus the prior fiscal year-end. Management did not disclose the split between shipments within 12 months versus beyond 12 months but noted that current backlog is less China-fab driven and more concentrated in leading-edge customers. As a result, backlog duration is likely shorter than during the 2021-22 cycle, when many orders were tied to long-dated China greenfield projects and facility construction schedules.
Gross Margins
Memory remains a cost headwind because KLA consumes significant amounts of memory and management expects memory pricing to remain elevated through 2027. Once normalizing, the lower memory costs should become a tailwind to gross margins. Management reiterated confidence in maintaining its long-term 60-65% incremental gross margin framework. On mix, services remain meaningfully dilutive at the gross margin line, while systems margins are substantially higher in the 70s. Advanced packaging margins are also expected to improve over time and likely cross over corporate gross margin next year.