爱德万测试一季度业绩大幅超预期并上调全年指引

Advantest (6857): 1Q results: Strong results well above expectations, tester market headed for next growth phase
Positive: 1Q operating profit of ¥190 billion (+24% QoQ; Bloomberg consensus estimate ¥159.2 billion; our estimate ¥175 billion) and revised FY2026 guidance of ¥846 billion (+69% YoY; previously ¥627.5 billion; Bloomberg consensus estimate ¥708.5 billion; our estimate ¥778 billion) were both well above market expectations. Tester demand is growing not only for GPUs but also for custom ASICs and CPUs for AI inference computing, and Advantest plans to accelerate production capacity expansion. Advantest maintains a dominant market share in the SoC tester market, and emphasized that it sees potential for raising market share above 70%.
• 1Q results: Advantest reported 1Q sales of ¥367.5 billion (+12% QoQ, +39% YoY) and operating profit of ¥190 billion (+24% QoQ, +53% YoY; Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥159.2 billion; our estimate: ¥175 billion). Test system sales grew 13% QoQ, driven by HPC and AI demand. A breakdown shows SoC testers up 9% QoQ and memory testers up 30%. The operating margin rose to 52% (47% in both 4Q FY2025 and 1Q FY2025). In addition to sales growth, we think other contributors were high-margin SoC testers maintaining a high weighting within companywide sales of 71%, and limited valuation losses for inventory assets.
• FY2026 outlook: Advantest raised FY2026 sales guidance from ¥1,420 billion to ¥1,714 billion (+52% YoY; Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥1,522 billion; our estimate: ¥1,577.5 billion) and operating profit guidance from ¥627.5 billion to ¥846 billion (+69% YoY; ¥708.5 billion; ¥778 billion). It changed its USD/JPY assumption from ¥150 to ¥152. It raised operating margin guidance from 44% to 49%. While it forecasts the margin will expand from 44% in FY2025, it expects a decline from 52% in 1Q FY2026. We believe this reflects conservative estimates for memory costs and inventory valuation losses. Demand remains strong for GPUs and is also growing for CPUs and custom ASICs on growth in AI inference computing. In addition, Advantest maintains a high market share in the networking field, which it previously did not emphasize, and said its overall market share for SoC testers could rise above 70% in the future (66% in CY2025). For memory testers, although demand is growing for high-performance DRAM for AI inference, Advantest said its market share could decline in 2026 due to severe competition (61% in CY2025). However, it plans to release several new products with confirmed customers, and showed confidence in regaining market share. Advantest is also accelerating plans to expand SoC tester capacity (raising annual capacity from 3,000 units as of March 2025 to 5,000 units at end-FY2026 and 10,000 units in late 2028 to early 2029), and said it expects capacity to soon reach 5,000 units.
• Tester market: Advantest substantially raised its CY2026 SoC tester market outlook from $8.7–9.5 billion to $10.5–11.5 billion (midpoint +59% YoY) and memory tester market outlook from $2.2–2.7 billion to $2.5–3.0 billion (+31% YoY).
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Advantest (6857) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥41,000)
Investment Thesis
Growth in tester needs in connection with the lengthening of test times due to chip advances is a medium-term tailwind. We also expect a focus on Advantest’s close ties with key customers in terms of the increasing performance of semiconductors brought about by generative AI advances. Another key factor is whether visibility on ROE upside can be improved through M&A and other capital allocation.
Valuation
Our December 2026 price target of ¥41,000 is based on our FY2027 EPS estimate and a P/E of around 42x, 1 standard deviation above the 10-year historical average of around 29x. We add a premium for Advantest due to our expectations for earnings growth.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Upside Scenario to Price Target/Rating
• Increase in share of tester market
• More earnings opportunities as a result of M&A
• Growth in shareholder returns
Downside Scenario to Price Target/Rating
• Decline in share of tester market
• Inefficient capital allocation
• Slower growth in semiconductor capex market
• Deceleration in growth rate of test-time expansion
• Earnings growth moderating as demand shifts from new tester purchases to upgrades