摩根大通称台达电二季度业绩大致符合预期、毛利好于悲观预期并维持增持

Post Taiwan market close on 29 July, Delta reported a largely in-line 2Q26 earnings print with better-than-feared GMs. Key highlights were:
• Slight 2Q26 earnings beat despite sequential margin decline. Delta’s 2Q26 GM came in at 35.6% vs. JPMe/BBGe of 36.1%/36.4%. We attribute the sequential GM decline (-1.36ppt) to raw material price increases and potential inventory provisioning related to delayed server power orders amid component shortages. That said, we believe the 2Q26 GM print was still above the recently lowered Street expectations, particularly after the Delta Thailand (DELTA TB; covered by Samuel Tan) earnings miss (2Q GM down ~5ppt QoQ, link). 2Q26 opex was higher than expected, up ~37% YoY, likely driven by higher R&D spend, logistic fees hike and increased employee bonuses. Non-OP gains came in better than expected, likely on FX gains, while minority interest was below Street estimates due to weaker earnings at Delta Thailand. Net-net, bottom-line results were ~5% above consensus.
• Solid 2H26 revenue outlook, with VR200 ramp timing the key swing factor. We expect Delta to deliver teens % QoQ revenue growth in both 3Q and 4Q26, supported by iPhone seasonality, product price increases (we estimate ~10%), and the VR200 server ramp (likely starting in late 3Q26). We also saw some backlog exiting 2Q26 due to silicon supply constraints, and expect a gradual improvement in supply over the next six months. While HVDC power rack adoption is likely to remain limited in the early stages of the VR200 rack cycle, we estimate VR200 power content per rack could still roughly double vs. GB200/GB300 (4x110kW power shelves vs. 6x3kW power shelves). The continued ramp in TPU modules is also positive for DC/DC momentum.
• GMs likely to rebound in 2H26; opex to remain elevated. We expect Delta’s 3Q26 GM to improve sequentially, supported by product price increases (from Sept) and a more favorable mix. A resilient GM trajectory should help ease investor concerns around pricing competition. However, opex is likely to stay elevated, with YoY growth remaining in the 30%+ range. Net-net, we still expect OPM to reach ~20% by 4Q26.
• Key questions for analyst meeting: Delta will host an analyst meeting at 15:00 HKT, after the market close Thursday. Key areas of focus include: (1) margin recovery trajectory in 2H26 and Opex outlook; (2) whether supply constraints will persist into 2H26 to cap the 2H26 revenue momentum; (3) timeline and magnitude of product price hikes; (4) update on 18.5kW+ PSU/Power rack/HVDC/SOFC development progress; and (5) liquid cooling and BBU outlook in 2H26.
• Stay OW. Delta stock has underperformed TAIEX by ~30% over the past two months, dragged by concerns around raw material cost inflation, competitive landscape, and the HVDC roll-out timeline. We believe the 2Q26 print should serve as a clearing event, and expect the stock to re-rate in 2H26 on margin recovery and a re-acceleration in revenue momentum. Delta remains a key beneficiary of the secular expansion in the data center power and thermal TAM. Key downside risks include delays in the Rubin server ramp and continued component shortages.