汇丰控股Codex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:18:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:21:29·⚡ 决策 07-29 20:40:30 +1h19m·89.8 天前
Bloom Energy二季度业绩大超预期并上调2026年指引，但盘前已大幅重定价
Bloom Energy二季度收入约10.7亿美元、调整后EPS约0.78美元，显著高于市场预期，并将2026年收入指引上调至39亿-42亿美元。
📄 原文汇丰控股↗ 原文
Bloom Energy Corp (BE US): Buy: Another beat and raise for the new "standard"
◆ Revenue topped USD1bn while Services non-GAAP gross margins cross 20%, with management lifting 2026 guidance ◆ Backlo…
不做 Bloom Energy（BE.US）
业绩和上调指引本身利好，但公司财报已在前一日晚间发布且主流媒体广泛扩散，盘前已约+11%重定价；本条HSBC研报没有新增订单或指引增量，不追高。
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研究档案
消息传播链
- 公司此前公告将在2026-07-28盘后发布二季度财报并召开业绩电话会，说明该财报是排期内事件。
- WSJ报道Bloom二季度销售和利润大幅增长并上调全年展望，显示财报已进入主流媒体传播。市场反应:报道提到盘后股价跳涨并反映业绩超预期。
- Barron's称Bloom盘前约185.83美元、涨约11%，市场已在开盘前完成显著重定价。市场反应:BE.US盘前约+11%。
- HSBC维持买入和350美元目标价，重点复述业绩超预期、backlog增长和AI onsite power定位，但不是公司首发。
关键理由
- Bloom Energy二季度收入约10.7亿美元、调整后EPS约0.78美元，显著高于市场预期，并将2026年收入指引上调至39亿-42亿美元。
- 这是一条真实的正面财报催化，但财报发布时间在7月28日美股盘后，当前已被主流财经媒体广泛报道且盘前已跳涨约11%。
- 业绩排期本身可预期，当前信号来自卖方研报复述，新增信息主要是目标价和解读，不是新的公司级订单或指引增量。
主要风险
- 若开盘继续高开，追多面临财报利好兑现和高开低走风险。
- Bloom股价2026年以来已大幅上涨，AI onsite power叙事拥挤，短线对新增研报解读的边际反应可能弱于财报本身。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
未发现否定业绩的官方反证，但多家媒体显示财报已广泛传播且盘前已跳涨，削弱开盘追多edge。
检索:Bloom Energy stock premarket July 29 2026 Q2 results guidance 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
媒体提到此前存在做空报告和中国材料依赖争议，公司否认；该风险不推翻业绩利好，但增加追高波动风险。
检索:Bloom Energy short seller report China materials risk Q2 2026 原文 ↗
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原文全文
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◆ Revenue topped USD1bn while Services non-GAAP gross margins cross 20%, with management lifting 2026 guidance
◆ Backlog is growing at a faster pace than revenue as Bloom has become the “standard for AI onsite power”
◆ Maintain Buy with unchanged TP of USD350.00
Record 2Q26 results.
Bloom reported another record quarter, driven by strong products deliveries and improving margins. Revenue increased 42% q-o-q and 166% y-o-y to top USD1bn, beating our USD822m estimate by 30% and Bloomberg consensus estimate of USD839m by 27%. The non-GAAP gross margin of 34.3% increased c280bp q-o-q and c605bp y-o-y, beating both ours/Bloomberg estimates of 30%/32%. The non-GAAP operating income of USD239m jumped from USD29m a year ago and was 72%/82% above ours/Bloomberg estimates of USD139/132m, respectively, with the non-GAAP diluted EPS of USD0.77 also a beat over ours/consensus estimates of USD0.45/0.40 and the Street high of USD0.55/share.
Cash flow jumped for customer deposits.
Cash from operations was USD226m and included USD212m of customer consideration assets or “upfront share‑based consideration payable to a customer’s customer.” We believe this signals Bloom’s growing backlog, which has increased significantly from USD20bn as of 31 December. Thus far this year, AEP confirmed it has exercised options for a substantial portion of its 1GW agreement with Bloom, Oracle contracted an initial deployment of 1.2GW, and Brookfield expanded its strategic partnership by fivefold. In addition, we count nearly 600MW of incremental products to be deployed this year. CEO KR Sridhar indicated Bloom’s “backlog is growing at a faster pace than revenue,” as the company has “emerged as a standard for on-site power.”
