BernsteinCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 15:53:07时区推断·⟳ 抓取 15:57:50·⚡ 决策 07-29 15:59:25 +1m35s·90.1 天前
伯恩斯坦称KLA四季度业绩和指引略超预期但盘后走弱
KLA四季度收入、毛利率和EPS均略高于Street，下一季度指引也小幅高于一致预期，管理层还上调CY26 WFE预期。
📄 原文Bernstein↗ 原文
KLA Corporation (KLAC): F4Q26 recap - She'll be comin' 'round the mountain when she comes...
KLAC F4Q26 results were good ($3.658B/62.4%/$1.05 vs Street $3.600B/61.9%/$1.00) on continued strong product revenues g…
不做 KLA（KLAC.US）
财报与指引只是略超预期，且属于财报后研报复盘并已出现盘后走弱；大市值半导体设备龙头缺少足够新的短线重估edge，不追多。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-29 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- KLA四季度收入、毛利率和EPS均略高于Street，下一季度指引也小幅高于一致预期，管理层还上调CY26 WFE预期。
- 但这是财报后卖方复盘而非新增一手披露，且文中明确股价盘后走弱，说明市场未把这组数据当成足够大的短线正向预期差。
- KLA为半导体设备大市值龙头，短线追多需要显著超预期或订单/指引级别重估；本次只是略超预期加中长期乐观表述。
主要风险
- 若后续公司电话会或其他卖方大幅上修FY27/FY28盈利，半导体设备板块仍可能随估值切换反弹。
- 财报日前后行情受FOMC和半导体设备板块整体风险偏好影响，单份研报难以形成独立交易边界。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 research_report · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
研报正文称尽管业绩和指引略好，KLA盘后仍走弱，说明市场对这组数据的即时定价偏谨慎。
检索:KLA F4Q26 aftermarket shares weakened guidance beat 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,376 字
KLA Corporation (KLAC): F4Q26 recap - She'll be comin' 'round the mountain when she comes...
KLAC F4Q26 results were good ($3.658B/62.4%/$1.05 vs Street $3.600B/61.9%/$1.00) on continued strong product revenues growth (+7% QoQ and 15% YoY); Services were also solid and grew above the target model at 17% YoY. China revenue was up ~$130M QoQ with revenue exposure rising slightly to ~26%.
F1Q27 (June-Q) guidance was a bit above ($4.000B/62.5%/$1.16 vs Street $3.943B/62.1%/$1.10), and management sees acceleration, indicating 2HCY26 up ~20% vs the first half (and thereby suggesting Dec-Q at ~$4.5B, solidly above consensus). GMs are seen at ~62.5%, 40 bps above consensus despite continued tariffs and DRAM headwinds.
Overall, management noted further strengthening market momentum since last earnings, and now sees CY26 WFE in the low $150B range (vs $140B prior) and sees similar growth in CY27 (up mid-20’s implying ~$190B in WFE next year).
Despite all this, the shares weakened in the aftermarket (though perhaps not surprising in this earnings season) given the near-term upside into next quarter, while solid, was not huge (yet). That being said, while the entire industry remains cleanroom-constrained in the near-term, and KLAC themselves suffered from supply issues earlier in the year, those constraints are now easing, with clear acceleration into the end of the calendar year, and the set-up into CY27 continues to look really good to us as fab space comes online and spending in the company’s key areas (especially leading edge logic, DRAM, and packaging) climbs. Long term secular drivers around increasing process control intensity, packaging etc remain as well, and the overall WFE demand environment seems likely to continue climbing if AI buildouts continue. And valuations, while still a bit pricey, are a bit easier after the recent group sell-off.
We understand the recent semicap angst but think the space can still be a good place to be. Increasing ests and rolling valuation horizon forward fo FY28 (vs avg FY27/28 prior); PT to $225 (35x, unchanged, on FY28E EPS of $6.52). We rate KLAC OP.
Investment Implications
KLAC (Outperform, $225 PT): Amid positive WFE trends KLAC possesses structural growth drivers, a strong and durable competitive position, lower China replacement risk, and disciplined capital allocation, warranting premium valuation.
KLAC F4Q26 results were good ($3.658B/62.4%/$1.05 vs Street $3.600B/61.9%/$1.00) on continued strong product revenues growth (+7% QoQ and 15% YoY); Services were also solid and grew above the target model at 17% YoY. China revenue was up ~$130M QoQ with revenue exposure rising slightly to ~26%.
F1Q27 (June-Q) guidance was a bit above ($4.000B/62.5%/$1.16 vs Street $3.943B/62.1%/$1.10), and management sees acceleration, indicating 2HCY26 up ~20% vs the first half (and thereby suggesting Dec-Q at ~$4.5B, solidly above consensus). GMs are seen at ~62.5%, 40 bps above consensus despite continued tariffs and DRAM headwinds.
Overall, management noted further strengthening market momentum since last earnings, and now sees CY26 WFE in the low $150B range (vs $140B prior) and sees similar growth in CY27 (up mid-20’s implying ~$190B in WFE next year).
Despite all this, the shares weakened in the aftermarket (though perhaps not surprising in this earnings season) given the near-term upside into next quarter, while solid, was not huge (yet). That being said, while the entire industry remains cleanroom-constrained in the near-term, and KLAC themselves suffered from supply issues earlier in the year, those constraints are now easing, with clear acceleration into the end of the calendar year, and the set-up into CY27 continues to look really good to us as fab space comes online and spending in the company’s key areas (especially leading edge logic, DRAM, and packaging) climbs. Long term secular drivers around increasing process control intensity, packaging etc remain as well, and the overall WFE demand environment seems likely to continue climbing if AI buildouts continue. And valuations, while still a bit pricey, are a bit easier after the recent group sell-off.
We understand the recent semicap angst but think the space can still be a good place to be. Increasing ests and rolling valuation horizon forward fo FY28 (vs avg FY27/28 prior); PT to $225 (35x, unchanged, on FY28E EPS of $6.52). We rate KLAC OP.
Investment Implications
KLAC (Outperform, $225 PT): Amid positive WFE trends KLAC possesses structural growth drivers, a strong and durable competitive position, lower China replacement risk, and disciplined capital allocation, warranting premium valuation.
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