KLA财报后获摩根大通上调目标价并上修WFE展望，但盘前价格未确认利好

KLAC delivered a strong beat-and-raise and lifted its CY26 WFE outlook (from $140B to the low $150B range), implying low 20%+ growth in total revenues and, by our estimates, 28-30% growth in its equipment systems business. Underpinning the print and the strengthened forward outlook was broad-based momentum across leading-edge foundry/logic (3nm capacity build-outs, 2nm ramp acceleration, sub-2nm visibility), new DRAM greenfield expansion, and advanced packaging (CoWoS expansion, emerging SoIC, and rising hybrid bonding adoption), reinforced by accelerating hyperscaler custom silicon design starts, larger AI accelerator die sizes, and the multi-year wave of new greenfield fab construction supporting the CY27/CY28 capacity build-outs.
Through the 1H of the year, all of its segments (process control, EPC, and services) grew DD% Y/Y. Mgmt also raised its CY26 WFE view to low-$150B+ (from $140B on the last earnings call), with the upward revision reflecting accelerating customer urgency around new fab build-outs, continued strength in advanced node investments, and an expanding advanced packaging contribution.
Furthermore, the team articulated visibility for continued “significant” growth in CY27 and even put out a conservative $190B WFE (+25% Y/Y) baseline view for CY27 (first time that KLA has quantified the next CY WFE view this early).
The company’s strong backlog exiting June ($12.5-$12.6B) was up 60% Y/Y (book-to-bill of1.4x) and reflective of the strong forward growth profile and visibility.
The advanced packaging process control product portfolio is now also expected to grow from approximately $635M in CY25 to approximately $1.1B in CY26 (70%+ growth), well above KLAC’s prior expectation of >50% growth, driven by accelerating demand, 2.5D to 3.5D transition, and meaningful share gains.
On gross margins, the DRAM cost headwind has marginally worsened (now >100bps), but the team is partially offsetting the impact with higher volumes and cost efficiencies.
Looking into CY27, we believe the team is confident in driving 63%+ GMs on continued volume increases, cost efficiencies, and platform pricing increases on new system/upgrades introductions across inspection, metrology, and advanced packaging systems.
The customer pipeline for next year looks strong, with TSMC, Intel, Samsung foundry, TeraFab, Rapidus, Micron, Hynix, and Samsung all contributing to a solid growth profile.
We reiterate our OW rating - KLAC remains our top pick in semicaps, supported by the structural process control intensity inflection, a widening competitive moat, accelerating advanced packaging contribution, services flywheel, and a long-term financial framework that mgmt has acknowledged is likely conservative under current visibility. We raise our forward estimates to reflect the strengthening outlook, and consequently raise our Dec-27 PT to $238 (from $200 prior).
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
We believe semiconductor capital spending is in the midst of a technology-driven cycle for 3nm/2nm Foundry/Logic, sub-15nm DRAM, and high layer count 3D NAND. As device manufacturing complexities increase, the need to analyze defects and metrology issues at critical points in the IC manufacturing processes increases significantly.
The company has diversified end-market exposure (e.g., PCB, SPTS, Advanced Packaging) through the acquisition of Orbotech.
Served market expansion in its end markets, market share gains, technological leadership, and premium margin profile should enable the company to outgrow (by 5%-plus) the overall market and drive an EPS CAGR of 15-20% over the next three years.
Valuation
Our PT of $238 is based on ~34x applied to our estimate of $6.88 in earnings power exiting CY27. This reflects a premium to the capital equipment peer group multiple (~30x), which we contend is warranted given KLAC’s superior margin profile and consistent execution.