Raising 2026 guidance.
For the second straight quarter, Bloom raised its 2026 guidance for revenue by 12.5% at the midpoint to USD3.9-4.2bn (implies +98% y-o-y), non-GAAP operating income by 26% at the midpoint to USD800-900m (up 285% y-o-y), and EPS by 32% to USD2.55-2.85 (from USD1.85-2.25 and USD0.76 in 2025). Non-GAAP gross margin guidance remains 34% (up c375bps y-o-y). For reference, the Street high estimate for 2026 was USD4,282m for revenue, 36.8% gross margin, USD796 operating income, and USD2.57 EPS. We have increased our 2026 estimates to be in line with guidance.
Maintain Buy and TP of USD350.
Our TP is based on a DCF with an exit multiple of 30x EV/EBITDA (down from 35x for improved visibility) for our estimates beyond 2031e, merited by accelerated growth and positive cash flow. The shares are trading at a 39.2x blended forward EV/EBITDA multiple per Bloomberg, which is c40% below the trailing 12-month average of 65.7x. We continue to rate the shares Buy for the company’s strong execution, accelerating growth outlook, and clean balance sheet.
MAINTAIN BUY
Buy: Another beat and raise for the new “standard”
◆ Backlog is growing at a faster pace than revenue as Bloom has become the “standard for AI onsite power”
◆ Maintain Buy with unchanged TP of USD350.00
Record 2Q26 results.
Bloom reported another record quarter, driven by strong products deliveries and improving margins. Revenue increased 42% q-o-q and 166% y-o-y to top USD1bn, beating our USD822m estimate by 30% and Bloomberg consensus estimate of USD839m by 27%. The non-GAAP gross margin of 34.3% increased c280bp q-o-q and c605bp y-o-y, beating both ours/Bloomberg estimates of 30%/32%. The non-GAAP operating income of USD239m jumped from USD29m a year ago and was 72%/82% above ours/Bloomberg estimates of USD139/132m, respectively, with the non-GAAP diluted EPS of USD0.77 also a beat over ours/consensus estimates of USD0.45/0.40 and the Street high of USD0.55/share.
Cash flow jumped for customer deposits.
Cash from operations was USD226m and included USD212m of customer consideration assets or “upfront share‑based consideration payable to a customer’s customer.” We believe this signals Bloom’s growing backlog, which has increased significantly from USD20bn as of 31 December. Thus far this year, AEP confirmed it has exercised options for a substantial portion of its 1GW agreement with Bloom, Oracle contracted an initial deployment of 1.2GW, and Brookfield expanded its strategic partnership by fivefold. In addition, we count nearly 600MW of incremental products to be deployed this year. CEO KR Sridhar indicated Bloom’s “backlog is growing at a faster pace than revenue,” as the company has “emerged as a standard for on-site power.”
Raising 2026 guidance.
For the second straight quarter, Bloom raised its 2026 guidance for revenue by 12.5% at the midpoint to USD3.9-4.2bn (implies +98% y-o-y), non-GAAP operating income by 26% at the midpoint to USD800-900m (up 285% y-o-y), and EPS by 32% to USD2.55-2.85 (from USD1.85-2.25 and USD0.76 in 2025). Non-GAAP gross margin guidance remains 34% (up c375bps y-o-y). For reference, the Street high estimate for 2026 was USD4,282m for revenue, 36.8% gross margin, USD796 operating income, and USD2.57 EPS. We have increased our 2026 estimates to be in line with guidance.
Maintain Buy and TP of USD350.
Our TP is based on a DCF with an exit multiple of 30x EV/EBITDA (down from 35x for improved visibility) for our estimates beyond 2031e, merited by accelerated growth and positive cash flow. The shares are trading at a 39.2x blended forward EV/EBITDA multiple per Bloomberg, which is c40% below the trailing 12-month average of 65.7x. We continue to rate the shares Buy for the company’s strong execution, accelerating growth outlook, and clean balance sheet.
MAINTAIN BUY
Buy: Another beat and raise for the new “standard”
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