摩根大通Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:23:11时区推断·⟳ 抓取 18:27:53·⚡ 决策 07-29 18:29:25 +1m32s·90.1 天前
日立1QFY26业绩全线超预期并上调全年指引
日立1QFY26收入和调整后EBITA分别较共识高约9%和17%，全年调整后EBITA指引上调至1.52万亿日元、较当前共识高约11%。
📄 原文摩根大通↗ 原文
JPM | Hitachi (6501 JP) 1QFY26 First Glance: Beat Across All Segments & Guidance Raised
Hitachi (6501 JP) 1QFY26 First Glance: Beat Across All Segments & Guidance Raised • 2QFY26 Results - BEAT: Hitachi repo…
不做 日立（6501.JP）
财报和指引上修方向为正，但这是日历内大型日股财报，摩根大通反馈称投资者不预期估值重估；盘后已明牌，次日若高开追多收益风险比不足，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 日立官网列出2026年7月29日第一季度合并财报及面向机构投资者、分析师和媒体的网络会议，确认事件为官方财报披露。
- 摩根大通快评称日立业绩全分部超预期并上调指引，但投资者不认为本次财报足以改变股权叙事。市场反应:事件发生时日本市场已收盘，下一交易日才可交易。
关键理由
- 日立1QFY26收入和调整后EBITA分别较共识高约9%和17%，全年调整后EBITA指引上调至1.52万亿日元、较当前共识高约11%。
- 能源订单同比增长87%是最清晰的结构性亮点，但公司本身是日本大型综合电机集团，催化主要是财报修正而非新订单或平台级新叙事。
- 摩根大通初步反馈明确称投资者不预期本次财报带来估值重估，更多只是跟随盈利修正上行。
主要风险
- 财报日追多容易在次日开盘被一次性定价，若高开过多则收益风险比迅速恶化。
- 能源利润率假设仍偏保守，且市场最关注该分部利润率能否继续上修。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-04-28 · 影响 weakens
4月日立在上调能源业务目标后股价仍下跌，说明大型日股财报/目标上修若不足以改变叙事，容易出现sell-the-news。
检索:Hitachi shares fall despite inline results raises energy targets April 2026 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,667 字
Hitachi (6501 JP) 1QFY26 First Glance: Beat Across All Segments & Guidance Raised
• 2QFY26 Results - BEAT: Hitachi reported 1QFY26 Rev of Y2730bn (9.6%/9.3% beat on JPMe/Cons) and adj. EBITA of Y294.3bn (17.7%/17.4% above JPMe/Cons). Revenue growth was+20% YoY, ex-F/X +12% YoY. ME impact less than previously guided: -Y16bn/-Y7bn Rev/OP vs expected -Y40bn/-Y20bn.
• All 4 sectors beat in Rev/OP vs JPMe/Cons - Energy segment 6.2% above Cons Rev, 25.1% above Cons OP.
• Order Intake: DSS +7%YoY, Energy +87% YoY, Mobility +25% YoY, CI +25% YoY. Energy segment order intake growth acceleration notable with +50% QoQ/+87% YoY.
• Full year guidance raised: Rev Y11.1tr -> Y11.7tr (3% above Cons), Adj EBITA Y1,420bn -> Y1520bn (11% above Cons) Revision is due to strong performance in all 4 segments, favorable F/X lower-than-estimated ME impact. Energy adj EBITA margin guidance at14.2% (same as14.2% in 1QFY26).No change in share buyback (Y550bn) and dividends (Y250bn).
• JPM Valuation: Junya Ayada rates Hitachi as OW, PT of Y6,000 based, set 10% above the theoratical px derived from aSPT{ model based on our FY27 forecast. (Junya Ayada’s latest on Hitachi)
• Initial Feedback: Positive on the degree of the beat, but investors didn't expect re-rating off today’s print as the results don't change much of the stock's equity narrative, while expecting the stock to move in accordance with earnings revision up (new adj. OP guidance 11% above current consensus). Key positive feedback was on the degree of beat across all segments, energy order growth acceleration. Negative feedback was on its conservative energy margin assumption (where investors care the most).
• 2QFY26 Results - BEAT: Hitachi reported 1QFY26 Rev of Y2730bn (9.6%/9.3% beat on JPMe/Cons) and adj. EBITA of Y294.3bn (17.7%/17.4% above JPMe/Cons). Revenue growth was+20% YoY, ex-F/X +12% YoY. ME impact less than previously guided: -Y16bn/-Y7bn Rev/OP vs expected -Y40bn/-Y20bn.
• All 4 sectors beat in Rev/OP vs JPMe/Cons - Energy segment 6.2% above Cons Rev, 25.1% above Cons OP.
• Order Intake: DSS +7%YoY, Energy +87% YoY, Mobility +25% YoY, CI +25% YoY. Energy segment order intake growth acceleration notable with +50% QoQ/+87% YoY.
• Full year guidance raised: Rev Y11.1tr -> Y11.7tr (3% above Cons), Adj EBITA Y1,420bn -> Y1520bn (11% above Cons) Revision is due to strong performance in all 4 segments, favorable F/X lower-than-estimated ME impact. Energy adj EBITA margin guidance at14.2% (same as14.2% in 1QFY26).No change in share buyback (Y550bn) and dividends (Y250bn).
• JPM Valuation: Junya Ayada rates Hitachi as OW, PT of Y6,000 based, set 10% above the theoratical px derived from aSPT{ model based on our FY27 forecast. (Junya Ayada’s latest on Hitachi)
• Initial Feedback: Positive on the degree of the beat, but investors didn't expect re-rating off today’s print as the results don't change much of the stock's equity narrative, while expecting the stock to move in accordance with earnings revision up (new adj. OP guidance 11% above current consensus). Key positive feedback was on the degree of beat across all segments, energy order growth acceleration. Negative feedback was on its conservative energy margin assumption (where investors care the most).
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。